Record month-to-month increase in SAAR of housing starts reverses trend in June

OTTAWA, ON, July 18, 2023 /CNW/ - The declining trend in housing starts observed over the last several months reversed slightly due to a significant increase in actual housing starts in June. The trend was 234,974 units in June, up 2.4% from 229,520 units in May, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly SAAR of total housing starts for all areas in Canada.

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

The standalone monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada increased 41% in June (281,373 units) compared to May (200,018 units), which represents the largest month to month SAAR change in the last 10 years. This is mostly due to multi-unit starts which accounted for about 82% of total starts.

The monthly SAAR of total urban starts (centres 10,000 population and over) increased 46%, with 262,815 units recorded in June. Multi-unit urban starts increased 59% to 219,914 units, while single-detached urban starts increased 3% to 42,901 units.

The Vancouver and Toronto CMAs recorded significant increases in total SAAR housing starts in June, with Vancouver up 71%, and Toronto up 100%. Toronto and Vancouver's total housing starts combined accounted for 47% of total housing starts in Canada's urban centres for the month of June. Montreal CMA also recorded an increase in total SAAR housing starts, however, it was less pronounced at 8%. All three recorded increases in both single-detached and multi-unit starts.

The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 18,558 units.

Quote:

"We observed a large increase in the SAAR of housing starts in June which pushed the trend of housing starts upward after consecutive monthly declines since November 2022. Despite this, total year-to-date housing starts for the first half of the year were 8% lower than they were over the same period in 2022 as the high interest rate environment continues to challenge housing starts through increasing borrowing costs," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's Chief Economist.

Key Facts:

• Toronto and Vancouver have been doing considerably well this year compared to last. Actual 2023 year-to-date housing starts were 32% and 49% higher than the same period in 2022 in Toronto and Vancouver respectively.
• Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data are accessible in English and French on our website and the CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
• Housing starts data is available on the eleventh business day each month. We will release the July housing starts data on August 16 at 8:15 AM ET.
• CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.
• Definitions and methodology to better understand the foundations of the Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys.

As a trusted source of housing information, CMHC provides unbiased housing-related data, research, and market information to help close knowledge gaps, and deepen understanding of complex housing issues to inform future policy decisions. Housing starts facilitate the analysis of monthly, quarterly, and year-over-year activity in the new home market. The data we collect as part of our Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys helps us obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply and is used as part of our various housing reports.

For more information, visit our website at https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en, and follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram.

Related Links:

• Spring 2023 Housing Market Outlook
• Latest Housing Supply Report (HSR)
• Housing Supply Report (HSR) — Fall Edition
• The road ahead for the economy and housing — fall 2022 update
• Canada's housing supply shortage: skilled labour capacity
• Understanding Canada's housing supply shortages

Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		June 2022	June 2023	%	June 2022	June 2023	%	June 2022	June 2023	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		83	54	-35	5	5	-	88	59	-33
P.E.I.		16	13	-19	52	10	-81	68	23	-66
N.S.		167	201	20	282	923	227	449	1,124	150
N.B.		133	145	9	356	254	-29	489	399	-18
Atlantic		399	413	4	695	1,192	72	1,094	1,605	47
Qc		898	454	-49	4,301	2,443	-43	5,199	2,897	-44
Ont.		2,123	1,491	-30	6,139	8,623	40	8,262	10,114	22
Man.		245	153	-38	413	434	5	658	587	-11
Sask.		131	89	-32	430	483	12	561	572	2
Alta.		1,558	1,149	-26	1,787	1,219	-32	3,345	2,368	-29
Prairies		1,934	1,391	-28	2,630	2,136	-19	4,564	3,527	-23
B.C.		656	599	-9	3,837	4,776	24	4,493	5,375	20
Canada (10,000+)		6,010	4,348	-28	17,602	19,170	9	23,612	23,518	0
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		41	18	-56	127	53	-58	168	71	-58
Barrie		107	103	-4	197	363	84	304	466	53
Belleville - Quinte West		37	24	-35	8	32	300	45	56	24
Brantford		22	53	141	162	2	-99	184	55	-70
Calgary		551	518	-6	1,332	721	-46	1,883	1,239	-34
Chilliwack		17	20	18	12	14	17	29	34	17
Drummondville		36	14	-61	84	27	-68	120	41	-66
Edmonton		765	503	-34	342	457	34	1,107	960	-13
Fredericton		53	61	15	123	81	-34	176	142	-19
Greater/Grand Sudbury		10	2	-80	4	2	-50	14	4	-71
Guelph		39	5	-87	55	136	147	94	141	50
Halifax		119	98	-18	271	887	227	390	985	153
Hamilton		85	33	-61	307	288	-6	392	321	-18
Kamloops		6	5	-17	8	1	-88	14	6	-57
Kelowna		74	62	-16	657	322	-51	731	384	-47
Kingston		34	27	-21	26	0	-100	60	27	-55
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		165	109	-34	376	54	-86	541	163	-70
Lethbridge		32	26	-19	7	2	-71	39	28	-28
London		156	27	-83	80	214	168	236	241	2
Moncton		38	38	-	229	164	-28	267	202	-24
Montréal		280	134	-52	2,830	774	-73	3,110	908	-71
Nanaimo		23	16	-30	25	3	-88	48	19	-60
Oshawa		112	115	3	205	60	-71	317	175	-45
Ottawa-Gatineau		258	236	-9	639	792	24	897	1,028	15
Gatineau		27	14	-48	105	413	293	132	427	223
Ottawa		231	222	-4	534	379	-29	765	601	-21
Peterborough		39	3	-92	0	0	-	39	3	-92
Québec		97	37	-62	590	540	-8	687	577	-16
Red Deer		20	3	-85	8	4	-50	28	7	-75
Regina		42	10	-76	45	149	231	87	159	83
Saguenay		25	34	36	36	14	-61	61	48	-21
St. Catharines-Niagara		105	41	-61	40	132	230	145	173	19
Saint John		34	31	-9	2	0	-100	36	31	-14
St. John's		73	50	-32	4	5	25	77	55	-29
Saskatoon		81	75	-7	384	333	-13	465	408	-12
Sherbrooke		47	27	-43	67	71	6	114	98	-14
Thunder Bay		16	16	-	40	4	-90	56	20	-64
Toronto		466	370	-21	3,780	6,801	80	4,246	7,171	69
Trois-Rivières		45	10	-78	97	267	175	142	277	95
Vancouver		296	350	18	2,446	3,555	45	2,742	3,905	42
Victoria		46	25	-46	187	477	155	233	502	115
Windsor		73	31	-58	66	25	-62	139	56	-60
Winnipeg		215	139	-35	319	428	34	534	567	6
Total		4,780	3,499	-27	16,217	18,254	13	20,997	21,753	4
Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		May 2023	June 2023	%	May 2023	June 2023	%	May 2023	June 2023	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		316	418	32	23	50	117	339	468	38
P.E.I.		38	142	274	108	120	11	146	262	79
N.S.		1,680	2,227	33	3,127	11,138	256	4,807	13,365	178
N.B.		828	1,023	24	2,909	2,982	3	3,737	4,005	7
Qc		3,519	3,498	-1	17,790	21,551	21	21,309	25,049	18
Ont.		15,094	15,452	2	51,468	101,342	97	66,562	116,794	75
Man.		1,673	1,554	-7	5,136	5,208	1	6,809	6,762	-1
Sask.		830	942	13	1,308	5,796	343	2,138	6,738	215
Alta.		11,524	11,243	-2	24,279	14,486	-40	35,803	25,729	-28
B.C.		6,246	6,402	2	32,467	57,241	76	38,713	63,643	64
Canada (10,000+)		41,748	42,901	3	138,615	219,914	59	180,363	262,815	46
Canada (All Areas)		54,740	55,552	1	145,276	225,817	55	200,018	281,373	41
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		266	203	-24	1,884	636	-66	2,150	839	-61
Barrie		1,041	1,236	19	432	4,356	##	1,473	5,592	280
Belleville - Quinte West		158	195	23	48	384	##	206	579	181
Brantford		631	1,281	103	756	24	-97	1,387	1,305	-6
Calgary		5,660	5,654	0	18,768	8,652	-54	24,428	14,306	-41
Chilliwack		224	282	26	224	168	-25	932	450	-52
Drummondville		114	119	4	540	324	-40	654	443	-32
Edmonton		4,682	4,710	1	5,220	5,484	5	9,902	10,194	3
Fredericton		110	399	263	264	972	268	374	1,371	267
Greater/Grand Sudbury		90	20	-78	120	24	-80	210	44	-79
Guelph		65	41	-37	60	1,632	##	125	1,673	##
Halifax		343	675	97	1,728	10,644	##	2,071	11,319	447
Hamilton		261	310	19	756	3,456	357	1,017	3,766	270
Kamloops		59	57	-3	36	12	-67	95	69	-27
Kelowna		403	534	33	1,440	3,864	168	1,843	4,398	139
Kingston		266	240	-10	108	0	-100	374	240	-36
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		800	1,173	47	1,704	648	-62	2,504	1,821	-27
Lethbridge		12	222	##	0	24	##	12	246	##
London		431	336	-22	2,388	2,568	8	2,819	2,904	3
Moncton		209	263	26	1,824	1,968	8	2,033	2,231	10
Montréal		857	1,088	27	8,511	9,053	6	9,368	10,141	8
Nanaimo		190	169	-11	552	36	-93	742	205	-72
Oshawa		377	1,076	185	1,512	720	-52	1,889	1,796	-5
Ottawa-Gatineau		1,604	2,581	61	3,216	9,504	196	4,820	12,085	151
Gatineau		291	304	4	900	4,956	451	1,191	5,260	342
Ottawa		1,313	2,277	73	2,316	4,548	96	3,629	6,825	88
Peterborough		51	33	-35	120	0	-100	171	33	-81
Québec		437	347	-21	2,916	6,480	122	3,353	6,827	104
Red Deer		125	40	-68	216	48	-78	341	88	-74
Regina		170	90	-47	288	1,788	##	458	1,878	310
Saguenay		109	206	89	288	168	-42	397	374	-6
St. Catharines-Niagara		1,517	516	-66	984	1,584	61	2,501	2,100	-16
Saint John		209	253	21	960	0	-100	1,169	253	-78
St. John's		303	365	20	72	60	-17	375	425	13
Saskatoon		558	758	36	1,008	3,996	296	1,566	4,754	204
Sherbrooke		188	187	-1	864	852	-1	1,052	1,039	-1
Thunder Bay		81	102	26	0	48	##	81	150	85
Toronto		4,132	4,162	1	38,724	81,612	111	42,856	85,774	100
Trois-Rivières		149	70	-53	612	3,204	424	761	3,274	330
Vancouver		3,428	3,638	6	23,724	42,660	80	27,152	46,298	71
Victoria		637	227	-64	996	5,724	475	1,633	5,951	264
Windsor		260	230	-12	528	300	-43	788	530	-33
Winnipeg		1,556	1,402	-10	5,076	5,136	1	6,632	6,538	-1
Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

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