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Canadian housing starts trend held steady in January Français


News provided by

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Feb 08, 2019, 08:13 ET

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OTTAWA, Feb. 8, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 208,131 units in January 2019, compared to 207,171 units in December 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Continue Reading
Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)
Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)
Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)
Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"After recent declines, the national trend in housing starts held steady in January and remained above historical average," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "While single-detached starts continued to trend lower in January, this was offset by an uptick in the trend for multi-unit dwellings in urban centres.

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
The trend measure for housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) held steady in January 2019 after trending lower in the second half of 2018. The majority of January's starts were concentrated in the apartment condominium segment in the cities of Vancouver and Burnaby, which together accounted for over half of new construction activity for the month.

Kelowna
Total housing starts trended sharply upward in Kelowna for January. Condominium units in the city of Kelowna were the largest share of the uptick with larger projects breaking ground in the first month of 2019. This continued a trend of elevated multi-family construction in the region. However, single detached units also increased slightly.

Lethbridge
Total starts in Lethbridge trended higher in January 2019 compared to the previous month mainly due to the increase in single-detached starts. Multi-family starts declined marginally as the decrease in both row and apartment starts was partially offset by the increase in semi-detached starts.

Saskatoon
The trend measure of total housing starts edged higher in the first month of 2019. Nonetheless, actual total housing starts in January were down 15%, compared to January 2018. The reduction in building activity was entirely due to a sharp decline in multi-family construction while single-detached starts began the year on stronger footing.

Toronto
Toronto CMA total housing starts trend was unchanged from the previous month. Single and semi-detached homes along with condominium apartment starts trended lower. Row starts, conversely, trended significantly higher as strong pre-construction sales towards the latter part of 2018 converted into housing starts. Rising borrowing costs kept pre-construction sales of new homes low, particularly low-rise throughout 2018.  As a result, expect to see even fewer units breaking ground during 2019.

London
Total housing starts in London CMA trended higher due to increased apartment construction while single detached and rows homes starts continuing their downward trend. An increasing number of completed but unsold new single-detached homes resulted in fewer single-detached starts; as builders were able to satisfy demand from existing inventories.

Ottawa
Ottawa housing starts trended lower for all dwelling types in the first month of 2019. Starts this January marked the lowest for the month in over two decades. The number of units under construction in January was historically high, leaving homebuilders with fewer resources to commit to new construction.

Gatineau
In January 2019, housing starts trended lower for the second month in a row for the Gatineau area. However, the number of new rental housing units remains at a high level, as the aging of the population and the low vacancy rate continue to stimulate starts for this type.

Québec CMA
Housing starts activity started off slowly in the Québec CMA, as a result of a decrease in multi-unit segment. Despite this slowdown in January, multi-unit—especially rental—housing construction should stay relatively strong this year. Activity in this market segment is being stimulated in particular by migration and the aging of the population.

New Brunswick
In January 2019, New Brunswick's total housing starts were 33% higher compared to a year ago. The increase was due to multiple-unit starts, which were more than double the number observed in January 2018. On the other hand, construction of single-detached housing has been on a downward trend and the number of starts in January was the lowest for the month in 20 years.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 207,968 units in January, down from 213,630 units in December. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 2.1% in January to 190,912 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 0.7% to 146,353 units in January while single-detached urban starts decreased by 10.4% to 44,559 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,056 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram.


Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over


Single-Detached

All Others

Total


January
2018

January
2019

%

January
2018

January
2019

%

January
2018

January
2019

%

Provinces (10,000+)










N.-L.

30

17

-43

19

4

-79

49

21

-57

P.E.I.   

8

4

-50

4

45

##

12

49

308

N.S.   

135

97

-28

140

157

12

275

254

-8

N.B.   

22

12

-45

17

40

135

39

52

33

Atlantic

195

130

-33

180

246

37

375

376

0

Qc

176

125

-29

1,346

1,654

23

1,522

1,779

17

Ont.   

1,416

932

-34

4,211

4,081

-3

5,627

5,013

-11

Man.   

153

126

-18

140

303

116

293

429

46

Sask.   

74

65

-12

331

68

-79

405

133

-67

Alta.   

773

598

-23

868

1,070

23

1,641

1,668

2

Prairies

1,000

789

-21

1,339

1,441

8

2,339

2,230

-5

B.C.   

747

494

-34

2,512

2,677

7

3,259

3,171

-3

Canada (10,000+)

