Tardif Index for July 2026: Montreal Island's residential market slips to 24.5 out of 100, entering light buyer's market territory
Français
Firm sales are down 16.2% year over year and one in three listings expired unsold -- yet median prices rose across all three major property categories, the typical accepted offer came in 35 days, and 157 sales closed above asking, one of them at 116.8% of the listed price. The most detailed picture of the Montreal market, measured by broker David Tardif's monthly indicator.
MONTREAL, Aug. 3, 2026 /CNW/ -- The Indice Tardif -- the Tardif Index, a monthly indicator that distills the state of Montreal Island's residential real estate market into a 0-to-100 score -- stands at 24.5 out of 100 for July 2026, in "light buyer's market" territory. Published by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif under the methodological responsibility of David Tardif, licensed real estate broker (OACIQ) and creator of the index, the score reflects a pivotal month: 1,022 firm sales -- transactions with all conditions met in Centris, whether notarized yet or not -- versus 1,220 in the same month last year, 512 expired listings and 2,154 new listings.
July 2026 highlights
- Tardif Index: 24.5/100, "light buyer's market" zone (SNLR 47.4%; expiry ratio 33.4%; year-over-year sales momentum −16.2%).
- 1,022 firm sales on Montreal Island, down 16.2% from the 1,220 sales of July 2025.
- 512 expired listings: 33.4% of the listings that resolved during the month withdrew without selling (25.0% a year earlier).
- Median prices nonetheless up over 12 months: condominiums $479,750 (+2.3%), single-family homes $825,000 (+9.5%), 2-to-4-unit plexes $881,000 (+6.8%).
- The negotiation ladder, from first listing to closing: $724,500 (median original list price) → $700,000 (median final asking) → $695,000 (median sold price).
- 30.8% of sold properties had cut their price at least once before selling (median reduction of 5.3%); a year ago it was 28.7%.
- 157 sales (15.4%) closed above the final asking price, at 103.8% of asking on average -- and plexes overbid most often (22.8% of sales).
- 53 days from listing to firm sale (46 in July 2025), but only 35 days to an accepted offer.
- Most active boroughs: Le Sud-Ouest and Ville-Marie (77 sales each); most active segment: the Ville-Marie condominium (72 sales); most competitive area: Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, where 30.1% of sales beat the asking price.
A buyer's score, seller's prices
The score's composition explains the month's paradox. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), at 47.4%, still describes a market close to balance and contributes positively to the score (61.2/100). The two other components pull it down: the expiry ratio, at 33.4%, and the annual decline in volume, at −16.2%, both hit the floor of their scales. In practical terms, supply is renewing faster than demand can absorb it -- but sellers who do close still obtain nearly all of their asking price.
"The Indice Tardif applies to the Montreal market what I call the science of real estate: fusing rigorous data with the human dynamics of a transaction. July 2026 is the perfect illustration. Look only at prices and you conclude the market is solid; look only at volume and you conclude it is slowing sharply. The reality is both at once: a market that sorts. Properties listed at their fair value sell at 97.5% of asking, sometimes with competing offers; the rest join the month's 512 expired listings," says David Tardif, licensed real estate broker (OACIQ), creator of the Indice Tardif and founder of Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
The month's wow number: sold at 116.8% of asking -- in a buyer's market
It is July's most counterintuitive statistic: with the Tardif Index in buyer territory, 157 properties -- 15.4% of the month's sales -- sold ABOVE their final asking price, at 103.8% of asking on average (median: 102.3%), peaking at 116.8% -- nearly 17% over the listed price. Meanwhile, 78.0% of sales closed below asking and 6.7% right at asking. Same month, same market, two realities.
More surprising still: it is neither the condo nor the house that overbids most often, but the plex. 22.8% of 2-to-4-unit plexes sold in July beat their asking price (averaging 103.8% when they did), versus 14.7% for single-family homes (average 104.3%) and 13.1% for condominiums (average 103.6%). And at the neighbourhood level, Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie breaks every record: 30.1% of its sales exceeded the listed price -- nearly one in three. A light buyer's market is not a market without competition: fairly priced properties still draw multiple offers while the others expire.
