Canadian Housing Starts Trend Decreases in July

Logo: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

OTTAWA, Aug. 9, 2018 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 219,988 units in July 2018, compared to 221,738 units in June 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts decreased in July, reflecting a decline in the SAAR of multi-unit dwellings in urban centres from the near-historical high registered in June," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Despite decreasing in July, the trend remains well-above historical averages, reflecting elevated levels of multi-unit starts in most major markets that has more-than-offset declining single starts."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Housing starts trended lower in July 2018 as fewer projects in both the single-detached and multi-family segments got underway. The densifying cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, and North Vancouver were focal points for new multi-family construction during the month. Despite the generally weak response of housing supply to changes in prices in Vancouver, particularly large increases in home prices and strong demand from a growing population in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) have resulted in an elevated level of new home construction so far in 2018, equaling levels recorded in the first seven months of 2017.

Victoria
The trend for housing starts moved higher in July 2018, continuing strong construction activity in the first half of the year for the Victoria CMA. While the number of multi-family projects getting underway declined relative to the same month last year, single-detached starts expanded, particularly in the West Shore municipalities of Langford and Colwood. With strong demand for all types of housing in the region, builders have responded by starting 14% more units in 2018 compared with the same period last year.

Lethbridge
The housing starts trend in Lethbridge CMA declined slightly in July compared to the previous month. Actual housing starts were down 19% in July compared to the corresponding period in 2017, with both single-detached and multi-family homes contributing to the decline. Elevated inventories and an easing of demand continue to assert downward pressure on housing starts in the Lethbridge area.

Saskatoon
Total housing starts trended lower in July as fewer multi-family projects got underway in the month. Homebuilding activity during the first seven months of 2018 has been characterized by a mixed performance, with single-detached starts down by 31% and multi-family starts up by just under 1%, compared with the previous year. So far in 2018, modest economic growth has kept residential construction below the levels seen during the same period of 2017.

Toronto
The total housing starts trend in the Toronto CMA was virtually unchanged in July. The decline in the single-detached starts trend was matched by rising apartment starts. High house prices continued to shift buyers from purchasing low-rise units towards relatively more affordable condominium apartments. Consequently, condominium apartment starts were the highest for the month since 2005. The majority of condominium apartment starts took place in the City of Toronto (60%), with the remainder taking place in Mississauga (19%), Vaughan (11%), and Oakville (10%).

Oshawa
Total housing starts trended lower in the Oshawa CMA, as both single-detached and apartment unit construction declined. In fact, July saw the lowest number of single-detached starts for the month since 1992. While demographic and economic conditions remain favourable, the number of units under construction is the highest it has been in over 25 years, which slowed the pace of new projects.

Peterborough
The overall trend for total housing starts in the Peterborough CMA remained relatively unchanged into July, remaining close to the high levels witnessed over the last 19 months. This strength comes off the heels of a strong year for housing starts in 2017 and robust single-detached starts in the first seven months of 2018. Demand has been driven by the relative affordability of single-detached homes compared to other Ontario CMAs.

Québec CMA
In the Quebec region, year-to-date housing starts decreased by 10% compared to the same period in 2017. This decrease was due to the condominium and freehold (single-detached, semi-detached and row) housing segment. However, the rental housing segment continued to stand out. In fact, conventional rental or seniors' housing units saw an increase of 48% over the same period last year.

