Conditions support a housing market recovery, but uncertainty stalls momentum

Strong housing market fundamentals not enough to bring buyers back to the table

Third quarter highlights:

• In the third quarter of 2026, the national aggregate home price decreased 0.8% year over year; down 0.6% compared to the second quarter.
• The Greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded year over year declines of 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively, in Q3. Prices continue to stabilize on a quarterly basis.
• The Greater Montreal Area recorded an increase of 2.9% year over year; modest uptick of 0.5% over Q2.
• Regional markets across the Prairie provinces proved to be more stable, resilient this summer.
• Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. continue to weigh on consumer confidence, keeping many Canadian homebuyers on the sidelines.

TORONTO, Oct. 15, 2026 /CNW/ -- Despite a promising start to the summer, buoyed by momentum from a late spring market, sales activity flatlined across most major markets in the third quarter, as a fresh round of tariffs on Canadian goods imposed by the United States created greater economic uncertainty, which kept many buyers on the sidelines.

According to the Royal LePage^® House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada decreased a modest 0.8 per cent year over year to $810,000 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price dipped 0.6 per cent.

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¹ Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

"The Canadian housing market has spent the past three months treading water, with home prices largely flat and national sales volumes on track to finish 2026 slightly below even the sluggish pace of 2025," said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. "Autumn, the second-busiest season of the year, typically injects energy into the market. This year, economic uncertainty and concern that mortgage rates could move materially higher are keeping would-be buyers on the sidelines.

"With more homes to choose from and little pressure to act quickly, buyers can afford to wait – and uncertainty gives them a reason to. Yet, buyers have advantages that were hard to imagine during the pandemic-era frenzy. Prices have retreated from their peaks in most markets, and a larger selection of homes for sale gives buyers more time, more choice and greater negotiating power. After years in which scarce housing inventory forced buyers to compete fiercely, today's market offers room to be selective. The opportunity is there; the confidence to act remains elusive."

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 65 of the nation's largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.5 per cent year over year to $856,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.5 per cent to $571,900. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

Widespread anxiety and uncertainty over ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. continue to hamper confidence in the economy and, by extension, Canada's real estate market.

"Global economic turbulence and escalating trade tensions with our neighbours to the south continue to weigh on buyer psychology," said Soper. "Canadians' confidence in buying and selling real estate is obviously tightly linked to the perceived stability of the country's relationship with our closest trading partner. For many buyers, the hesitation is less about what they can afford today than how secure they feel about tomorrow. Buyers have more negotiating power, but little control over the forces shaping their confidence."

The U.S.-Canada trade dispute escalated sharply in late summer. On August 21st, negotiations between the two countries broke down, with no further talks scheduled. The following day, the U.S. announced a 50 per cent tariff on billions of dollars in Canadian goods, hitting a range of products including wine, furniture, dairy, cement and clothing, on top of existing levies on key export industries, like automotive, steel, aluminum and lumber. Ottawa responded with a series of counter-tariffs, prompting the U.S. to declare an import ban on certain Canadian products, including alcohol, motorcycles and select dairy items. While the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) remains in force until 2036, it has entered a heightened period of uncertainty and is now subject to an annual review.

Meanwhile, the federal government continues to take steps to reduce Canada's reliance on the U.S., diversify international trade opportunities and attract new investment in the country's infrastructure, energy and technology sectors. 

"Efforts to attract investment and strengthen trading relationships beyond the United States are encouraging steps toward a more resilient Canadian economy," noted Soper. "Diversification cannot immediately offset the damage from American trade actions, but it can reduce our vulnerability over time. For housing, the promise is straightforward: as Canadians gain confidence in the country's economic prospects, they gain confidence in their own financial security. Turning that promise into investment and jobs will help give buyers a reason to move forward."

Higher borrowing costs fail to coax buyers off the sidelines

For the last year, the Bank of Canada has left its target for the overnight lending rate unchanged at 2.25 per cent. With inflation under pressure, however, economists expect the central bank will begin raising rates again in the near future.

