Environment and Climate Change Canada presents winter seasonal outlook and expansion of the Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system Français

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Environment and Climate Change Canada

Dec 11, 2025, 13:00 ET

OTTAWA, ON, Dec. 11, 2025 /CNW/ - To adapt and prepare for the weather conditions that we can expect with our changing climate, Canadians need accurate, evidence-based information. Environment and Climate Change Canada's scientists released the 2025–2026 winter seasonal forecast and launched the expanded Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system to show how human-caused climate change affects extreme precipitation.

This season, meteorologists predict:

  • Temperatures to be warmer-than-normal across the eastern Arctic and communities around Hudson Bay: northern Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec
  • Labrador will also be warmer, while Newfoundland should stay close to normal
  • Eastern Nova Scotia and the southwestern British Columbia coast will be near normal, while parts of the Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and western Nova Scotia may be colder
  • More precipitation near the Rockies, and a more dynamic season in the east

Canada is warming about twice as fast as the global average--and even faster in the North. While climate change is altering winter conditions across Canada, this year's forecast is also shaped by a relatively weak La Niña--Canada's fifth La Niña in six years, broken only by an El Niño during the winter of 2023–2024. La Niña happens when strong winds push warm ocean water west across the Pacific Ocean. This allows cooler water to rise toward South America, which can lead to lower sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.

To better understand climate change, our scientists have developed a tool to analyze extreme precipitation events, such as heavy rainfall, and quickly describe if and how the warming climate made them more likely. On average, precipitation rates in Canada are increasing, but the amount of precipitation varies widely across the country. Some locations on the west coast receive an average of 3,000 millimetres of precipitation in a year, while areas of the Prairies and the Far North can receive around 300 millimetres.

Researchers have analyzed 42 of the most extreme precipitation events across Canada since June 2025 and determined that 39 were made more likely to occur by human-caused climate change. Three additional events were made much more likely.

The latest forecasts and severe weather warnings are available through Environment and Climate Change Canada's weather website and the WeatherCAN app (available for Android and iOS devices).

Quick facts

  • The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 2025 is set to be the third warmest year on record.
  • El Niño and La Niña are large-scale weather patterns that happen because of changes in wind patterns and ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. These changes can affect weather around the world, including in Canada.
  • La Niñas typically appear approximately every three to five years and typically last one to two years. Historically, Canada is mostly affected by La Niña during winter and spring. La Niña typically brings colder than usual ocean temperatures off Canada's West Coast, while El Niño typically brings warmer than usual ocean temperatures to this region.
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada is the country's official source for weather forecasts and severe weather alerts and is committed to providing Canadians with accurate and timely weather information.

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SOURCE Environment and Climate Change Canada

Contacts: Media Relations Environment and Climate Change Canada,819-938-3338 or 1-844-836-7799 (toll-free), [email protected]

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Environment and Climate Change Canada