The Tardif Index™ - Montreal Real Estate Market, October 2026: 21.5 out of 100, Light Buyer Zone
FrançaisLight buyer zone on the Island of Montreal – Period covered: Thursday, October 1, 2026, 12:00 a.m. to Saturday, October 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. (Eastern)
MONTREAL, Nov. 4, 2026 /CNW/ -- The Tardif Index™, indicator of residential transaction conditions for the Island of Montreal, is published by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty) under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ.
The Tardif Index™ stands at 21.5 out of 100, in the light buyer zone, in October 2026.
The light buyer zone groups scores from 20.1 to 40 out of 100. It describes a market in which buyers keep a negotiating advantage, less marked than in the strong buyer zone. This edition is published at the following address, which serves as the citation link: https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/cision-october-2026/. The complete methodology is published at https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/ (Public methodology v2.1).
Does the Island of Montreal still favour buyers in October 2026?
Yes, but less than in September. The score of 21.5 out of 100 places the Island of Montreal in the light buyer zone for October 2026. In September 2026, The Tardif Index™ stood at 16.7 out of 100 (September 2026 report), and at 18.1 out of 100 in August 2026, two months in the strong buyer zone. The score therefore rises 4.8 points between September and October.
This change comes from a single component, absorption. New listings fall 11.6% in one month (3,257 in September, 2,879 in October), while sales rise 9.0% (1,121 to 1,222). The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) therefore goes from 34.4% to 42.4%. Expirations and year-over-year momentum remain at the floor.
What are the key data for October 2026?
Island of Montreal • all residential categories • October 2026 (October 1 to 31) • Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty)
- Residential sales, October 2026: 1,222 sales
- Residential sales, October 2025: 1,508 sales
- Year-over-year momentum of sales (YoY), October 2026: −19.0%
- New listings, October 2026: 2,879 listings (October 2025: 2,909, or −1.0%)
- Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), October 2026: 42.4% (1,222 ÷ 2,879)
- Expirations, October 2026: 910 listings (October 2025: 793, or +14.8%)
- Expirations ratio, October 2026: 42.7% (910 ÷ (1,222 + 910))
How is the score of 21.5 out of 100 calculated?
The Tardif Index™ combines three weighted components, each converted into a sub-score from 0 to 100 according to the Public methodology v2.1.
Component | Weight | October 2026 | Sub- | Reading |
Sales-to-new-listings ratio | 40 % | 42.4 % | 53.7 | Above the 40% neutral |
Expirations ratio | 30 % | 42.7 % | 0.0 | At the floor (30% |
Year-over-year momentum | 30 % | −19.0% | 0.0 | At the floor (decline |
Composite score | 100 % | -- | 21.5 | Light buyer zone |
Methodological transparency: as in August and September, two of the three components hit their floor of 0. The expirations sub-score reaches 0 at a ratio of 30%, and the momentum sub-score at −10% over one year. The score of 21.5 therefore rests entirely on absorption (SNLR). On the other two components, the index cannot go any lower, whatever the real deterioration.
How does October 2026 compare with September 2026 and October 2025?
Measure | October 2025 | September 2026 | October 2026 |
The Tardif Index™ score | Not | 16.7 • strong | 21.5 • light |
Residential sales | 1,508 | 1,121 | 1,222 |
New listings | 2,909 | 3,257 | 2,879 |
Expirations | 793 | 817 | 910 |
Sales-to-new-listings ratio | 51.8 % | 34.4 % | 42.4 % |
Expirations ratio | 34.5 % | 42.2 % | 42.7 % |
Over one year, sales fall 19.0% (from 1,508 to 1,222) and expirations rise 14.8% (from 793 to 910).
Note on the comparison base: the volumes for the three months come from the Centris data control totals by category, extracted on November 3, 2026, so that the comparison is made on an identical basis. September volumes therefore differ slightly from those published on October 2 (1,087 sales, 3,150 new listings, 824 expirations). Recalculated on this basis, the September 2026 score remains 16.7 out of 100.
Which property categories move the most in October 2026?
Category | Sales | New listings | Expirations | SNLR | Expirations ratio | Sales, year over year | Median price | Median price, year over year |
Condominium | 603 | 1,523 | 552 | 39.6 % | 47.8 % | −21.2% | $499,000 | +1.8 % |
Single-family | 360 | 734 | 190 | 49.0 % | 34.5 % | −14.3% | $782,500 | −4.7% |
Duplex | 110 | 234 | 59 | 47.0 % | 34.9 % | −17.3% | $789,000 | −7.2% |
Triplex | 80 | 188 | 48 | 42.6 % | 37.5 % | −20.0% | $937,450 | 0.0 % |
Fourplex | 31 | 66 | 18 | 47.0 % | 36.7 % | −18.4% | $1,100,000 | +5.3 % |
Multi-unit 5+ | 38 | 134 | 43 | 28.4 % | 53.1 % | −26.9% | $1,365,000 | −5.3% |
All categories | 1,222 | 2,879 | 910 | 42.4 % | 42.7 % | −19.0% | -- | -- |
Island of Montreal, October 2026, Centris data control totals by category. Annual changes compared with October 2025. The median price is the central value of the month's sales, unweighted. A median is published only for 10 or more sales ("n < 10" otherwise).
