LONDON, NEW YORK, TORONTO, July 6 /CNW/ - Corporates expect economic growth to resume over the next two years, but major fundraising plans are on hold as caution still reigns over corporate strategy, according to a survey of 440 senior financial and non-financial executives conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit and commissioned by RBC Capital Markets, the corporate and investment banking arm of Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE).
Demand for funding is low today, with just 38 per cent of corporate respondents(1) expecting to raise fresh capital in the next two years, although there is a gradual return to M&A activity, private equity deals, project finance activity and IPOs. Private equity (37%) and syndicated loans (35%) are expected to be among the most popular choices for raising debt or equity, followed by investment-grade debt (25%), secondary equity offering (14%), securitisation (14%) and IPOs (11%). Smaller corporates (USD 75m - USD 250m in annual revenues) are most likely to be raising "significant" amounts of capital (20% vs. 8% for larger firms).
- Transaction activity outlook: Respondents see M&A activity as the
area where an increase in transaction volumes is most likely (49%),
compared to 12 months ago, followed by an increase in IPOs (31%).
Financial institutions are more optimistic than their corporate
counterparts about transaction volumes in their country over the
coming year. For example, 49 per cent of financial institutions
expect that IPO levels will be higher, compared to 38 per cent of
corporate respondents. Financial institutions executives also expect
higher levels of activity than their corporate counterparts for
secondary equity offerings (53% vs. 27%); M&A (61% vs. 52%) and
investment-grade debt (46% vs. 31%).
- Threats to fundraising: Economic uncertainty in key markets is seen
as the greatest risk to fundraising activity (39%), followed by
political uncertainty (13%), currency volatility (12%), difficulty in
obtaining financing (12%) and risk of default by key customers (11%).
Only five per cent of corporates see new regulatory challenges as a
risk to their funding plans, despite the impact that higher capital
and liquidity requirements on financial institutions will have on
reducing bank lending, thereby leaving corporates with limited
options for raising capital.
- Cash is king? Caution over fundraising plans has led many corporates
to increase their cash reserves, which may be used to fund
transaction volumes or simply return money to shareholders. While
investors once frowned on companies hoarding cash, many now recognise
the benefits of significant cash reserves. In evaluating investments,
the criteria that financial executives most often say they value more
than they did two years ago are a company's financial strength (59%),
its ability to maintain adequate levels of cash or other sources of
liquidity (49%) and its ability to mitigate the risks of extreme
market conditions (49%).
- Changes to strategy: Despite a scaling back of funding plans over the
past nine months, corporates have adjusted their business strategy to
allow them to improve their chances of accessing capital. In
particular, executives from financial institutions place
restructuring of business operations at the top of initiatives aimed
at improving access to capital, followed by strengthening of
corporate governance and a greater focus on investor relations.
Corporates have instead seen a greater focus on core customers and
- Focus on emerging markets: Nearly two-thirds of executives say that
there will be a 'greater' or 'much greater' focus on business in
overseas emerging markets, compared to domestic markets and overseas
developed markets. European corporates are more likely to tap into
overseas emerging and developed markets, compared to North American
corporates who are more likely to focus on their domestic market.
- Cross-Atlantic Differences: While financial institutions in both
Europe and North America are similarly upbeat about the level of M&A
and IPO transactions, corporates in North America are significantly
more optimistic (37% vs 28% in Europe). Similarly, 40 per cent of
corporates in North America expect higher levels of IPO activity,
versus 31 per cent of corporates in Europe. While the number of
corporates expecting higher levels of secondary equity offering is
relatively low in both markets, corporates in North America are more
optimistic than their European counterparts (27.7% vs. 18.5%).
Although global demand for funding is low, corporates in North
America are more likely to go to the market to raise fresh capital
than their European counterparts (41% vs. 31%). European corporates
are more likely to use investment-grade debt (28%), syndicated loans
(24%), private equity (20%), securitisation (16%) and secondary
equity offering (16%). By contrast, North American corporates expect
their funding to come from private equity (45%), followed by
investment-grade debt (30%), IPO (11%), secondary equity offering
(11%) and securitisation (11%).
Commenting on the findings, Doug Guzman, Head of Global Investment Banking, RBC Capital Markets said: "As economic growth in the major economies resumes, we expect a more positive environment for deal making and fundraising activities. Corporates and financial institutions entering the market will undoubtedly face greater competition for limited capital. They will increasingly need to market themselves in a way that makes them attractive to bondholders and shareholders alike, while at the same time competing for capital with sovereigns which may offer wider spreads. In this environment, the ability of corporates to part-fund their own transactions through cash reserves will be extremely attractive to banks, who are increasingly looking to reduce their exposure to risk."
Stephen Walker, Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking, RBC Capital Markets, said: "Macro-economic uncertainty has played a key role in falling corporate loan demand over the past two years. While a normal cyclical phenomenon, the drop in demand this time has been far sharper than in previous cycles and comes at a time when banks have been looking to bolster their revenues through increased lending. Despite the loan demand/supply imbalance that results from this, loan spreads have continued to be relatively wider across most market segments, with differentiation in pricing for similarly rated credits becoming more idiosyncratic and more dependent on industry, geography, and loan size.
"Against the backdrop of government deficits and regulatory change in the financial world, there is no doubt that the next several years will be a vitally important time for the structure and substance of credit markets. The range of funding options is likely to become narrower and more expensive as banks face higher capital and liquidity requirements. Importantly, this will come at a time when corporations are faced with increased competition for capital from banks and sovereigns."
Video - Marc Harris, Co-Head of Global Research, RBC Capital Markets - Highlights from the survey and white paper "The New Normal": Implications of Sovereign Debt and the Competition for Capital
About the survey
RBC Capital Markets commissioned the Economist Intelligence Unit to survey 440 senior executives from around the globe (North America (34%), Europe (41%), Asia Pacific (16%) and Rest of the World (9%), including both clients and non-clients of the firm, on their outlook for the future of capital markets. The survey was conducted between April 28 and May 25, 2010. The respondents included 229 senior executives from commercial and investment banks, hedge funds and private equity firms and 211 executives from non-financial companies active in the capital markets.
About RBC Capital Markets
RBC Capital Markets is the corporate and investment banking arm of RBC and is consistently ranked among the top 20 global investment banks. With over 4,000 employees, RBC Capital Markets is active globally in fixed income, foreign exchange, infrastructure finance, ECM, metals, mining and energy. Working with clients through operations in Asia and Australasia the UK and Europe and in every major North American city, RBC Capital Markets provides capital markets products and services from 75 offices in 15 countries. RBC Capital Markets international fixed income and treasury businesses are managed from London, which is the centre of a 24-hour trading platform, with major hubs in Sydney, New York and Toronto. For more information, please visit www.rbccm.com
Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) and its subsidiaries operate under the master brand name RBC. We are Canada's largest bank as measured by assets and market capitalization, one of North America's leading diversified financial services companies and among the largest banks in the world, based on market capitalization. We are one of North America's leading diversified financial service companies, provide personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, corporate and investment banking and transaction processing services on a global basis. We employ approximately 77,000 full- and part-time employees who serve more than 18 million personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 53 other countries. For more information, please visit www.rbc.com.
(1) Corporates participating in this survey have average annual revenues
of USD 4.5bn.
For further information: For further information: Media Enquiries: Europe and Asia: Beverley Weber, +44 (0)20 7029 7685, Beverley.Weber@rbc.com; North America: Kevin Foster, +1 (212) 428-6902, Kevin.Foster@rbccm.com