Canadian economy to see modest growth in the second quarter

TORONTO, July 16, 2024 /CNW/ - The Canadian economy continued growing modestly in Q2 2024, finds the latest Main Street Quarterly report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).

Key highlights of the Main Street Quarterly report for Q2 2024

• CFIB's forecasts in partnership with AppEco suggest the Canadian economy grew by 2.0% in Q2 on the heels of a 1.7% growth in Q1. The third quarter should continue growing at about the same pace as long as inflation remains under control and the central bank continues cutting rates.
• The forecast for the total Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation shows it receded to 2.8% in Q2 and is expected to further decline to 2.4% in Q3.
• The national private sector job vacancy rate decreased to 3.3% in Q2. This represents 458,000 unfilled positions.
• The quarterly sectoral profile focuses on firms in the personal services sector. The analysis shows that historically high shares of repair and maintenance businesses as well as businesses providing personal care services are affected by borrowing costs and product input costs.
• This edition also includes a special analysis of the sky-high cost of doing business. The overall business costs, measured by unit cost, are currently at a very high level. Total unit costs were stable before the pandemic but spiked by 26% during 2022 and remained elevated since.

Conclusions by CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research Simon Gaudreault:

• The decent growth in the economy in the first half of 2024 correlates with a recent uptick in long-term business optimism. While encouraging, it doesn't mean that all is well for small businesses. They're still grappling with steep cost increases on all fronts, including wage pressures, significant energy and fuel costs, and high interest rates.
• General uncertainty and various cost pressures are affecting small businesses' ability to invest. After a surprise surge in Q1, private investment completely reversed course and declined to 2.8% in Q2.

Read the full Main Street Quarterly.

About AppEco
AppEco is a consulting firm specializing in economic and strategic analysis. It possesses in-depth technical expertise and delivers first-class services in applied economics: economic impact studies, surveys and polls, cost-benefit analyses, modelling, econometrics, pricing, etc. Its mission is to provide useful services that contribute to economic growth and the success of clients' projects. AppEco works with firms of all sizes, from small to multinationals, as well as governments and non-profit organizations. Learn more at appeco.ca/en.

About CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada's largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 97,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners' chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.

SOURCE Canadian Federation of Independent Business

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