HALIFAX, April 19, 2012 /CNW/ - Nova Scotia's international exports are expected to decline by 1 per cent this year before launching a 12 per cent rebound in 2013, according to the Global Export Forecast released today by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"Nova Scotia's exports will see a slight, temporary decline in 2012 as the province copes with a significant drop in natural gas prices and shutdowns of two paper mills," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist of EDC.
"Next year, Nova Scotia will see exports surge by 12 per cent as demand from the U.S. is expected to pick up, helping all sectors. At the same time, increased demand from Russia, China and South Korea will help lift the fisheries industries."
The three key exporting sectors for Nova Scotia are agri-food, accounting for 26 per cent of the province's total exports; motor vehicles and parts, accounting for 24 per cent; and forestry, accounting for 16 per cent.
"We're very excited to see the advances in market diversification by the lobster and shrimp industry, which we believe will be a key factor in stabilizing the industry's prosperity over the short- and long-term," Hall said. "Add in the developments in Nova Scotia's aquaculture sector and recent investments in processing capacity, and there's a recipe for sustainable and predictable growth that can better manage price fluctuations." EDC's forecast calls for Nova Scotia's agri-food exports to grow by 7 per cent this year and 3 per cent in 2013.
"While Michelin is expected to hold production steady this year, volumes will ramp up from 2013 through 2015." EDC predicts growth in this sector of 3 per cent this year and 13 per cent in 2013.
"Nova Scotia's forestry sector exports will take a steep drop this year owing to the New Page mill closure and the Bowater shutdown. This alone will drain several hundred million dollars from the province's export performance." Hall said that the province's forestry sector exports will decline by 37 per cent this year before seeing a partial, 15 per cent rebound in 2013.
Hall was in Halifax today to share his forecast with the province's exporters, the first of an 18-city cross-Canada tour. The tour is designed to offer market- and sector-specific insights to help Canadian exporting companies grow their international business.
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be prepared. Read EDC's Global Export Forecast.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 7,700 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
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