In its last scheduled rate announcement, the Canadian central bank said that its Governing Council is prepared to adjust monetary policy if necessary, and cautioned that the longer oil prices remain elevated, the greater the risk of additional inflationary pressure.² 

"The Bank of Canada faces a difficult balance: an economy that needs support, and war-driven cost pressures from abroad that will make inflation harder to contain," said Soper. "I expect the Bank to hold rates through the remainder of 2026, with an increase more likely in early 2027. The deciding factor will be whether those inflation pressures broaden and accelerate."

The Bank of Canada is set to make two final interest rate announcements this year, scheduled for October 28th and December 9th.

"The prospect of higher borrowing costs typically draws some buyers into the market sooner than they would otherwise act. Yet, even as rising bond yields put upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates, buyers remain hesitant. Low confidence is outweighing the urgency to lock in today's favourable borrowing costs."

Homeowners approaching renewal are also facing the prospect of higher borrowing costs. According to the Royal LePage 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey,³ 38 per cent of Canadians with a mortgage on their primary residence expect their monthly payment to increase upon renewal, and 35 per cent say they feel more anxious about their upcoming renewal than they did the last time they renewed. That figure rises in the country's most expensive housing markets, Vancouver (45%) and Toronto (39%), and anxiety is highest among homeowners who last renewed in 2021 or 2022, when rates were at record lows.

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² Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼%, September 2, 2026

³ As the last of the pandemic-era mortgages come up for renewal, one third of Canadian borrowers say they're anxious about their new payments, August 19, 2026

"It's no surprise that homeowners who locked in during the era of rock-bottom rates are the most uneasy about renewal," said Soper. "When the overnight rate was sitting at 0.25 per cent, most people understood those conditions were temporary. Even so, there's a big difference between expecting higher payments and actually seeing the new number on your renewal statement. The good news is that most of these borrowers qualified under a stress test at rates of five per cent or higher. In other words, they've already shown they can manage payments at today's levels."

Beyond mortgages, household debt pressures remain elevated. Non-mortgage debt reached $712.2 billion in Q2 2026, up 4.8 per cent year over year.⁴ While 90-day-plus delinquency rates on non-mortgage debt improved slightly from 1.79 per cent to 1.76 per cent quarter over quarter, they remain above last year's 1.70 per cent, signalling continued financial strain on some households.

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⁴ Non-Mortgage Delinquency Growth Slows in Second Quarter, but Ontario Homeowners Remain Under Pressure, Equifax, August 24, 2026

Political uncertainty adds another layer to buyer hesitation

Canada's busy political calendar is adding another layer of uncertainty to the housing outlook. Municipal elections underway across several provinces, the recent election of a minority government in Quebec, and a referendum on Alberta's future within Canada give families much to consider beyond borrowing costs and home prices.

"Elections can give buyers and sellers reason to pause while they assess what a change in government might mean for them," said Soper. "This fall, some of the questions facing voters go well beyond tax policy or housing programs. A home is a long-term commitment to a community. Uncertainty about the future of that community, or the province's place in Canada, can make buyers reluctant to put down roots."

Forecast

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward following a slower-than-expected third quarter.

"Price softening in the third quarter offset some of the gains made earlier in the year. We expect a modest pickup in sales activity through the remainder of the fall, although persistent trade uncertainty could delay that improvement," concluded Soper. "The conditions for recovery are in place. Canada's housing market is on a detour, not a derailment."

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) decreased 3.7 per cent year over year to $1,073,100 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA declined 2.6 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.8 per cent year over year to $1,364,400 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.1 per cent to $641,500 during the same period.

"As we move into the fall market, conditions in the GTA remain fairly balanced, although buyer hesitation is still present. Sentiment is improving slowly, but broader economic uncertainty continues to foster caution, resulting in a market that is noticeably softer than 2025 and 2024," said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty.

Zigelstein noted that a modest uptick in sales activity at the start of the summer gave way to modest declines beginning in August. Home prices overall continue to decline, but not evenly across property types.

"We're seeing a stark divide in buyer behaviour: family-oriented properties like detached homes, semis and townhouses remain in high demand, while activity in the condo segment has remained soft."

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased a modest 0.5 per cent year over year to $1,071,500 in the third quarter of 2026, yet declined 4.4 per cent on a quarterly basis. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.9 per cent year over year to $1,457,300, while the median price of a condominium remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.4 per cent to $647,400.

