Economic growth expected to surge ahead in 2011
"The impact of the recession was delayed in
According to the report, hard-hit sectors of other provinces are showing signs of emerging from cyclical lows, but the economic downturn is still exerting downward pressure on key industrial sectors in
Public infrastructure spending is expected to fuel activity in Quebec's economy in 2010 but this impact will start to diminish. Fiscal stimulus through the five-year
"This plan provided a much-needed buffer against the recession in 2009. Its absence is not expected to throw Quebec's economy off course as business capital spending should increase and pick up the slack." added Wright.
RBC is forecasting that real GDP growth in
The main theme of the RBC Economics Provincial Outlook is that a mild economic recovery is expected to be widespread among provinces in 2010, after a significant contraction spread across the country in 2009 (with only Manitoba and Nova Scotia avoiding it). The full force of fiscal and monetary stimulus should positively contribute to growth in 2010. The price tag for that stimulus however, will be huge budget deficits. While such deficits might cause some discomfort, the alternative was even less attractive given the severity of the economic downturn. Returning to balance over the medium term will be a challenge involving difficult choices. Provincial economies are expected to be in solid growth territory in 2011, with most western provinces - led by Saskatchewan - hitting higher growth rates than the 3.9 per cent national average. The exception will be B.C., which will be experiencing some post-Olympics challenges.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales and housing starts.
According to the report, available online as of
Real Housing Retail GDP starts sales Y/Y % Change Thousands Y/Y % Change 09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- N.& L. -4.5 2.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.0 4.2 5.4 P.E.I. -0.1 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 -0.7 3.7 4.4 N.S. 0.0 2.8 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.1 -0.3 4.4 4.9 N.B. -0.3 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.5 -0.4 3.7 4.1 QUE. -1.6 2.2 3.7 41.5 42.0 44.0 -0.9 4.3 5.1 ONT. -3.2 2.4 4.0 50.5 65.0 68.0 -2.7 3.8 5.6 MAN. 0.2 3.0 4.0 4.2 5.4 5.5 -1.3 5.1 5.8 SASK. -1.6 3.9 4.6 3.4 4.1 4.4 -2.3 5.5 6.1 ALTA. -3.4 2.4 4.4 19.2 28.5 30.5 -8.5 4.9 7.0 B.C. -2.6 3.2 3.4 15.6 24.5 27.5 -5.8 5.7 4.6 CANADA -2.5 2.6 3.9 145.4 181 191 -3.3 4.4 5.5 Unemployment Employment rate CPI Y/Y % Change % Y/Y % Change 09 10 11 09 10 11 09 10 11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- N.& L. -2.5 0.6 1.8 15.5 15.7 14.9 0.4 1.8 2.3 P.E.I. -1.3 2.1 1.2 12.2 12.0 11.7 0.0 2.2 2.4 N.S. 0.0 1.3 2.0 9.2 9.4 8.8 0.0 2.1 2.4 N.B. 0.1 1.3 1.5 8.9 8.9 8.5 0.3 2.0 2.3 QUE. -1.0 1.1 2.2 8.5 8.8 8.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 ONT. -2.4 1.1 2.5 9.1 9.7 8.5 0.3 1.3 2.1 MAN. 0.2 1.4 2.2 5.2 5.5 4.9 0.7 1.8 2.3 SASK. 1.5 1.2 2.7 4.8 5.1 4.5 1.3 2.3 2.9 ALTA. -1.2 1.2 3.1 6.6 6.9 5.9 -0.2 1.3 2.0 B.C. -2.4 2.1 1.7 7.6 7.5 6.9 0.1 1.2 2.0 CANADA -1.5 1.3 2.3 8.3 8.7 7.8 0.3 1.5 2.2
For further information: For further information: Craig Wright, RBC Economics, (416) 974-7457; Robert Hogue, RBC Economics, (416) 974-6192; Matt Gierasimczuk, RBC Media Relations, (416) 974-2124
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