Alberta's Growth Expected To Outpace Other Provinces, Despite Negative Effects of Trade War

ATB Financial Quarterly Economic Outlook

EDMONTON, AB, Sept. 10, 2025 /CNW/ - Alberta's economy is feeling the negative effects of the trade war, but still expected to grow faster than other provinces according to ATB Financial's latest economic outlook. The report, "Hanging by a tariff thread: Alberta's economy in 2026" forecasts real GDP to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2025 and 2.1 per cent in 2026, in line with the June forecast.

There have been both positive and negative developments since the June outlook. The good news is that U.S. tariffs have remained more limited in scope than feared in the spring, thanks to exemptions on Canada United States Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) compliant goods. Alberta's economy is also less exposed to sector-specific tariffs, like steel, aluminum and autos.

On the other hand, the labour market has weakened since the start of the year. An elevated unemployment rate is expected to persist as job creation struggles to keep pace with the growing population. Further, the Chinese have imposed new tariffs on Canola, and oil prices have fallen on both demand worries and increased OPEC supply resulting in a downward revision to our outlook for oil and gas capital spending.

"Alberta's economy is not immune to the effects of the trade war, but is expected to weather the storm better than other provinces. Looking beyond the current trade challenges, emerging industries like technology and tourism will support Alberta's growth", said Mark Parsons, ATB Financial's Chief Economist.

While momentum has slowed, ATB Economics expects the Alberta economy to grow faster than the national economy in both 2025 and 2026. The province's population growth (although down from recent peaks) continues to fuel demand. This influx of new Albertans is also driving residential construction, with housing starts on pace to set a new annual record and remain relatively strong next year. Moreover, improved market access for the energy sector, through initiatives like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export facilities, will boost the value of exports reaching global markets.

"Many Albertans are feeling the weight of the economic slowdown," added Parsons. "We're seeing a disconnect where the economy is growing, but the job market can't keep up with the number of job seekers. The potential for major projects in energy and infrastructure to create new jobs is a major upside, but we're waiting for shovels to actually hit the ground."

Overall, the ATB Economic Outlook paints a picture of an Alberta economy that is resilient in the face of trade uncertainty but the pain nonetheless is being felt, particularly in terms of an elevated unemployment rate.

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General Disclosure
ATB Financial's Economic Outlook is intended for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered specific legal, financial, tax or other professional advice or recommendations. Information presented is believed to be reliable and up-to-date but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The actual outcome may be materially different. ATB Financial and any of its affiliates are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by ATB Financial or any of its affiliates and related entities.

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SOURCE ATB Financial