TORONTO, April 23, 2026 /CNW/ - The Canadian economy is expected to show modest growth in the first half of 2026, finds the latest Main Street Quarterly report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
Key highlights of the Q1 2026 edition of the Main Street Quarterly report
- CFIB's estimates and forecasts in partnership with AppEco suggest the Canadian economy grew 1.6% in Q1 2026 and is expected to increase to 1.6% in Q2. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to be around 2.9% in Q2 2026.
- After declines all throughout last year, private investment is expected to recover by 3.1% in the first quarter and 2.9% in the second quarter.
- A special analysis this quarter reveals that small firms' investment plans are edging back to their historical average. However, with business confidence indicating cautious optimism, business owners are prioritizing upkeep over expansion projects.
- The sectoral profile on investment shows that at least two-thirds of firms in every sector plan to invest in employee training. A strong majority of firms in most sectors look to invest in marketing and promotion, while at least half of firms across most sectors, plan to invest in non-AI technology or equipment.
- The Q1 2026 private sector job vacancy rate remained unchanged at 2.8%, representing 391,300 unfilled positions.
Conclusions by CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research, Simon Gaudreault:
- While current geopolitical tensions and fuel volatility are putting pressure on consumers and businesses, we forecast the Canadian economy will show a modest recovery for the first half of 2026. This strength stems from strong oil and gas production as well as sustained construction activity. However, challenges persist and small business-friendly policies, such as the temporary pause on the federal fuel taxes, would provide a much-needed relief for firms that continue to face sky-high operating costs.
- After declining for most of 2025 and closing the year with an overall contraction of 1.7%, small firms' investment plans are signalling positive but cautious sentiment. Most businesses remain focused on maintaining existing operations rather than on major expansion amid higher costs, uncertainty, and continued soft demand.
About AppEco
AppEco is a consulting firm specializing in economic and strategic analysis. It possesses in-depth technical expertise and delivers first-class services in applied economics: economic impact studies, surveys and polls, cost-benefit analyses, modelling, econometrics, pricing, etc. Its mission is to provide useful services that contribute to economic growth and the success of clients' projects. AppEco works with firms of all sizes, from small to multinationals, as well as governments and non-profit organizations. Learn more at appeco.ca/en.
About CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada's largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 103,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners' chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.
SOURCE Canadian Federation of Independent Business (Toronto)
For media enquiries or interviews, please contact: Dariya Baiguzhiyeva, CFIB, 647-464-2814, [email protected]
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