Canadian Housing Starts Trend Steady in October

OTTAWA, Nov. 8, 2017 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 216,770 units in October 2017, compared to 215,153 units in September 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

October Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Government of Canada (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"The trend in housing starts essentially held steady in October following a decrease in September," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Nevertheless, new home construction remains very strong in 2017, as the seasonally adjusted number of starts has been above 200,000 units in nine of ten months so far this year."

Monthly Highlights

New Brunswick
After four years of declining construction activity, population growth has helped push New Brunswick's housing starts up 28% year-to-date. Starts have been strong across the province, with much of the activity concentrated in the Moncton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Multifamily starts have been particularly strong in the hub city, up 49% year-to-date.

Montréal
In the Montréal area, this past month saw the highest level ever recorded of residential construction for the month of October, with close to 3,500 housing units started—half of them on the Island of Montréal. Once again in 2017, condominium and rental housing construction has driven the growth. The decrease in inventories of completed and unsold condominiums and the low vacancy rates in newer rental buildings seem to have prompted developers to ramp up on construction projects this year.

Ottawa
Low-rise housing starts trended higher in October supported by improved employment and earnings this year. This increase was just enough to offset the effect of the sharp decline in apartment starts this month. To October, housing starts were 27% higher than their level in 2016. The rise in starts so far this year was mostly driven by a doubling in apartment starts following three years of declining high-rise construction in the CMA as the number of completed and unsold condominiums has trended down considerably since peaking in mid-2016.

Thunder Bay
October housing starts in Thunder Bay trended at their highest level in three years due primarily to a continued increase in the trend for multiples starts. Downsizing senior households, international post-secondary students and in-migrants to the CMA drawn in by an improving service sector have all been supportive of apartment starts this year. Conversely, the trend for single detached starts has remained mostly flat owing to more affordable alternatives in the resale market.

Toronto
Total housing starts in the CMA trended lower in October 2017, with the most pronounced declines occurring in single-detached home and apartment starts. Lower trending single-detached home starts are reflective of fewer sales of pre-construction units through 2016 and spring of 2017. Sales of pre-construction condominium apartment units have been brisk over the past couple of years and these units continue to start construction with varying levels of intensity each month.

London
Total housing starts in the London CMA were down significantly in October 2017 compared to October 2016, due to a high number of apartments started last October. However, single-detached starts in London CMA posted the highest levels for the month of October since 2007. Strong population growth and a low supply of resale home listings have strengthened demand for new single-detached homes – encouraging builders to continue to keep single-detached starts elevated over recent months.

Windsor
Multi-unit housing starts in the Windsor CMA posted the highest levels for the month of October since 2004, while single-detached starts trended lower for a second consecutive month. Slightly lower demand in the resale market evidenced by a declining sales-to-new listings ratio has discouraged builders from keeping single-detached starts as high as they were early in the summer. Also, Windsor's growing population of seniors has strengthened demand for multi-unit starts, as seniors have a higher propensity to downsize to apartment units and semi-detached homes as they age.

Calgary
While labour market conditions and housing demand have improved this year, the trend in total housing starts has been slowing down over the last couple of months. A rise in active listings in the competing resale market combined with elevated inventories in the new home market, especially for apartments, have impacted new home construction. Despite the decline in the trend, total actual housing starts to the end of October were still up 24% compared to the same period a year earlier.