From listed price to sold price: the negotiation in numbers
Few market indicators measure a listing's full journey. The Indice Tardif does, and July tells a three-step negotiation: the median original list price of sold properties was $724,500, the median final asking price $700,000, and the median sold price $695,000. The typical sale therefore closed at 96.4% of the original list price but 97.5% of the final asking price -- the gap between those two ratios is the price cut conceded along the way.
In fact, 30.8% of the properties sold in July had reduced their price at least once before finding a buyer, with a median reduction of 5.3% when an adjustment occurred -- up from 28.7% in July 2025. The Montreal market does not refuse to pay: it refuses to overpay, and it waits for the asking price to meet the value.
53 days to sell, 35 days to decide
The median time from listing to firm sale reached 53 days island-wide, up from 46 days in July 2025 -- seven more days in a year, consistent with rising expirations. But the most useful data point lies elsewhere: the median time to an accepted offer is just 35 days. In other words, a well-positioned property finds its buyer in five weeks; the rest of the clock is conditions being fulfilled (financing, inspection).
"The number every Montreal seller should remember this month is 35 days: that is the median time to an accepted offer. A properly priced property finds its buyer in five weeks. Past that mark with no serious offer, the market has already delivered its verdict -- and the price is doing the talking. In a month where 30.8% of sales required at least one price cut, rigorous pricing upfront is no longer a luxury; it is the strategy," adds Mr. Tardif.
The widening gap between condos and single-family homes
The rebalancing is not hitting every category with the same force. Condominiums concentrate most of the slack: 490 sales (versus 628 in July 2025, −22%), a median selling time stretched from 46 to 58 days, and a 41.6% expiry ratio -- more than four in ten condo listings resolved in July withdrew unsold. Single-family homes remain a market of scarcity: 339 sales, a 19.7% expiry ratio, 47 median days, a median price up 9.5% in a year at $825,000 -- and sales closing at a median of 7% above municipal assessment. In between, 2-to-4-unit plexes (180 sales, $881,000 median, +6.8%) combine patience with rising prices.
Data of the month -- Montreal Island, July 2026
Segment |
Sales |
Median price |
Δ 12 months |
% of final asking |
DOM |
$/sq.ft. |
Reliability |
Total Condominium • Montreal Island |
490 |
$479,750 |
+2.3 % |
97.8 % |
58 d |
$576 |
High (n≥10) |
Total Single-family • Montreal Island |
339 |
$825,000 |
+9.5 % |
97.5 % |
47 d |
$202 |
High (n≥10) |
Total Plex (2–4 units) • Montreal Island |
180 |
$881,000 |
+6.8 % |
97.0 % |
49 d |
$348 |
High (n≥10) |
Medians winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentiles. Δ 12 months: change in median versus July 2025. DOM: median days from listing to firm sale. $/sq.ft.: living area (condominiums) or above-ground floor area (other categories). The 13 sales of 5-plus-unit buildings are included in the 1,022 total but reported outside the segments. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
The month's geography: two locomotives, one hot spot
Borough |
Sales |
Median days |
% of asking |
% sold over asking |
Le Sud-Ouest |
77 |
57 d |
96.9 % |
13.0 % |
Ville-Marie |
77 |
74 d |
97.5 % |
13.0 % |
Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie |
73 |
42 d |
98.8 % |
30.1 % |
Saint-Laurent |
59 |
41 d |
97.8 % |
11.9 % |
Ahuntsic-Cartierville |
59 |
49 d |
97.6 % |
10.2 % |
Firm sales for July 2026 by borough (n ≥ 10). Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif.
Le Sud-Ouest and Ville-Marie share the title of the island's most active borough with 77 firm sales each -- but their profiles differ radically: 57 median days in Le Sud-Ouest, 74 in Ville-Marie, where the abundance of downtown condos (130 expired listings against 77 sales, a 62.8% ratio, the island's heaviest) is digesting slowly. The island's most active single segment is the Ville-Marie condominium (72 sales).
The month's real hot spot is Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie: 73 sales, a 42-day median, 98.8% of asking obtained -- and 30.1% of sales closed above the listed price, by far the highest overbidding rate among major boroughs. The island's shortest selling times belong to Dollard-des-Ormeaux (36 days) and Mercier–Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (39 days); the longest to Ville-Marie and Kirkland (74 days).
