OTTAWA, Nov. 28, 2014 /CNW/ - Canadian retailers ringing up sales on Black Friday can expect to see sales growth this year, according to the Conference Board of Canada's Canadian Industrial Profile: Autumn 2014. A weaker dollar is also discouraging Canadians from travelling to the U.S. in search of bargains, helping to keep retail spending closer to home. Overall, retail sales are expected to rise by 2.9 per cent, reaching $89 billion in 2014.
"Canadians have more disposable income this year thanks to better job prospects, and a weaker loonie will help drive retail spending in Canada," said Michael Burt, Director, Forcasting and Analysis. "But consumers are still cautious as many are carrying high levels of debt and increasing their rate of saving." As a result, the overall impact is that volume sales are expected to rise around 2 per cent annually over the next four years.
A similar story is unfolding for the wholesale trade industry as low interest rates and stronger growth in real disposable income are expected to support discretionary spending at retail and wholesale outlets. On the other hand, expected rising interest rates will limit household spending in the medium term, especially for items that require financing. International trade and business investment, particularly in machinery and equipment, will be the major drivers of industry sales. Overall, wholesale trade growth is also expected to reach around 2 per cent annually after 2016—a slower pace than in 2014 and 2015.
Growing demand for transportation and warehousing services is being driven by higher manufacturing production and international trade. As such, industry output is forecast to increase this year, and should continue to advance due to increased trade demand from foreign markets.
The Canadian Industrial Profile Service is part of The Conference Board of Canada's Industrial Economic Trends research. In all, outlooks for 23 industries are completed each year. The Autumn 2014 edition includes outlooks for Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade, Transportation and Warehousing, Food Services, Food and Beverage, and Accommodation.
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SOURCE: Conference Board of Canada
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