3,534

2,470

-30

9,588

10,099

5

13,122

12,569

-4

Metropolitan Areas










Abbotsford-Mission

27

25

-7

20

32

60

47

57

21

Barrie

23

13

-43

68

0

-100

91

13

-86

Belleville

16

15

-6

58

0

-100

74

15

-80

Brantford

35

5

-86

2

0

-100

37

5

-86

Calgary

325

269

-17

326

431

32

651

700

8

Edmonton

298

211

-29

421

579

38

719

790

10

Greater Sudbury

2

1

-50

0

2

##

2

3

50

Guelph

3

11

267

200

19

-91

203

30

-85

Halifax

51

57

12

104

141

36

155

198

28

Hamilton

42

30

-29

136

302

122

178

332

87

Kelowna

36

49

36

51

268

425

87

317

264

Kingston

12

25

108

12

147

##

24

172

##

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

132

107

-19

567

85

-85

699

192

-73

Lethbridge

28

40

43

12

7

-42

40

47

18

London

59

43

-27

8

226

##

67

269

301

Moncton

6

0

-100

0

2

##

6

2

-67

Montréal

72

64

-11

713

1,358

90

785

1,422

81

Oshawa

56

22

-61

64

19

-70

120

41

-66

Ottawa-Gatineau

138

78

-43

515

171

-67

653

249

-62

Gatineau

18

2

-89

212

62

-71

230

64

-72

Ottawa

120

76

-37

303

109

-64

423

185

-56

Peterborough

25

6

-76

0

0

-

25

6

-76

Québec

22

13

-41

221

94

-57

243

107

-56

Regina

32

18

-44

272

35

-87

304

53

-83

Saguenay

5

2

-60

0

0

-

5

2

-60

St. Catharines-Niagara

47

62

32

66

54

-18

113

116

3

Saint John

7

5

-29

0

37

##

7

42

##

St. John's

27

17

-37

10

2

-80

37

19

-49

Saskatoon

37

44

19

54

33

-39

91

77

-15

Sherbrooke

5

3

-40

18

0

-100

23

3

-87

Thunder Bay

1

0

-100

0

0

-

1

0

-100

Toronto

543

243

-55

2,605

2,942

13

3,148

3,185

1

Trois-Rivières

1

1

-

5

18

260

6

19

217

Vancouver

428

200

-53

2,171

1,867

-14

2,599

2,067

-20

Victoria

55

32

-42

45

202

349

100

234

134

Windsor

19

24

26

7

12

71

26

36

38

Winnipeg

132

113

-14

90

294

227

222

407

83

Total

2,747

1,848

-33

8,841

9,379

6

11,588

11,227

-3


Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

## not calculable / extreme value


Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)


Single-Detached

All Others

Total


December
2018

January
2019

%

December
2018

January
2019

%

December
2018

January
2019

%

Provinces (10,000+)










N.L.

394

390

-1

223

50

-78

617

440

-29

P.E.I.   

389

103

-74

912

540

-41

1,301

643

-51

N.S.   

1,383

1,667

21

3,218

1,936

-40

4,601

3,603

-22

N.B.   

628

463

-26

1,805

917

-49

2,433

1,380

-43

Qc  

5,983

4,746

-21

38,706

36,889

-5

44,689

41,635

-7

Ont.   

18,850

16,558

-12

48,880

55,774

14

67,730

72,332

7

Man.   

2,137

1,986

-7

3,564

3,636

2

5,701

5,622

-1

Sask.   

1,341

1,265

-6

444

816

84

1,785

2,081

17

Alta.   

8,926

9,364

5

9,094

13,304

46

18,020

22,668

26

B.C.   

9,721

8,017

-18

38,452

32,491

-16

48,173

40,508

-16

Canada (10,000+)

49,752

44,559

-10

145,298

146,353

1

195,050

190,912

-2

Canada (All Areas)

63,459

56,984

-10

150,169

150,985

1

213,630

207,968

-3

Metropolitan Areas










Abbotsford-Mission

474

460

-3

3,096

384

-88

3,570

844

-76

Barrie

251

392

56

0

0

-

251

392

56

Belleville

327

401

23

48

0

-100

375

401

7

Brantford

181

145

-20

744

0

-100

925

145

-84

Calgary

2,915

3,770

29

3,684

5,172

40

6,599

8,942

36

Edmonton

4,051

3,785

-7

3,672

6,948

89

7,723

10,733

39

Greater Sudbury

116

92

-21

48

24

-50

164

116

-29

Guelph

198

196

-1

1,836

228

-88

2,034

424

-79

Halifax

646

1,000

55

2,844

1,692

-41

3,490

2,692

-23

Hamilton

183

467

155

1,428

3,624

154

1,611

4,091

154

Kelowna

730

1,024

40

2,628

3,216

22

3,358

4,240

26

Kingston

301

562

87

2,556

1,764

-31

2,857

2,326

-19

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

1,042

1,500

44

900

1,020

13

1,942

2,520

30

Lethbridge

321

537

67

144

84

-42

465

621

34

London

1,401

1,105

-21

396

2,712

##

1,797

3,817

112

Moncton

158

3

-98

1,260

24

-98

1,418

27

-98

Montréal

2,267

2,316

2

32,735

17,411

-47

35,002

19,727

-44

Oshawa

867

564

-35

648

228

-65

1,515

792

-48

Ottawa-Gatineau

2,603

1,841

-29

3,576

2,052

-43

6,179

3,893

-37

Gatineau

528

51

-90

480

744

55

1,008

795

-21

Ottawa

2,075

1,790

-14

3,096

1,308

-58

5,171

3,098

-40

Peterborough

265

132

-50

156

0

-100

421

132

-69

Québec

490

414

-16

7,824

1,128

-86

8,314

1,542

-81

Regina

343

276

-20

204

420

106

547

696

27

Saguenay

166

124

-25

372

0

-100

538

124

-77

St. Catharines-Niagara

761

1,077

42

1,740

648

-63

2,501

1,725

-31

Saint John

242

124

-49

12

444

##

254

568

124

St. John's

292

354

21

180

24

-87

472

378

-20

Saskatoon

868

916

6

168

396

136

1,036

1,312

27

Sherbrooke

313

132

-58

492

0

-100

805

132

-84

Thunder Bay

166

5

-97

0

0

-

166

5

-97

Toronto

5,379

3,925

-27

31,848

35,304

11

37,227

39,229

5

Trois-Rivières

183

96

-48

984

216

-78

1,167

312

-73

Vancouver

5,418

3,009

-44

19,644

22,404

14

25,062

25,413

1

Victoria

666

488

-27

8,784

2,424

-72

9,450

2,912

-69

Windsor

680

612

-10

96

144

50

776

756

-3

Winnipeg

1,836

1,770

-4

2,520

3,528

40

4,356

5,298

22











Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

Related Links

www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

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