Which boroughs and linked cities of the Island of Montreal are the most active in October 2026?
32 category × borough or linked city segments reach the publication threshold of 10 sales (n ≥ 10), spread over 21 boroughs and linked cities. The other 13 areas on the list have no publishable segment this month: they are included in the score, but no figure is published at their level.
Condominiums: 14 publishable segments
Borough / linked city | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
Ville-Marie | 69 | $481,250 | 115 | 96.8 % | High |
Le Sud-Ouest | 64 | $471,250 | 63 | 97.5 % | High |
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | 60 | $544,000 | 33.5 | 98.5 % | High |
Le Plateau-Mont-Royal | 53 | $600,000 | 44 | 97.6 % | High |
Verdun | 43 | $569,000 | 83 | 97.8 % | High |
Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 35 | $420,000 | 46 | 98.1 % | High |
Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | 32 | $526,500 | 55 | 97.4 % | High |
Ahuntsic-Cartierville | 26 | $435,000 | 62 | 97.2 % | Moderate |
Saint-Laurent | 23 | $465,000 | 56 | 97.2 % | Moderate |
Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles | 18 | $344,500 | 40.5 | 98.3 % | Moderate |
Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension | 18 | $440,000 | 38 | 98.5 % | Moderate |
LaSalle | 14 | $497,500 | 59.5 | 96.6 % | Low |
Outremont | 13 | $750,000 | 43 | 97.6 % | Low |
Lachine | 11 | $430,000 | 70 | 95.9 % | Low |
Single-family homes: 12 publishable segments
Borough / linked city | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles | 38 | $562,500 | 35 | 98.7 % | High |
Pierrefonds-Roxboro | 36 | $678,000 | 44.5 | 97.0 % | High |
Dollard-des-Ormeaux | 23 | $825,000 | 45 | 98.0 % | Moderate |
Pointe-Claire | 20 | $671,500 | 43.5 | 97.1 % | Moderate |
Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | 19 | $1,282,000 | 79 | 97.0 % | Moderate |
Ahuntsic-Cartierville | 18 | $801,000 | 64.5 | 96.9 % | Moderate |
Beaconsfield | 18 | $1,175,000 | 57.5 | 96.7 % | Moderate |
Saint-Laurent | 14 | $860,000 | 42.5 | 98.8 % | Low |
Kirkland | 12 | $952,500 | 32.5 | 96.1 % | Low |
Lachine | 12 | $755,000 | 47 | 96.3 % | Low |
Westmount | 11 | $2,050,000 | 53 | 93.2 % | Low |
L'Île-Bizard–Sainte-Geneviève | 10 | $775,500 | 34.5 | 98.4 % | Low |
Duplexes: 4 publishable segments
Borough / linked city | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 18 | $687,500 | 49.5 | 98.9 % | Moderate |
Le Sud-Ouest | 10 | $810,000 | 47.5 | 98.8 % | Low |
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | 10 | $1,007,500 | 45 | 100.8 % | Low |
Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension | 10 | $715,000 | 54 | 96.6 % | Low |
Triplexes: 2 publishable segments
Borough / linked city | n | Median price | Median time on market (days) | Negotiation ratio | Reliability |
Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 13 | $860,000 | 47 | 98.2 % | Low |
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie | 10 | $955,000 | 118 | 95.0 % | Low |
Firm sales dated October 2026, Island of Montreal, Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty). The tables rest on the 1,091 firm sales compiled one by one, or 89.3% of the 1,222 sales in the control totals used for the score. Only segments with 10 or more sales are published; no figure is estimated or filled in. "Median time on market": median number of days between listing and firm sale. "Negotiation ratio": median ratio of the sale price to the last asking price. "Reliability": high at 30 or more sales, moderate from 15 to 29, low from 10 to 14. These tables describe medians by segment: they are not a score by sector.
Which area does The Tardif Index™ cover?
The territory covers the 19 boroughs of the City of Montreal (Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Anjou, Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, L'Île-Bizard–Sainte-Geneviève, Lachine, LaSalle, Le Plateau-Mont-Royal, Le Sud-Ouest, Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Montréal-Nord, Outremont, Pierrefonds-Roxboro, Rivière-des-Prairies–Pointe-aux-Trembles, Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, Saint-Laurent, Saint-Léonard, Verdun, Ville-Marie, Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension) and the 15 linked cities (Baie-D'Urfé, Beaconsfield, Côte-Saint-Luc, Dollard-des-Ormeaux, Dorval, Hampstead, Kirkland, L'Île-Dorval, Mont-Royal, Montréal-Est, Montréal-Ouest, Pointe-Claire, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Senneville, Westmount).