Vancouver
Starts trended higher in the Vancouver CMA in October, with seasonally adjusted monthly starts reaching a 12-month high. The increase was primarily driven by a significant uptick in condominium apartment starts in Burnaby, Coquitlam and Surrey, where the demand is strong for more affordable multi-family dwellings. Year-to-date starts remain below 2016 levels, mostly due to fewer projects getting underway in the City of Vancouver and on the North Shore this year.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 222,771 units in October, up from 219,293 units in September. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 2.5 per cent in October to 205,935 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 12.5 per cent to 149,593 units in October. Single-detached urban starts decreased by 17.1 per cent, to 56,342 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,836 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		October 2016	October 2017	%	October 2016	October 2017	%	October 2016	October 2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		71	51	-28	38	46	21	109	97	-11
P.E.I.		10	35	250	4	21	425	14	56	300
N.S.		93	117	26	227	97	-57	320	214	-33
N.B.		54	71	31	93	174	87	147	245	67
Atlantic		228	274	20	362	338	-7	590	612	4
Qc		641	576	-10	2,116	4,028	90	2,757	4,604	67
Ont.		2,670	2,026	-24	4,650	3,136	-33	7,320	5,162	-29
Man.		219	215	-2	159	164	3	378	379	0
Sask.		180	166	-8	160	281	76	340	447	31
Alta.		927	1,057	14	1,137	1,317	16	2,064	2,374	15
Prairies		1,326	1,438	8	1,456	1,762	21	2,782	3,200	15
B.C.		887	830	-6	1,245	3,681	196	2,132	4,511	112
Canada (10,000+)		5,752	5,144	-11	9,829	12,945	32	15,581	18,089	16
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		37	25	-32	143	95	-34	180	120	-33
Barrie		70	75	7	50	50	-	120	125	4
Belleville		**	37	##	**	23	##	**	60	##
Brantford		11	12	9	12	0	-100	23	12	-48
Calgary		334	385	15	293	568	94	627	953	52
Edmonton		413	413	-	763	397	-48	1,176	810	-31
Greater Sudbury		16	9	-44	16	4	-75	32	13	-59
Guelph		32	17	-47	68	24	-65	100	41	-59
Halifax		43	76	77	193	70	-64	236	146	-38
Hamilton		73	51	-30	193	90	-53	266	141	-47
Kelowna		89	70	-21	115	101	-12	204	171	-16
Kingston		35	14	-60	16	14	-13	51	28	-45
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		159	80	-50	103	103	-	262	183	-30
Lethbridge		**	43	##	**	79	##	**	122	##
London		117	144	23	296	42	-86	413	186	-55
Moncton		12	30	150	47	140	198	59	170	188
Montréal		248	248	-	1,029	3,180	209	1,277	3,428	168
Oshawa		75	61	-19	200	258	29	275	319	16
Ottawa-Gatineau		249	308	24	691	318	-54	940	626	-33
Gatineau		45	55	22	291	42	-86	336	97	-71
Ottawa		204	253	24	400	276	-31	604	529	-12
Peterborough		20	22	10	16	4	-75	36	26	-28
Québec		110	56	-49	324	273	-16	434	329	-24
Regina		76	48	-37	71	101	42	147	149	1
Saguenay		11	25	127	46	27	-41	57	52	-9
St. Catharines-Niagara		123	77	-37	45	198	340	168	275	64
Saint John		17	14	-18	1	4	300	18	18	-
St. John's		60	37	-38	35	42	20	95	79	-17
Saskatoon		80	92	15	62	157	153	142	249	75
Sherbrooke		34	22	-35	82	91	11	116	113	-3
Thunder Bay		16	12	-25	0	30	##	16	42	163
Toronto		1,215	684	-44	2,989	1,754	-41	4,204	2,438	-42
Trois-Rivières		18	20	11	12	29	142	30	49	63
Vancouver		415	367	-12	598	2,532	323	1,013	2,899	186
Victoria		77	76	-1	136	705	418	213	781	267
Windsor		63	52	-17	17	54	218	80	106	33
Winnipeg		198	159	-20	146	127	-13	344	286	-17
Total		4,546	3,861	-15	8,808	11,684	33	13,354	15,545	16

Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.

Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		September 2017	October 2017	%	September 2017	October 2017	%	September 2017	October 2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		598	517	-14	305	514	69	903	1,031	14
P.E.I.		375	495	32	612	252	-59	987	747	-24
N.S.		1,276	1,256	-2	3,515	1,177	-67	4,791	2,433	-49
N.B.		749	809	8	2,508	2,169	-14	3,257	2,978	-9
Qc		7,252	6,332	-13	34,500	43,883	27	41,752	50,215	20
Ont.		29,080	21,073	-28	46,858	36,485	-22	75,938	57,558	-24
Man.		3,027	2,402	-21	2,520	1,968	-22	5,547	4,370	-21
Sask.		1,845	1,888	2	1,356	3,372	149	3,201	5,260	64
Alta.		13,290	12,085	-9	13,884	15,507	12	27,174	27,592	2
B.C.		10,468	9,485	-9	26,932	44,266	64	37,400	53,751	44
Canada (10,000+)		67,960	56,342	-17	132,990	149,593	12	200,950	205,935	2
Canada (All Areas)		81,799	69,327	-15	137,492	153,443	12	219,293	222,771	2
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		368	255	-31	1,608	1,140	-29	1,976	1,395	-29
Barrie		501	790	58	192	600	213	693	1,390	101
Belleville		690	396	-43	120	276	130	810	672	-17
Brantford		336	145	-57	0	0	-	336	145	-57
Calgary		4,925	4,490	-9	5,388	6,816	27	10,313	11,306	10
Edmonton		5,007	4,471	-11	7,572	4,764	-37	12,579	9,235	-27
Greater Sudbury		132	99	-25	72	48	-33	204	147	-28
Guelph		191	236	24	456	288	-37	647	524	-19
Halifax		672	877	31	3,360	840	-75	4,032	1,717	-57
Hamilton		787	742	-6	936	1,080	15	1,723	1,822	6
Kelowna		917	736	-20	4,056	1,212	-70	4,973	1,948	-61
Kingston		361	219	-39	564	168	-70	925	387	-58
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		962	839	-13	4,620	1,236	-73	5,582	2,075	-63
Lethbridge		458	452	-1	240	948	295	698	1,400	101
London		1,944	1,631	-16	2,184	504	-77	4,128	2,135	-48
Moncton		341	354	4	1,416	1,680	19	1,757	2,034	16
Montréal		3,294	2,654	-19	32,714	38,222	17	36,008	40,876	14
Oshawa		1,046	533	-49	4,932	3,096	-37	5,978	3,629	-39
Ottawa-Gatineau		3,077	3,070	0	5,868	3,816	-35	8,945	6,886	-23
Gatineau		535	423	-21	672	504	-25	1,207	927	-23
Ottawa		2,542	2,647	4	5,196	3,312	-36	7,738	5,959	-23
Peterborough		335	253	-24	96	48	-50	431	301	-30
Québec		678	774	14	10,428	3,276	-69	11,106	4,050	-64
Regina		658	534	-19	1,152	1,212	5	1,810	1,746	-4
Saguenay		191	264	38	96	324	238	287	588	105
St. Catharines-Niagara		942	842	-11	1,020	2,376	133	1,962	3,218	64
Saint John		169	178	5	756	48	-94	925	226	-76
St. John's		458	368	-20	180	504	180	638	872	37
Saskatoon		968	1,121	16	72	1,884	##	1,040	3,005	189
Sherbrooke		189	196	4	492	1,092	122	681	1,288	89
Thunder Bay		141	112	-21	288	360	25	429	472	10
Toronto		12,499	7,001	-44	22,800	21,048	-8	35,299	28,049	-21
Trois-Rivières		234	192	-18	180	348	93	414	540	30
Vancouver		5,252	4,466	-15	12,864	30,384	136	18,116	34,850	92
Victoria		667	875	31	6,456	8,460	31	7,123	9,335	31
Windsor		710	656	-8	288	648	125	998	1,304	31
Winnipeg		2,742	1,792	-35	2,268	1,524	-33	5,010	3,316	-34

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

For English inquires: Angelina Ritacco, 416-218-3320, [email protected]; For French inquires: Audrey-Anne Coulombe, 613-748-2573, [email protected]; Additional data is available upon request.

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