"We expect activity will improve modestly through the final months of the year and into next spring, as buyers respond to tighter inventory and adapt to current conditions," added Zigelstein. "As we look further ahead, we will continue to see a steady improvement in sales overall, though price growth will likely remain modest and uneven across the different property segments."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Greater Montreal Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 2.9 per cent year over year to $653,700 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased modestly by 0.5 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.6 per cent year over year to $764,600 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium rose 2.2 per cent to $498,800 during the same period.

According to Marc Lefrançois, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Tendance, the Montreal real estate market is going through a period of adjustment. "Sales slowed this summer across all areas of Greater Montreal and for all property types, while supply has continued to grow, particularly on the South Shore and the North Shore," he noted. "Prices, however, are still rising slightly year over year, with buyers simply being more selective and taking longer to make a decision."

The sales trend confirms this slowdown. After a strong start to the year, sales of single-family homes have slowed from one month to the next and, in August and September, were at a lower level than the same period last year. "Detached houses remain the best-performing segment and still favour sellers in most areas, but this advantage is gradually diminishing," said Lefrançois. "Multi-unit properties are also feeling the pressure, and even highly sought-after neighbourhoods such as Verdun are seeing falling sales volumes."

The condominium market, meanwhile, is regaining balance more quickly than any other segment. "In Ville-Marie, condo sales have fallen sharply, no longer sufficient to clear the available inventory," he added. "With condo supply levels among the highest ever recorded, prices in the city centre and the South-West are leveling off. Today, sellers must set the right price from the onset, as buyers are more selective and reluctant to make an offer on an overpriced property."

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 2.4 per cent year over year to $815,000 in the third quarter of 2026. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.3 per cent to $1,231,700, while the median price of a condominium rose 0.5 per cent to $590,900.

As for the outlook for year end, several external factors could weigh on buyer confidence. "The change of government in Quebec and the possibility of an increase in the key lending rate could prompt some buyers to hold back," said Lefrançois. "I expect prices to stabilize by the end of the year, with very modest gains at best and a slight dip in the condo market."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 4.0 per cent year over year to $1,148,100 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.4 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.6 per cent year over year to $1,617,200 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.1 per cent to $712,100 during the same period.

"The Vancouver housing market hasn't come to a total standstill, but it is operating well below normal levels, with transaction volumes consistently running 25 to 30 per cent below our 10-year average. Sales activity steadily declined over the summer months and into the start of fall, and while inventory tightened slightly, it hasn't been enough to keep prices from declining," said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. "It's created a stop-and-start environment, where momentum never really takes off and pricing strategy is everything. Some sellers are pulling properties off the market if they're not desperate to sell, while homes that are aggressively priced and well-presented can still attract multiple offers. It is undeniably a good time to be a buyer right now, but it's a challenging climate given the current state of the economy and anxiety over trade tensions."

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 5.0 per cent year over year to $1,314,000 in the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.7 per cent to $2,076,900, while the median price of a condominium declined 7.7 per cent to $739,100.

"Looking at the broader picture, heavy distractions like geopolitical tensions and B.C.'s upcoming election have effectively put major market moves on hold. What's also concerning is that the development industry has virtually ground to a halt: buyers are no longer lining up for pre-construction sales, and the investor class has gone quiet, some even shifting capital to Alberta and Washington State," noted Ryalls.

"We are optimistic that buyer confidence will return soon, but that's getting harder to maintain. While we may see a slight uptick in activity this fall, conditions are unlikely to transform in the short term."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will decrease 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa increased 2.5 per cent year over year to $796,900 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased modestly by 0.9 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.9 per cent year over year to $911,500 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium rose a modest 0.5 per cent to $410,600 during the same period.

"Over the last five years, it's felt like as soon as one crisis stabilizes, another pops up to take its place. This ongoing uncertainty continues to create instability, which is why overall activity has been much softer than expected this year, even as prices have remained fairly flat," said Jason Ralph, broker and owner, Royal LePage Team Realty. "While Ottawa's market is typically very stable and balanced, especially compared to the GTA, we saw a progressive softening in buyer demand this summer. We hoped to see a bit of a lift in September, but it didn't materialize."