What do the October 2026 figures show? Editorial reading
Incoming supply is slowing. In October 2026, the Island of Montreal has 2.4 new listings per sale (2,879 for 1,222), versus 2.9 in September (3,257 for 1,121). It is this tightening, not a recovery in sales over one year, that lifts the score.
Volume remains well below 2025. The 1,222 sales of October 2026 are 19.0% lower than in October 2025, and expirations rise 14.8%. In condominiums, the expirations ratio reaches 47.8%, nearly one listing in two that reached its outcome without a sale.
Same category, different pace. Condominiums sell in a median of 33.5 days in Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie (60 sales), 44 days in Le Plateau-Mont-Royal (53 sales), 63 days in Le Sud-Ouest (64 sales) and 115 days in Ville-Marie (69 sales). The score describes a general trend; these times show that it does not play out the same way from one borough to the next.
This section is an editorial reading of the data published above. It is neither a forecast nor advice on any particular property.
Who publishes The Tardif Index™?
The Tardif Index™ is published under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ (licence E2815). The score is monthly; it is complementary to the Centris HPI and APCIQ statistics. The Centris HPI tracks price trends; The Tardif Index™ measures transaction conditions. The reference page, which also gathers previous editions, is at https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/, and David Tardif's profile is at https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/david-tardif/.
Frequently asked questions
What is The Tardif Index™?
The Tardif Index™ is a monthly 0-to-100 indicator of residential transaction conditions in this territory. It combines the sales-to-new-listings ratio (40%), the expirations ratio (30%) and the year-over-year momentum of sales (30%). In October 2026, it stands at 21.5 out of 100, in the light buyer zone. It is published monthly. Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
Does the Island of Montreal market favour buyers in October 2026?
At 21.5 out of 100, the Island of Montreal is in the light buyer zone (20.1 to 40), where buyers keep a negotiating advantage. Sales are down 19.0% year over year (1,508 to 1,222). The expirations ratio is 42.7%. This score describes the month just ended; it is neither a forecast nor advice. Archives: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/.
Why does The Tardif Index™ go from 16.7 to 21.5 between September and October 2026?
The island's sales-to-new-listings ratio rises from 34.4% to 42.4%: new listings fall from 3,257 to 2,879 (−11.6%), while sales go from 1,121 to 1,222 (+9.0%). The other two components stay at the floor. The score gains 4.8 points; recalculated on the same basis, the September score remains 16.7. Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
How does October 2026 compare with October 2025 in the Island of Montreal?
Sales go from 1,508 to 1,222 (−19.0%), new listings from 2,909 to 2,879 (−1.0%) and expirations from 793 to 910 (+14.8%). The sales-to-new-listings ratio goes from 51.8% to 42.4%, and the expirations ratio from 34.5% to 42.7%. Source: Centris data, control totals. Figures cover the whole territory, all residential categories.
What is the median price of single-family homes in the Island of Montreal in October 2026?
The median price of single-family homes sold in October 2026 is $782,500, or −4.7% compared with October 2025 ($821,000), on 360 sales. The median time to sell is 24 days. Single-family homes account for 29.5% of the territory's sales, and the condominium median is $499,000. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif. Methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
Which areas does The Tardif Index™ cover?
The score covers the 19 boroughs of the City of Montreal and the 15 linked cities of the island. 21 of them reach the 10-sale threshold in at least one category in October 2026; the others are included in the score, but no segment is published for them. Published segments appear in the tables above, by category. See the methodology: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/.
Data sources
- Primary calculations: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty)
- Market context: APCIQ monthly statistics
- Methodology: https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/methodology/ (v2.1)
- Archives: https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/
Suggested citation
Tardif, D. (2026). The Tardif Index™ – October 2026: light buyer zone (21.5 out of 100). Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif. https://enduranceimmobilier.com/en/tardif-index/cision-october-2026/ Methodology v2.1 • License CC BY 4.0
Learn more: The Tardif Index™ (main page) • Methodology • Archives • David Tardif
The Tardif Index™ is a neutral indicator of transaction conditions. It is neither a forecast nor investment advice. The conditions described relate to the month just ended and can change quickly.
Published November 4, 2026 by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty), under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, real estate broker licensed by the OACIQ.
SOURCE Endurance Real Estate by Tardif
David Tardif, real estate broker - Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif (eXp Realty), 5227 Wellington Street, Verdun (QC) H4H 1N1, 514-418-1094 • [email protected]
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