The housing starts trend line increased for the second consecutive month in July

OTTAWA, ON, Aug. 16, 2023 /CNW/ - The housing starts trendline increased for the second consecutive month due to a healthy number of actual housing starts in July. The trend was 242,525 units, up 2.8% from 235,819 units in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly SAAR of total housing starts for all areas in Canada.

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

The standalone monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada decreased 10% in July (254,966 units) compared to June (283,498 units), which was the strongest month so far this year. Despite the monthly drop, total SAAR housing starts for all areas in Canada was 7.4% above the 5-year average.

The monthly SAAR of total urban starts (centres 10,000 population and over) decreased by 11%, with 234,857 units recorded in July. Multi-unit urban starts decreased 12% to 193,446 units, while single-detached urban starts decreased 4% to 41,411 units.

The Vancouver and Toronto CMAs saw decreases in total SAAR housing starts in July, with Vancouver down 23%, and Toronto down 29%. In contrast, the Montreal, Calgary, and Edmonton CMAs recorded respective increases of 12%, 33%, and 67% in total SAAR housing starts.

The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 20,109 units.

Quote:

"Despite a decrease in the SAAR of housing starts relative to last month, July saw a healthy number of actual housings starts from a historical perspective. This pushed the trend of housing starts upward for the second consecutive month. Market intelligence suggests multi-unit projects started in June and July were likely financed a few months prior, so, the effect of the most recent interest rate hikes on housing starts remains to be seen," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's Chief Economist.

Key Facts:

• Toronto and Vancouver have been performing well this year compared to last. Actual 2023 year-to-date housing starts were 35% and 49% higher than the same period in 2022 in Toronto and Vancouver respectively.
• Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data are accessible in English and French on our website and the CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
• Housing starts data is available on the eleventh business day each month. We will release the August housing starts data on September 18 at 8:15 AM ET.
• CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.
• Definitions and methodology to better understand the foundations of the Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys.

As a trusted source of housing information, CMHC provides unbiased housing-related data, research, and market information to help close knowledge gaps, and deepen understanding of complex housing issues to inform future policy decisions. Housing starts facilitate the analysis of monthly, quarterly, and year-over-year activity in the new home market. The data we collect as part of our Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys helps us obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply and is used as part of our various housing reports.

For more information, visit our website at https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en, and follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram.

Related Links:

• Spring 2023 Housing Market Outlook
• Latest Housing Supply Report (HSR)
• Housing Supply Report (HSR) — Fall Edition
• The road ahead for the economy and housing — fall 2022 update
• Canada's housing supply shortage: skilled labour capacity
• Understanding Canada's housing supply shortages

Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		July 2022	July 2023	%	July 2022	July 2023	%	July 2022	July 2023	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		78	42	-46	7	16	129	85	58	-32
P.E.I.		27	21	-22	16	51	219	43	72	67
N.S.		216	181	-16	545	266	-51	761	447	-41
N.B.		131	104	-21	356	306	-14	487	410	-16
Atlantic		452	348	-23	924	639	-31	1,376	987	-28
Qc		663	471	-29	3,720	2,313	-38	4,383	2,784	-36
Ont.		2,198	1,482	-33	6,047	6,865	14	8,245	8,347	1
Man.		273	136	-50	330	644	95	603	780	29
Sask.		141	86	-39	133	327	146	274	413	51
Alta.		1,356	1,122	-17	2,204	2,168	-2	3,560	3,290	-8
Prairies		1,770	1,344	-24	2,667	3,139	18	4,437	4,483	1
B.C.		672	428	-36	3,126	3,574	14	3,798	4,002	5
Canada (10,000+)		5,755	4,073	-29	16,484	16,530	0	22,239	20,603	-7
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		26	16	-38	130	14	-89	156	30	-81
Barrie		188	55	-71	141	61	-57	329	116	-65
Belleville - Quinte West		20	45	125	5	4	-20	25	49	96
Brantford		71	24	-66	110	41	-63	181	65	-64
Calgary		523	542	4	1,356	1,079	-20	1,879	1,621	-14
Chilliwack		17	12	-29	2	7	250	19	19	-
Drummondville		29	21	-28	4	33	##	33	54	64
Edmonton		625	443	-29	752	1,029	37	1,377	1,472	7
Fredericton		32	41	28	142	186	31	174	227	30
Greater/Grand Sudbury		8	35	338	22	87	295	30	122	307
Guelph		12	8	-33	17	185	##	29	193	##
Halifax		78	76	-3	417	209	-50	495	285	-42
Hamilton		92	27	-71	103	33	-68	195	60	-69
Kamloops		16	0	-100	10	0	-100	26	0	-100
Kelowna		52	32	-38	40	56	40	92	88	-4
Kingston		49	35	-29	22	368	##	71	403	468
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		93	60	-35	305	223	-27	398	283	-29
Lethbridge		30	27	-10	9	3	-67	39	30	-23
London		102	82	-20	204	60	-71	306	142	-54
Moncton		49	30	-39	185	97	-48	234	127	-46
Montréal		165	118	-28	1,944	854	-56	2,109	972	-54
Nanaimo		15	6	-60	90	9	-90	105	15	-86
Oshawa		103	97	-6	234	67	-71	337	164	-51
Ottawa-Gatineau		306	137	-55	1,824	779	-57	2,130	916	-57
Gatineau		70	47	-33	276	85	-69	346	132	-62
Ottawa		236	90	-62	1,548	694	-55	1,784	784	-56
Peterborough		41	10	-76	0	0	-	41	10	-76
Québec		102	59	-42	521	334	-36	623	393	-37
Red Deer		9	4	-56	2	6	200	11	10	-9
Regina		39	25	-36	44	10	-77	83	35	-58
Saguenay		36	17	-53	12	246	##	48	263	448
St. Catharines-Niagara		130	46	-65	26	101	288	156	147	-6
Saint John		28	17	-39	5	4	-20	33	21	-36
St. John's		68	34	-50	3	13	333	71	47	-34
Saskatoon		95	54	-43	77	308	300	172	362	110
Sherbrooke		42	22	-48	70	223	219	112	245	119
Thunder Bay		23	8	-65	19	0	-100	42	8	-81
Toronto		533	472	-11	2,882	4,728	64	3,415	5,200	52
Trois-Rivières		17	26	53	66	129	95	83	155	87
Vancouver		276	211	-24	1,700	2,751	62	1,976	2,962	50
Victoria		107	31	-71	861	428	-50	968	459	-53
Windsor		68	27	-60	90	23	-74	158	50	-68
Winnipeg		228	111	-51	243	621	156	471	732	55
Total		4,543	3,143	-31	14,689	15,409	5	19,232	18,552	-4
Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		June 2023	July 2023	%	June 2023	July 2023	%	June 2023	July 2023	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		422	385	-9	53	122	130	475	507	7
P.E.I.		142	169	19	120	612	410	262	781	198
N.S.		2,175	1,786	-18	11,134	3,168	-72	13,309	4,954	-63
N.B.		1,004	809	-19	2,966	3,654	23	3,970	4,463	12
Qc		3,559	4,726	33	21,992	25,276	15	25,551	30,002	17
Ont.		15,429	14,525	-6	101,423	80,244	-21	116,852	94,769	-19
Man.		1,548	1,328	-14	5,208	7,728	48	6,756	9,056	34
Sask.		934	871	-7	5,796	3,924	-32	6,730	4,795	-29
Alta.		11,376	12,052	6	14,585	25,748	77	25,961	37,800	46
B.C.		6,368	4,760	-25	57,175	42,970	-25	63,543	47,730	-25
Canada (10,000+)		42,957	41,411	-4	220,452	193,446	-12	263,409	234,857	-11
Canada (All Areas)		57,317	55,093	-4	226,179	199,873	-12	283,498	254,966	-10
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		204	245	20	636	168	-74	840	413	-51
Barrie		1,197	449	-62	4,356	732	-83	5,553	1,181	-79
Belleville - Quinte West		203	377	86	384	48	-88	587	425	-28
Brantford		1,202	348	-71	24	492	##	1,226	840	-31
Calgary		5,693	6,112	7	8,652	12,948	50	14,345	19,060	33
Chilliwack		278	155	-44	278	84	-70	446	239	-46
Drummondville		131	232	77	324	396	22	455	628	38
Edmonton		4,703	4,704	0	5,484	12,348	125	10,187	17,052	67
Fredericton		390	326	-16	972	2,232	130	1,362	2,558	88
Greater/Grand Sudbury		22	253	##	24	1,044	##	46	1,297	##
Guelph		45	77	71	1,632	2,220	36	1,677	2,297	37
Halifax		722	726	1	10,644	2,508	-76	11,366	3,234	-72
Hamilton		315	283	-10	3,456	396	-89	3,771	679	-82
Kamloops		59	0	-100	12	0	-100	71	0	-100
Kelowna		519	389	-25	3,864	672	-83	4,383	1,061	-76
Kingston		239	290	21	0	4,416	##	239	4,706	##
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		1,122	747	-33	648	2,676	313	1,770	3,423	93
Lethbridge		227	206	-9	24	36	50	251	242	-4
London		345	756	119	2,568	720	-72	2,913	1,476	-49
Moncton		263	193	-27	1,968	1,164	-41	2,231	1,357	-39
Montréal		1,057	1,224	16	9,068	10,092	11	10,125	11,316	12
Nanaimo		166	87	-48	36	108	200	202	195	-3
Oshawa		1,010	994	-2	720	804	12	1,730	1,798	4
Ottawa-Gatineau		2,655	1,271	-52	9,504	9,348	-2	12,159	10,619	-13
Gatineau		331	372	12	4,956	1,020	-79	5,287	1,392	-74
Ottawa		2,324	899	-61	4,548	8,328	83	6,872	9,227	34
Peterborough		35	63	80	0	0	-	35	63	80
Québec		352	493	40	6,480	4,008	-38	6,832	4,501	-34
Red Deer		39	37	-5	48	72	50	87	109	25
Regina		101	214	112	1,788	120	-93	1,889	334	-82
Saguenay		202	152	-25	168	2,952	##	370	3,104	##
St. Catharines-Niagara		428	415	-3	1,584	1,212	-23	2,012	1,627	-19
Saint John		247	161	-35	0	48	##	247	209	-15
St. John's		363	337	-7	60	156	160	423	493	17
Saskatoon		757	545	-28	3,996	3,696	-8	4,753	4,241	-11
Sherbrooke		193	198	3	852	2,676	214	1,045	2,874	175
Thunder Bay		97	51	-47	48	0	-100	145	51	-65
Toronto		4,253	4,330	2	81,612	56,736	-30	85,865	61,066	-29
Trois-Rivières		65	313	382	3,204	1,548	-52	3,269	1,861	-43
Vancouver		3,622	2,426	-33	42,660	33,012	-23	46,282	35,438	-23
Victoria		249	273	10	5,724	5,136	-10	5,973	5,409	-9
Windsor		236	241	2	300	276	-8	536	517	-4
Winnipeg		1,386	1,111	-20	5,136	7,452	45	6,522	8,563	31
Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

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