Environment and Climate Change Canada presents the winter seasonal outlook Français

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Environment and Climate Change Canada

Dec 04, 2024, 13:00 ET

GATINEAU, QC, Dec. 4, 2024 /CNW/ - Today, Environment and Climate Change Canada presented its seasonal outlook for winter 2024–2025. Experts predict close to or above normal temperatures across the north and east. In the west, a warm start to the season is expected to be followed by normal to below normal temperatures.

This year we are shifting into a La Niña winter, which often brings distinct weather conditions to Canada. La Niña happens when stronger-than-normal trade winds push warm surface water westward in the Pacific, allowing cooler, deeper water to rise near the South American coast. This results in cooler-than-average sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

The cooling effect of La Niña in Canada can cause:

Below-seasonal temperatures
A more active storm track over the Great Lakes and Atlantic provinces, leading to increased snowfall
Drier atmosphere in the southern parts of Canada, due to reduced moisture flow

As winters trend warmer due to climate change, this year's La Niña is expected to be weaker and less pronounced. However, the cooling effect of La Niña will still be felt in western and northwestern Canada where it is reinforced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a long-term fluctuation in Pacific Ocean temperatures that strengthens La Niña's cooling impact.

Canada is warming at roughly double the global rate, and even more in the north, which leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Starting this winter, Environment and Climate Change Canada will be able to use its Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system to analyze the connection between human-caused climate change and the odds of extreme cold temperature events. Work is also underway to develop the system to analyze extreme precipitation. This capability is expected to come online in 2025.

As the Government continues to tackle the climate crisis, it is critical that we understand and reduce the risks and adapt to those changes. This is why the Government of Canada has developed a robust National Adaptation Strategy, a whole-of-society vision to reduce the risk of climate-related disasters, improve health outcomes, protect nature and biodiversity, build and maintain resilient infrastructure, and support a strong economy and its workers.

Quick facts

The United Nation's World Meteorological Organization confirmed in a provisional report that 2024 is set to be the warmest on record, with global temperatures rising 1.54 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Las Niñas appear approximately every three to five years and typically last one to two years. Historically, Canada is mostly affected by El Niño during winter and spring.
Environment and Climate Change Canada is Canada's authoritative source for weather information and severe weather warnings and is committed to providing Canadians with accurate and timely weather information, including severe weather alerts.
Environment and Climate Change Canada's mobile weather application, WeatherCAN, draws its weather data and information directly from our meteorologist-verified data, ensuring Canadians receive the most up-to-date alerts and forecasts.
The latest forecasts and severe weather warnings are available through Canada.ca/weather, the WeatherCAN application (available for Android and iOS devices), Weatheradio, and Hello Weather (1-833-794-3556).