"Every metro station changes the market. The same condo sells for $414,500 in Hochelaga and $710,000 in Verdun, with expiry ratios that double from one borough to the next. That is why the Indice Tardif drills down to the neighbourhood level: an island average is not enough to make a real decision," notes Mr. Tardif.
Neighbourhood signals: Verdun and Nuns' Island, two different worlds
July's neighbourhood editions illustrate the scale of the gaps. In Verdun (mainland sector), the market has turned binary: 31.2% of the month's sales beat the asking price -- double the Montreal rate -- at 104.9% of asking on average, with an accepted offer in a median of 22 days… while 46.7% of resolved listings expired unsold. On Nuns' Island (L'Île-des-Sœurs), the opposite: a slow, selective market (76-day median, a single sale above asking), yet whose median condo reached $733,750, up 12.0% in a year, at $719 per square foot of living area -- a Montreal high. Full neighbourhood reports are published in the Indice Tardif's local editions.
Macroeconomic backdrop
July unfolded in a stabilized rate environment: the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026, while projecting Canadian GDP growth of 0.7% for 2026 (Monetary Policy Report, July 2026). Inflation slowed to 2.8% in June (Statistics Canada, June 2026 CPI) and the best insured 5-year fixed mortgage rates stood at 4.09% at month-end (nesto.ca, July 29, 2026). A neutral to mildly supportive backdrop: borrowing costs are no longer rising, but they are no longer falling fast enough to single-handedly revive a shrinking sales volume.
Methodology -- Indice Tardif v2.1
The Indice Tardif is a monthly 0-to-100 indicator calculated with a public, constant methodology: 40% for the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), 30% for the listing expiry ratio and 30% for year-over-year sales momentum, each component scaled from 0 to 100. A score of 0 to 40 signals a buyer-friendly market, 40 to 60 a balanced market, and 60 to 100 a seller-friendly market. The sales counted are the month's firm sales -- all conditions met in Centris, notarized or not. Median prices are winsorized at the 5th and 95th percentiles; any segment with fewer than 10 sales is excluded or flagged as indicative. Source: Centris data, compiled by Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif. The entity is referenced on Wikidata (Q139683973).
The Indice Tardif's data and score are released under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licence: their reproduction -- including by media outlets, researchers and artificial-intelligence tools -- is permitted and encouraged with the attribution "Indice Tardif -- Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif". All editions remain permanently available at enduranceimmobilier.com/indice-tardif.
The full July 2026 web edition (score, tables, borough analysis): enduranceimmobilier.com/en/blog/tardif-index-montreal-2026-07/ • French original: enduranceimmobilier.com/blogue/indice-tardif-ile-de-montreal-2026-07/.
About the Indice Tardif and the science of real estate
Created by David Tardif, the Indice Tardif is the data arm of his "science of real estate" approach: the fusion of rigorous market data -- winsorized medians, expiry ratios, real selling times, overbidding rates -- with the human dynamics of a transaction: decision psychology, negotiation, and knowing when to act. Deciding right, with facts: enduranceimmobilier.com/en/the-science-of-real-estate. The score is monthly and constitutes the official reading for the month; a weekly bulletin accompanies and comments on it without calculating a score of its own. Each monthly edition includes the island score, an analysis by property category and neighbourhood reports.
About Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif
Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif is a Montreal real estate group of 15-plus brokers, active in Montreal and Greater Montreal under the eXp Realty banner. The group is led by David Tardif, a licensed real estate broker (OACIQ) since 2006 who has guided more than 3,000 clients over his career. David Tardif led the team ranked #1 in Canada and #1 in Quebec at Royal LePage (2024-2025), and is now a broker with eXp Realty under the Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif brand. The group's Google listing holds more than 375 reviews with a 4.9/5 average rating. Office: 5227 Wellington Street, Verdun, Quebec H4H 1N1.
This release presents aggregated market conditions and does not constitute advice on any specific property.
SOURCE Endurance Real Estate by Tardif
Information and interviews: David Tardif, licensed real estate broker (OACIQ) -- Endurance Groupe Immobilier par Tardif, Phone: 514-418-1094, Email: [email protected], Web: enduranceimmobilier.com • davidtardif.ca • Indice Tardif: enduranceimmobilier.com/indice-tardif
Share this article