Canada forecasts 2026 to be among the hottest years on record

OTTAWA, ON, Jan. 19, 2026 /CNW/ - The Government of Canada has released its annual global mean temperature forecast, providing early insight into expected global temperature conditions for 2026. Following record-breaking global heat in 2023 and 2024 and a comparably warm 2025, global temperatures are expected to remain at historically high levels.

Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest global mean temperature forecast indicates that 2026 will likely be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching 2024, which remains the warmest year ever observed. Based on current modelling, the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to fall in the range of 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels, meaning that global temperatures will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year. Looking ahead, Canada's long-term forecasts indicate that the period from 2026 to 2030 will likely be the hottest five-year period on record.

Produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, the forecast is based on a made-in-Canada climate prediction system that provides early insight into expected global temperature conditions. This means that governments, industry, and communities can use this data with confidence while planning for the impacts of a warming climate.

To address the drivers of rising global temperatures, the Government of Canada is taking action to reduce emissions. This includes measures outlined in Budget 2025 and the Climate Competitiveness Strategy--such as the enhanced oil and gas methane and landfill methane regulations announced last month--strengthening our industrial carbon markets and cementing Canada as a clean energy superpower. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions protects human health and reduces climate impacts while supporting economic growth. These efforts help strengthen communities, protect the environment, and support Canada's transition to a cleaner and more competitive economy.

As global warming continues to affect people, communities, and infrastructure across Canada and around the world, access to reliable climate data supports informed planning and decision-making that helps protect Canadians and the places they call home. Taking action to prepare for and prevent the impacts of climate change is not just a moral obligation, it is an economic imperative. Building climate resilience is economically smart, fiscally responsible, and essential to protecting Canadians for generations to come.

Quotes

"Canadians are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, from extreme heat to increased risks to communities and infrastructure. This latest global temperature forecast provides important, science-based information to help governments, decision-makers, and communities better understand what lies ahead and plan accordingly. By investing in trusted climate science, we are supporting informed decisions that strengthen resilience and preparedness across the country."

– The Honourable Julie Dabrusin, Minister of the Environment, Climate Change and Nature

Quick facts

• The 2026 global mean temperature forecast predicts a range of 1.35 °C to 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels (from 1850 to 1900), with a central estimate of 1.44 °C.
• The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that 2025 was among the three hottest years on record at 1.44 °C ± 0.13 °C, comparable to 2023 and slightly below 2024, the hottest year on record. This observed value closely aligns with Environment and Climate Change Canada's prediction for 2025 (to within 0.01 °C).
• This will be the 13th consecutive year that global temperatures exceed 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels.
• Environment and Climate Change Canada predicts a 12% chance that 2026 will exceed the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement threshold. Exceeding this threshold in a single year does not constitute failure to meet the Paris Agreement's goal, which is defined by long-term average temperature over multiple decades.
• There is a greater than 99% chance that 2026 will be hotter than every year on record prior to 2023.
• 2024 was the hottest year on record and the first to globally exceed the 1.5 °C threshold established by the Paris Agreement.

Associated links

• Climate Data
• Canadian Centre for Climate Services
• Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
• Canada's National Adaptation Strategy
• Government of Canada Adaptation Action Plan – Fact Sheet
• Map – Canada in a Changing Climate

Environment and Climate Change Canada's X page

Environment and Climate Change Canada's Facebook page

Environment and Natural Resources in Canada's Facebook page

Environment and Climate Change Canada's LinkedIn page

Environment and Climate Change Canada's Instagram page

SOURCE Environment and Climate Change Canada

Contacts: Media Relations, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 819-938-3338 or 1-844-836-7799 (toll-free), [email protected]