Ralph added that the resale market, specifically in the $750,000 to $1-million range, has taken a hit, thanks to adoption of the new HST credit. First-time buyers are taking advantage of the program to purchase new pre-construction homes, leaving sellers with more competition for fewer buyers. 

"On the supply side, inventory remains at higher levels compared to the last few years, even though active listings have been declining month over month. Some of that decline isn't actually due to homes selling, but rather terminations and expirations as sellers have chosen to withdraw their listings from the market.

"Looking ahead, we do expect some of those sidelined buyers and sellers to re-enter the market in the coming months, particularly those who postponed their real estate decisions over the summer. That said, even with a fall boost in activity, overall transaction volumes will be similar or slightly below 2025 levels this year."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Quebec City

The aggregate price of a home in Quebec City increased 1.5 per cent year over year to $459,300 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.4 per cent. This is the second consecutive quarter that the region has recorded a drop in the aggregate price.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.3 per cent year over year to $486,400 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium rose 4.7 per cent to $348,200 during the same period.

According to Michèle Fournier, vice-president and real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec, the third quarter of 2026 was marked by a notable slowdown in buyer interest. "From July to mid-September, new listings were coming onto the market with far less competition and without the sense of urgency seen in recent years," she noted. "This is a marked contrast to the exceptional strength the region has experienced over the past two years."

Business has picked up slightly since the start of the new school year, but it is demanding more effort from real estate professionals. "Buyers are being more cautious and want to view more properties before making a decision. New listings are attracting fewer viewing appointments when they first come onto the market," noted Fournier.

This caution could be explained, in particular, by the high proportion of civil servants in the region, who are concerned about the prospect of cuts in government spending, as well as by the continuing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. "On the sellers' side, a slight rise in requests for valuations suggests a rise in listings are on the way, although volumes have not yet reached high levels," added Fournier.

For the fall season, Fournier anticipates a subdued market. "We expect a slight uptick in activity compared to the summer, but not a sharp rise. Buyers will negotiate more over properties requiring work, the aggressive bidding wars we were used to will become less common, and it will take more effort to close deals," she explained.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Calgary

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary remained essentially flat year over year in the third quarter of 2026, decreasing just 0.5 per cent to $690,400. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 0.7 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home was also flat, decreasing just 0.1 per cent year over year to $807,300 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.8 per cent to $255,800 during the same period.

"Calgary's summer market held steady overall, with a balanced single-family segment and significant oversupply in the condominium market," said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. "Prices have held relatively flat, with only a slight dip compared to last year. Slower levels of immigration and inter-provincial migration to Alberta are weighing on demand, alongside tariff and economic uncertainty.

"On the condominium side, a wave of purpose-built rentals and commercial conversions came to market during the post-pandemic immigration surge. These units are now giving would-be buyers an affordable rental option, particularly in the inner city."

Lyall noted that inventory and new listings have declined across all property types except condominiums. Notably, the west side of the city remains the only area seeing price gains as its schools, limited new community expansion opportunities, and proximity to Kananaskis and the mountains draw heavier competition among buyers.

"With the possibility of a Bank of Canada rate hike before year-end, many homeowners are anticipating higher borrowing costs, and are locking in rate holds and renewing their mortgages early. It's a sign that people are thinking carefully about their household budgets and want some certainty in an otherwise unpredictable environment," added Lyall. "Looking ahead, we expect current market conditions to carry into next year. Changes to federal immigration policy or the foreign buyer ban could shift that outlook, as could interest rates and ongoing uncertainty south of the border."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Edmonton

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton increased a modest 0.7 per cent year over year to $479,500 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 0.6 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased slightly by 0.5 per cent year over year to $529,600 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium rose 0.6 per cent to $207,700 during the same period.

"Edmonton entered the summer with solid momentum, but activity softened through the remainder of the season," said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. "Several factors contributed to the slowdown, including slower in-migration, flooding in the region and a lower sense of urgency among buyers. Inventory has grown compared to last year, and while buyers are not overwhelmed with choice, they now have more options, which has brought Edmonton into more balanced market territory."

Shearer noted that prices have remained relatively stable, with little change from last year or the previous quarter. With more homes available and less pressure to act quickly, buyers have been able to take their time and weigh their options.

