2026 Economic Outlook: From Tariff Turmoil to Execution

Alberta Projected to Keep Outpacing Canada's Economy

EDMONTON, AB, Dec. 9, 2025 /CNW/ - Alberta's economy faces another year of trade adversity in 2026, but is expected to once again outpace the national economy in growth, according to ATB Financial's latest Economic Outlook. The report, titled "Crosscurrents: Alberta's economy in 2026 and 2027," projects the province's real GDP will grow by 2.1 per cent next year and 2.4 per cent in 2027, higher than the 1.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent expected for the national economy. The province is forecast to resume GDP growth in per capita terms next year.

The Outlook highlights that, while trade uncertainty remains an ongoing theme, the focus is shifting more to execution on promises by Canadian policymakers to build faster, export overseas, and trade more freely within the nation.

Rising oil production and enhanced access to the Asian markets will continue to lift Alberta exports. More broadly, the Alberta economy will benefit from a lower U.S. effective tariff rate. Ongoing diversification in areas like aviation, food processing, tourism and technology also underpins the growth forecast. On the other hand, oil and gas capital spending is forecast to remain flat next year amid weaker oil prices, and trade tensions (including ongoing uncertainty about the future of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) are weighing on business investment.

Population growth is expected to ease further next year, slowing the pace of consumer spending and housing activity. Housing starts will hold above historic norms, but fall from 2025's record level. More balance will return to the labour market, with the unemployment rate now forecast to average 6.5 per cent next year, down from 7.2 per cent in 2025.

"Alberta's economy has been fairly resilient to the trade shock --aided by a lower effective tariff rate, persistent migration, rising energy production and record housing starts" said Mark Parsons, ATB Financial Chief Economist. "However, trade uncertainty will continue to weigh on economic activity in Alberta ", Parsons added. "The focus across Canada is turning to execution of plans to attract private sector investment, get shovels in the ground on major projects, and expand the nation's export markets."

About ATB Financial
Powering possibilities for our clients, communities, and beyond is what drives us at ATB Financial. As a leading Alberta-based financial institution with over $100 billion in total assets and assets under management, our success comes from more than 5,000 team members who deliver exceptional experiences to over 843,000 clients across our Personal and Business Banking, ATB Wealth Management, and ATB Capital Markets businesses. ATB Financial provides expert advice and services through our extensive branch network and agencies, Client Care Centre, entrepreneur centers, and our digital banking options. ATB Financial is bronze certified as part of the Partnership Accreditation in Indigenous Relations commissioned by the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business.

General Disclosure
ATB Financial's Economic Outlook is intended for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered specific legal, financial, tax or other professional advice or recommendations. Information presented is believed to be reliable and up-to-date but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The actual outcome may be materially different. ATB Financial and any of its affiliates are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by ATB Financial or any of its affiliates and related entities.

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SOURCE ATB Financial