Canada risks missing out on billions in critical mineral investment without swift policy changes: report

Governments can attract investment, accelerate development, and capture opportunities arising from the global energy transition by sharing financial risks while upholding Indigenous rights and environmental protections

OTTAWA, ON, June 12, 2025 /CNW/ - New research from the Canadian Climate Institute finds governments should act swiftly to de-risk critical minerals investment and accelerate project timelines—without cutting corners on Indigenous rights and environmental protections—to avoid missing out on a multi-billion dollar economic opportunity. 

Six priority critical minerals—copper, nickel, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and rare earth elements—form the building blocks of clean technologies like renewable energy and electric vehicles, among others. Canada's current production levels have barely scratched the surface of existing reserves, and demand is growing for these minerals that are essential to enhancing Canada's energy security and enabling the global transition to clean technologies.

A report published today by the Canadian Climate Institute, Critical Path: Securing Canada's place in the global critical minerals race, finds that investment in these six priority critical minerals in Canada would have to grow substantially to keep pace with domestic and global demand. In fact, by 2040, Canada risks losing out on $12 billion a year in critical minerals production unless mining ramps up to meet demand from domestic industry alone.

Amid increased competition for critical minerals, geopolitical turmoil, and rapidly evolving trade relationships, new investment of $30 billion would have to flow into Canada over the next 15 years to fully meet domestic critical minerals potential. To meet the growth in global demand—which is expected to double by 2040—investment in Canadian critical minerals would have to increase to $65 billion in that time frame.

Yet investment into critical mineral projects hinges on expectations about future market prices—some of which are extremely volatile and can be overly affected by the actions of a few powerful players. To give investors more certainty, governments should act swiftly to share risks through targeted policies and programs, such as equity investments, offtake agreements, or contracts for difference. 

The report underscores that successful critical mineral projects require strong partnerships with Indigenous nations and communities, ongoing respect and recognition of Indigenous rights and self-determination, and robust environmental protections. It recommends governments streamline and accelerate project review processes by reducing inefficiencies, but warns that cutting corners when it comes to Indigenous rights and protecting the environment has been proven to backfire and lead to further delays.

Specifically, the report recommends the federal, provincial, and territorial governments de-risk critical mineral mining projects by:

• Developing agreements between government and private companies to share the financial risk of investment in critical mineral projects.
• Providing more funding for Indigenous communities to participate and partner on mining projects and enhance access to capital for ownership opportunities.
• Strengthening mining regulations to reduce environmental risks and liabilities for communities that build on existing voluntary standards.
• Improving the efficiency of project reviews and decision making processes across multiple jurisdictions, without cutting back environmental safeguards or Indigenous consultation.

The Climate Institute also commissioned three companion papers exploring related topics, including: Indigenous participation in the critical minerals sector, the emissions impact of ramping up critical minerals mining in Canada, and measures to reduce the environmental risks of increased mining activities.

QUOTES

"Critical minerals represent a multi-billion dollar opportunity for Canada in a global energy transition that continues to pick up pace. But Canada's critical minerals sector is struggling to attract enough investment to keep up with demand. As competition heats up and trade relationships evolve, Canadian governments should make haste to adopt policies to unlock private investment and bring resources to market faster—all while forming respectful partnerships with Indigenous communities and reducing environmental risks."
— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

"Securing Canada's place in the global critical minerals race requires swift action to unlock public and private investment that can power Canada's energy transition with the building blocks of clean technologies. Our Critical Path report offers a clear blueprint for the steps governments can take to seize this opportunity."
— Marisa Beck, Director, Clean Growth, Canadian Climate Institute

"All clean growth projects will be built on treaty lands, land claim areas, traditional territories, or within close proximity to an Indigenous community. This unique moment in time can affirm Indigenous rights to land and self-determination and encourage meaningful partnership between Indigenous nations, industry, and government. The Canadian Climate Institute's report provides a clear path on how Canada can grow its critical minerals sector in full partnership with Indigenous Peoples."
— JP Gladu, Founder and Principal, Mokwateh

"Canada has an opportunity to lead the transition to cleaner energy sources, but seizing that opportunity requires accelerating the development of a secure and circular domestic value chain for Canada's battery industry, from mine to market to recovery. Investing in Canadian critical minerals mining and processing will create jobs, grow the economy, and ensure Canada secures its place as a global leader in the battery value chain."
— Sean de Vries, Executive Director, Battery Metals Association of Canada

"Canada has a significant opportunity at hand to develop our critical mineral reserves, which among other imperatives are critical for a lower-emissions economy. This report clearly demonstrates the importance of making it easier for mining projects to secure financing to make this happen. By deploying loan guarantees and other financial risk-sharing instruments to de-risk projects, federal and provincial governments in Canada can crowd-in private capital, and keep projects on track despite market uncertainty."
— John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President, Office of the CEO, Royal Bank of Canada

RESOURCES

• Report | Critical Path: Securing Canada's place in the global critical minerals race
• Scoping paper | Climate change, Critical minerals and Indigenous Engagement with Regulatory Processes (JP Gladu, Ken Coates, and Katarina Savic)
• Scoping paper | Mining decarbonization: Enhancing Canada's low-carbon advantage in the global critical minerals race (Eyab Al-Aini)
• Scoping paper | Managing environmental risks of mining critical minerals in Canada (Christopher Pollan and Eyab Al-Aini)

CONTACTS
Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
[phone]

Krystal Northey (Pacific Time)
Public Affairs Lead
Canadian Climate Institute
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About the Canadian Climate Institute
The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada's leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada's net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.
climateinstitute.ca

SOURCE Canadian Climate Institute