Promising policy action brings hope amidst continued economic challenges: PwC's 2025 M&A mid-year update released

• Transformative policy actions could boost Canada's role in North American supply chains and stabilize ties with the US.
• Trend shows decline in inbound and locally sourced deals; overall deals activity comes in at approximately 1000 deals totalling $134B announced since January 2025.
• Canadian family offices rebound: deal values increased by 16% from 2023 to 2024, signaling renewed momentum.

TORONTO, June 18, 2025 /CNW/ - PwC Canada's 2025 mid-year Canadian M&A update highlights a pivotal moment for the Canadian economy. Amidst global uncertainty and a cooling domestic outlook, Canada is pursuing a bold policy agenda aimed at restoring national economic resilience. While these efforts are rooted in domestic priorities, they may also yield a valuable secondary benefit: a more stable and strategically aligned relationship with the United States.

"Canada's current policy direction focuses on building a stronger, more self-reliant economy," said Michael Dobner, National Leader of Economics and Policy Practice, PwC Canada. "This approach also helps foster a more constructive and complementary relationship with the US, one based on shared interests rather than dependency."

Economic update: Between January and May 2025, Canadian companies announced 996 deals totaling $134 billion. However, the report notes declines in inbound and locally sourced deals in Canada. This reflects a broader climate of caution, as businesses delay investments and expansion plans in response to persistent uncertainty. PwC's baseline projection for Canadian GDP growth in 2025 remains below 1%.

Despite these headwinds, Canada's trade position with the United States remains comparatively strong. Canadian exporters are generally benefiting from relatively low tariffs, especially when compared to countries like China, which continue to face significant trade barriers to the United States. This advantage can help some Canadian businesses to maintain or even grow their market share in the US, offering a rare bright spot in an otherwise subdued economic landscape. In this context, "the current negotiations between Canada and the United States, which benefit from Canada's new vision, may further strengthen Canada's relative trade position with the United States," added Dobner.

The report outlines a suite of policy priorities shaping Canada's new vision. Key priorities now include streamlining regulations, initiating large-scale infrastructure projects, increasing investment in defence and Arctic development, removing interprovincial trade barriers, fast-tracking the integration of artificial intelligence and changing the immigration system to focus on attracting highly skilled individuals to Canada. These initiatives are designed to address Canada's productivity and competitiveness challenges, and, if successful, will also position the country to play a more active role in North American supply chains and innovation ecosystems.

If early policy actions are interpreted by market players as genuine, practical and decisive, PwC Canada suggests that meaningful improvements in Canada's economic outlook could begin as early as 2026. All levels of government have a crucial role in providing these signals over the coming months.

While there is good reason for cautious optimism, the report notes that the global environment remains unpredictable. Potential global crises, financial crisis as a result of a loss of trust in the US dollar, or disruption of entire sectors by emerging technology could have significant consequences. Canadian businesses must stay vigilant, closely monitor global developments and adopt flexible, risk-aware strategies to navigate an uncertain future.

Opportunities for Canadian family offices: The report also highlights the evolving role of Canadian family offices, which are emerging as increasingly influential players in the investment landscape. After a period of decline beginning in 2021, family office deal activity is rebounding. In Canada, deal values rose by more than 16% from 2023 to 2024.

Key trends shaping this evolution:

• Club deals, where family offices co-invest with peers to access larger opportunities and share risk, are gaining traction globally. While only 23% of Canadian family office investments in 2024 were structured this way, compared to 71% globally in 2022, this gap signals untapped potential.
• Impact investing is on the rise. In 2024, Canadian family offices surpassed the 50% threshold for allocating capital to investments that generate measurable social or environmental impact alongside financial returns. These investments are increasingly aligned with national priorities such as productivity, innovation, and affordable housing.
  
  
• Direct investments, where family offices invest directly in businesses such as private equity, startups or M&A, have grown to represent 70% of global activity, up from a real estate-heavy focus a decade ago. In contrast, 69% of Canadian family office investments in 2024 remained in real estate, indicating potential opportunities to diversify investment portfolios. 

For more insights and to access the full report, visit
https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/services/deals/trends.html.

About PwC Canada:

At PwC Canada, we help clients build trust and reinvent so they can turn complexity into competitive advantage. We're a tech-forward, people-empowered network with more than 7,000 partners and staff in offices across the country. Across audit and assurance, tax and legal, deals and consulting, we help build, accelerate and sustain momentum.

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SOURCE PwC Management Services LP

For media inquiries please contact: Anuja Kale-Agarwal, National Communications Director, PwC Canada, [email protected]