New Brunswick
The first seven months of 2018 has seen total housing starts increase by 8% compared to the same period last year. Construction of multi-family projects continues to drive this growth, with an increase of 13% compared to 3% in single-family housing starts. The increase in multi-family construction projects are a response to a 7-year low in New Brunswick's apartment vacancy rates.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 206,314 units in July, down from 246,200 units in June. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 16.2% in July to 190,093 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 20.3% to 136,231 units in July while single-detached urban starts decreased by 3.6% to 53,862 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,221 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
				Single-Detached			All Others			Total
				July 2017	July 2018	%	July 2017	July 2018	%	July 2017	July 2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.				97	68	-30	64	28	-56	161	96	-40
P.E.I.				31	31	-	47	5	-89	78	36	-54
N.S.				145	125	-14	224	358	60	369	483	31
N.B.				119	113	-5	78	111	42	197	224	14
Atlantic				392	337	-14	413	502	22	805	839	4
Qc				694	597	-14	2,709	2,199	-19	3,403	2,796	-18
Ont.				2,644	2,048	-23	4,510	3,901	-14	7,154	5,949	-17
Man.				266	223	-16	134	500	273	400	723	81
Sask.				219	156	-29	206	75	-64	425	231	-46
Alta.				1,291	1,092	-15	1,567	1,451	-7	2,858	2,543	-11
Prairies				1,776	1,471	-17	1,907	2,026	6	3,683	3,497	-5
B.C.				1,000	888	-11	2,929	2,772	-5	3,929	3,660	-7
Canada (10,000+)			6,506		5,341	-18	12,468	11,400	-9	18,974	16,741	-12
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			24		42	75	157	111	-29	181	153	-15
Barrie				101	169	67	1	0	-100	102	169	66
Belleville				39	47	21	36	9	-75	75	56	-25
Brantford				31	37	19	63	21	-67	94	58	-38
Calgary				430	301	-30	716	709	-1	1,146	1,010	-12
Edmonton				498	563	13	716	518	-28	1,214	1,081	-11
Greater Sudbury			28		22	-21	2	8	300	30	30	-
Guelph				18	10	-44	8	81	##	26	91	250
Halifax				83	74	-11	194	330	70	277	404	46
Hamilton				52	76	46	204	226	11	256	302	18
Kelowna				87	46	-47	41	112	173	128	158	23
Kingston				42	37	-12	18	26	44	60	63	5
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			69		49	-29	299	62	-79	368	111	-70
Lethbridge				45	43	-4	18	8	-56	63	51	-19
London				197	156	-21	38	92	142	235	248	6
Moncton				37	44	19	17	20	18	54	64	19
Montréal				275	253	-8	1,553	1,287	-17	1,828	1,540	-16
Oshawa				100	51	-49	9	68	##	109	119	9
Ottawa-Gatineau			276		339	23	1,015	514	-49	1,291	853	-34
	Gatineau			62	38	-39	427	247	-42	489	285	-42
	Ottawa			214	301	41	588	267	-55	802	568	-29
Peterborough				32	64	100	15	0	-100	47	64	36
Québec				118	70	-41	364	266	-27	482	336	-30
Regina				84	29	-65	105	38	-64	189	67	-65
Saguenay				16	32	100	10	16	60	26	48	85
St. Catharines-Niagara			155		53	-66	94	12	-87	249	65	-74
Saint John				26	19	-27	1	52	##	27	71	163
St. John's				79	46	-42	60	24	-60	139	70	-50
Saskatoon				111	111	-	89	27	-70	200	138	-31
Sherbrooke				12	19	58	36	36	-	48	55	15
Thunder Bay				16	28	75	2	0	-100	18	28	56
Toronto				928	491	-47	2,864	2,872	0	3,792	3,363	-11
Trois-Rivières			27		13	-52	34	44	29	61	57	-7
Vancouver				492	411	-16	1,906	1,746	-8	2,398	2,157	-10
Victoria				84	97	15	611	320	-48	695	417	-40
Windsor				81	59	-27	41	24	-41	122	83	-32
Winnipeg				207	173	-16	83	474	471	290	647	123
