A 6% rent increase could thrust more than 30,000 people into financial insecurity, according to Centraide of Greater Montreal

MONTREAL, July 7, 2026 /CNW/ - A forecasting analytics study conducted by RUNWITHIT Synthetics for Centraide of Greater Montreal shows that a 6% rent increase could push more than 30,000 people into precarity--that's almost 1.5 times the capacity of a sold-out Bell Centre. Of this number, more than 16,000 people would be put in a situation of extreme hardship, where the slightest unexpected expense could have severe consequences, including food insecurity, debt, housing loss and even homelessness.

These results draw in part on AI-powered models designed to simulate rental market dynamics in Greater Montreal and forecast the effects of rent increases. Using a digital replica of an area covering 66 municipalities, the study makes it possible to estimate the potential impacts of rising housing costs and highlight their real-world effects on households.

The hypothetical 6% increase is based on recent market trends. This scenario makes it possible to assess the impacts of a significant--yet plausible--increase, particularly for those whose financial flexibility is already stretched to the limit. For comparison, the increase recommended by the Tribunal administratif du logement was approximately 4% in 2024, 5.9% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Over three years, this represents a cumulative hike of roughly 13.6%.

This rent burden study builds on the Together for Housing initiative launched in 2023 by Centraide of Greater Montreal. It responds to one of the solutions identified by the initiative, namely improving and sharing data to support more effective access to adequate housing for low-income households.

"Three years after Together for Housing was introduced, the situation is more urgent than ever. The demand for organizations' services has surged (as shown by the Financial Anxiety Index data) and the impacts of housing costs are increasingly visible, with families being displaced, individuals pushed to the brink financially and workers unable to find a decent place to live," said Tasha Lackman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Centraide of Greater Montreal.

"This data confirms that investing in social and community housing is vital to ensure people have access to options that are affordable and suited to their needs. It also prompts us to explore new avenues with partners across our ecosystem to improve housing conditions and preserve the existing rental housing stock. New initiatives such as rent subsidies and rent banks are already taking shape, offering concrete solutions to address this crisis."

"RUNWITHIT Synthetics' INFLECTOR AI platform generated a never-identified, detailed and accurate synthetic population of Montreal, including income, expenses, households, and real residences, and then increased rent by 6%," said Dean Bittner, CTO and Co-Founder of RUNWITHIT Synthetics.

"What emerges are the households, the people, their locations and circumstances, so that we can measure the return on investment and return on impact of the steps we can take--for whom and where--to stem a slide toward precarity and poverty, and prevent those social and financial repercussions. We achieved this without compromising any personal privacy or using any surveillance data."

Ten boroughs under pressure

According to RUNWITHIT Synthetics projections, a 6% increase in rents would drive 10,000 residents across 10 Montreal boroughs into extreme precarity. These boroughs are Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, LaSalle, Le Plateau-Mont-Royal, Le Sud-Ouest, Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Montréal-Nord, Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, Ville-Marie and Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension.

The most severe impacts are in Ville-Marie and Le Plateau-Mont-Royal, where the rate of extreme precarity reaches 43% and 34% respectively, making both areas particularly vulnerable to rent increases.

Precarity index: A more comprehensive metric to support more effective action

Traditional financial vulnerability indicators generally focus on income, without factoring in the burden of household expenses. A precarity index has been developed to address this shortcoming, taking into account both income and essential expenses (housing, food, electricity). The index has four levels: stability, low precarity, high precarity and extreme precarity.

Extreme precarity is characterized by persistent instability. People experiencing extreme precarity have little or no money left after covering these essential expenses. As a result, they are often forced to make difficult choices, such as skipping meals, making late payments, turning down the heat or going without medical care.

The study is available to read, click here. 

About Centraide of Greater Montreal 

A true agent of change, Centraide of Greater Montreal is a public foundation whose mission is to bring people together and take action for an inclusive and poverty-free Greater Montreal. To achieve this goal, it supports a network of 375 community agencies and projects in Laval, in Montreal and on the South Shore that improve the living conditions of people in a situation of poverty. Centraide works with the Greater Montreal population and with communities, businesses, institutions and philanthropic organizations. For more information or to contribute to Centraide's campaign, go to centraide-mtl.org.

SOURCE Centraide of Greater Montreal

For more information: Annick Gagnon, Public Relations Advisor, Centraide of Greater Montreal, 514-437-3672, [email protected]