"Heading into the fall, we expect the market to continue moving toward balance, with prices holding firm or easing slightly," added Shearer. "In the first half of 2027, we anticipate steadier sales activity and a healthier balance between buyers and sellers. Several major development projects are also expected, which could help support job growth and renewed migration to the region. If that materializes, it would provide a solid foundation for demand heading into the spring market."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax remained essentially flat, increasing just 0.5 per cent year over year to $526,500 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased modestly by 0.4 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased just 0.1 per cent year over year to $598,300 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 0.7 per cent to $406,700 during the same period.

"Atlantic Canada's summer market moved at a slower pace than expected, as many buyers held off on transacting," said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. "In Halifax, sales are on par with 2015 levels, despite the population growing roughly 20 per cent since then. Affordability and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on the market, as buyers face higher housing, inflation and borrowing costs compared to recent years. Changes to immigration policy, including limits on international students, are also softening demand."

Honsberger noted that inventory continued to grow through the third quarter, though more slowly than expected. Meanwhile, prices in Halifax have remained stable.

"This fall, we expect more of the same, with cautious buyers, subdued sales and prices potentially flattening as some sellers adjust their expectations," added Honsberger. "We anticipate the usual seasonal uptick heading into 2027, with activity building at a steady pace. Much will depend on tariffs and inflation, but any easing in those pressures could help bring more buyers back into the market in the spring."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Winnipeg

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 2.2 per cent year over year to $420,800 in the third quarter of 2026. However, on a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 2.0 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.4 per cent year over year to $461,500 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 2.1 per cent to $279,100 during the same period.

"Winnipeg's summer market followed a familiar seasonal pattern, with activity peaking in June before slowing notably through July and August," said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. "As the pace of activity eased, prices softened and buyers benefited from more choice and less competition. Sales were down compared to last year's strong pace, but overall market conditions remain healthy and relatively balanced."

Froese noted that inventory has improved but the market remains far from saturated. Following a record year for housing starts in 2025, a number of new projects have come to market, supported by efforts to encourage new development and infill.

"First-time buyers are an important driver of the market right now, taking advantage of improved affordability and greater selection," added Froese. "Rising borrowing costs do not appear to be keeping buyers on the sidelines, although lending rates remain a concern for homeowners approaching a mortgage renewal. At the same time, lower levels of immigration have softened demand in the rental market. Winnipeg's employment and population fundamentals remain healthy, but the pace of growth has moderated from the levels we've seen in recent years.

"Looking ahead, I expect the fall market to follow a fairly typical seasonal pattern, with a short burst of activity before the snow arrives. We may see some further modest price softening through the end of the year, before the market begins to pick up again in early spring."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

Regina

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 0.9 per cent year over year to $400,000 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased 1.3 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased just 0.5 per cent year over year to $440,100 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.1 per cent to $234,000 during the same period.

"Activity in Regina has picked up in recent months, as buyers who missed out earlier in the year returned to the market," said Chad Ehman, sales representative, Royal LePage Next Level. "Aside from a brief slowdown ahead of the back-to-school season, the summer market unfolded largely as anticipated. Supply remains tight, but conditions have eased compared to earlier in the year, giving buyers more choice and contributing to some modest price softening in recent months."

According to Ehman, more homeowners are putting their properties on the market, including many retirees selling larger, older detached homes in favour of lower-maintenance living. New development is also gaining momentum, as builders return to breaking ground and rebates help attract buyers to new construction units.

"With rental prices climbing, more renters are considering home ownership, and first-time buyers are joining newcomers and retirees as key sources of demand," said Ehman. "Regina's relative affordability continues to support activity, meaning interest rate movements haven't had as much influence on buyers' timing as they have in more expensive markets.

"Looking ahead, I expect the fall market to remain balanced and steady, with healthy demand and no dramatic swings in pricing."

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward to reflect current market conditions.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026

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About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 65 of the nation's largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from partner company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country's leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 650 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage^® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women's shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for more than 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services^® company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbolTSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.

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SOURCE Royal LePage Real Estate Services

For further information, please contact: Charmaine de Silva, Burson on behalf of Royal LePage, [email protected]; (604)-360-2328