Total				4,900	4,074	-17	11,420	10,153	-11	16,320	14,227	-13
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
			Single-Detached					All Others						Total
			June 2018	July 2018		%		June 2018		July 2018		%		June 2018		July 2018		%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.			643	600		-7		119		286		140		762		886		16
P.E.I.			266	244		-8		504		60		-88		770		304		-61
N.S.			1,501	1,116		-26		3,904		4,233		8		5,405		5,349		-1
N.B.			809	787		-3		1,879		1,222		-35		2,688		2,009		-25
Qc			6,616	6,081		-8		42,358		27,771		-34		48,974		33,852		-31
Ont.			21,394	20,577		-4		79,370		45,165		-43		100,764		65,742		-35
Man.			2,308	2,229		-3		3,384		6,000		77		5,692		8,229		45
Sask.			1,280	1,458		14		1,224		900		-26		2,504		2,358		-6
Alta.			11,288	11,397		1		13,548		17,409		28		24,836		28,806		16
B.C.			9,765	9,373		-4		24,553		33,185		35		34,318		42,558		24
Canada (10,000+)			55,870	53,862		-4		170,843		136,231		-20		226,713		190,093		-16
Canada (All Areas)			68,734	66,382		-3		177,463		139,931		-21		246,200		206,314		-16
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			357	424		19		192		1,332		##		549		1,756		220
Barrie			242	1,062		339		3,048		0		-100		3,290		1,062		-68
Belleville			458	409		-11		72		108		50		530		517		-2
Brantford			764	502		-34		48		252		425		812		754		-7
Calgary			3,827	3,380		-12		8,484		8,508		0		12,311		11,888		-3
Edmonton			5,241	5,933		13		4,644		6,216		34		9,885		12,149		23
Greater Sudbury			167	124		-26		132		96		-27		299		220		-26
Guelph			181	95		-48		936		972		4		1,117		1,067		-4
Halifax			909	667		-27		3,372		3,960		17		4,281		4,627		8
Hamilton			465	671		44		5,976		2,712		-55		6,441		3,383		-47
Kelowna			1,107	585		-47		2,520		1,344		-47		3,627		1,929		-47
Kingston			347	318		-8		2,160		312		-86		2,507		630		-75
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			824	595		-28		2,436		744		-69		3,260		1,339		-59
Lethbridge			393	451		15		156		96		-38		549		547		0
London			1,027	1,596		55		5,760		1,104		-81		6,787		2,700		-60
Moncton			236	277		17		696		240		-66		932		517		-45
Montréal			2,800	2,592		-7		29,553		15,475		-48		32,353		18,067		-44
Oshawa			1,448	474		-67		1,548		816		-47		2,996		1,290		-57
Ottawa-Gatineau			2,966	3,365		13		9,744		6,168		-37		12,710		9,533		-25
	Gatineau		279	340		22		2,448		2,964		21		2,727		3,304		21
	Ottawa		2,687	3,025		13		7,296		3,204		-56		9,983		6,229		-38
Peterborough			364	482		32		60		0		-100		424		482		14
Québec			790	819		4		9,744		3,192		-67		10,534		4,011		-62
Regina			320	302		-6		492		456		-7		812		758		-7
Saguenay			251	263		5		264		192		-27		515		455		-12
St. Catharines-Niagara			614	434		-29		1,044		144		-86		1,658		578		-65
Saint John			204	150		-26		0		624		##		204		774		279
St. John's			528	439		-17		84		288		243		612		727		19
Saskatoon			816	952		17		516		324		-37		1,332		1,276		-4
Sherbrooke			263	262		0		1,368		432		-68		1,631		694		-57
Thunder Bay			118	163		38		96		0		-100		214		163		-24
Toronto			6,231	5,444		-13		49,392		34,464		-30		55,623		39,908		-28
Trois-Rivières			159	163		3		504		528		5		663		691		4
Vancouver			4,462	4,282		-4		12,540		20,952		67		17,002		25,234		48
Victoria			958	1,039		8		5,016		3,840		-23		5,974		4,879		-18
Windsor			537	560		4		276		288		4		813		848		4
Winnipeg			1,767	1,769		0		2,868		5,688		98		4,635		7,457		61
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Audrey-Anne Coulombe, Media Relations, CMHC, 613-748-2573, [email protected]