OTTAWA, March 13, 2018 /CNW/ - The economies of Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg are all expected to experience growth of 2.2 per cent in 2018, although they face varied economic conditions, according to The Conference Board of Canada's Metropolitan Outlook: Winter 2018. In Winnipeg and Saskatoon, this year's pace of GDP expansion represents a cooling from 2017, while Regina's growth will be similar to last year's.
"Regina's and Saskatoon's economies were hit hard by the commodities crash, but both emerged from recession last year and will continue their moderately paced economic recovery into 2018," said Alan Arcand, Associate Director, Center for Municipal Studies, The Conference Board of Canada. "Meanwhile, after posting its best performance in nearly two decades last year, Winnipeg's economy is expected to post much slower but still decent growth this year."
- Regina's real GDP is expected to grow 2.2 per cent in 2018, similar to last year's 2.3 per cent expansion.
- Saskatoon's real GDP is projected to climb by 2.2 per cent in 2018, down from a 4.1 per cent increase in 2017.
- Winnipeg's real GDP growth is forecast to moderate from 3.7 per cent in 2017 to 2.2 per cent in 2018.
- Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission are forecast to be the fastest growing census metropolitan areas (CMA) in Canada this year, with real GDP forecast to grow by 2.7 and 2.5 per cent, respectively.
Regina's economy will grow at a similar pace to last year, with real GDP forecast to rise by 2.2 per cent in 2018. Regina's manufacturing sector is set to advance at a much slower 1.7 per cent this year, following outsized gains of 8.0 per cent last year. Regina's construction industry should see solid growth this year, largely fuelled by ongoing work on the $1.9-billion Regina Bypass project, the largest infrastructure undertaking in Saskatchewan history. Regina's services output growth is set to improve from a modest 1.2 per cent last year to 2.2 per cent in 2018, with only the education industry contracting. Job growth is forecast to reach a modest 0.4 per cent this year, half the pace of last year.
Saskatoon took a big leap forward last year, as its real GDP jumped 4.1 per cent following two years of small contractions. The city's economic recovery will continue into 2018, with real GDP expected to rise 2.2 per cent. Although work has begun on several major non-residential projects, including two major office towers in the city's downtown core, construction output will increase by just 1.0 per cent in 2018 due to an expected drop in housing starts. Modest growth is expected to resume in Saskatoon's manufacturing sector in 2018, following three consecutive annual declines. Meanwhile, growth in Saskatoon's services-producing industries will remain healthy at 2.5 per cent this year and next. Employment is forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent this year, holding the unemployment rate at 7.8 per cent.
Winnipeg's real GDP growth hit a 19-year high of 3.7 per cent in 2017, but it is expected to ease to a still-decent 2.2 per cent this year. Buoyed by solid demand for goods produced by local transportation equipment manufacturers, and also a low Canadian dollar and healthy U.S. economy, the local manufacturing sector is poised to expand for a third consecutive year in 2018. But a large drop in single-detached housing starts will cut total housing starts by over 20 per cent, trimming output growth both in construction and in finance, insurance, and real estate. Despite continued income and job gains, output growth is also expected to slow in retail trade, as rising interest rates convince households to rein in their borrowing and increase savings. Despite its moderating economy, Winnipeg's labour market shows no signs of slowing down, with 7,200 net new jobs forecast to be created in 2018.
Released today, Metropolitan Outlook: Winter 2018, is The Conference Board of Canada's once-a-year analysis of 29 Canadian census metropolitan areas.
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SOURCE Conference Board of Canada
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