American Express Business Travel Announces 2010 Global Business Travel
Forecast
- Business travel growth expected to be up 15 per cent in Canada -
- Companies Changing Mindset in "New Normal" of Business Travel;
Mobile and Telepresence Supporting new ROI of Business Travel Behaviour -
MARKHAM, ON,
Utilizing telepresence and teleconference technologies, the 2010 Forecast was presented during a virtual press event connecting people face-to-face from New York, NY, Brighton, UK and
"As the world begins to show signs of emerging from the recession, businesses are adapting to a fundamental shift in thinking focused on proving the value of travel and every employee connection," said Hervé Sedky, vice president and general manager, American Express Business Travel. "Heading into 2010, companies will need to consider the impact of these changes in mindset, particularly as projected rate increases in key travel categories gain momentum."
Global Business Travel Forecast
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A prolonged period of weak demand in the travel industry depressed prices across travel categories in 2009, most notably in hotel, which as an industry cannot reduce capacity as well as airlines and car rental companies. Following this weakened demand in 2009, American Express Business Travel expects a pent up need for travel and meetings to be unleashed in early 2010. Fuel prices, along with sustained signs of a restarting economy, could also generate slight up-ticks in travel category prices worldwide, particularly in Asia Pacific next year.
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Global - 2010 Forecast
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Region Airfares Hotel Rates
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Domestic/ International/
Short-Haul Long-Haul
(Economy (Business
Class) Class) Mid-Range Upper-Range
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North America 2% to 7% 1% to 6% (-4%) to (-1%) (-6)% to (-3%)
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Europe 0% to 2% 5% to 7% (-2%) to 2.5% (-2.5%) to 2%
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Latin America (-3)% to 2% (-1)% to 2% (-2)% to 2% (-6)% to 0%
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Asia-Pacific 3% to 8% 1% to 6% 1% to 6% 1% to 6%
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Global 0% to 5% 1% to 6% (-3%) to 2% (-4%) to 1%
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"Considering airfare, hotel, and ground transportation, we expect the average domestic trip to increase 1.2 per cent, or
Regional Highlights
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Overall, business travel growth is predicted to be up one per cent for the US and 15 per cent for
Hotel rates are expected to remain on the decline in
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North America - 2010 Forecast
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Region Airfares Hotel Rates Car Rental
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Interna-
Domestic/ tional/
Short-Haul Long-Haul
(Economy (Business
Class) Class) Mid-Range Upper-Range
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United
States 2% to 7% 3% to 8% (-4)% to (-1)% (-6)% to (-3)% (-1% to 2%)
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Canada 2% to 6% 0% to 5% (-3)% to (-1)% (-4)% to (-2)% (-1% to 2%)
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North
America 2% to 7% 1% to 6% (-4%) to (-1%) (-6%) to (-3%) (-1%) to 2%
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As companies looked for ways to curb travel costs, many companies in
While hotel rate changes will likely vary by country, overall, it is expected that rates will only increase modestly at best in
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Europe - 2010 Forecast
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Region Airfares Hotel Rates Car Rental
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Interna-
Domestic/ tional/
Short-Haul Long-Haul
(Economy (Business
Class) Class) Mid-Range Upper-Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
France 0% to 2% 4% to 6% 0% to 3% 0% to 3% (-4%) to 0%
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Germany 0% to 2% 6% to 8% (-0.5%) to 3% (-0.5%) to 3% (-4%) to 0%
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Sweden 1% to 3% 7% to 9% (-1%) to 4% (-2%) to 2% (-4%) to 0%
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UK 0% to 2% 5% to 7% (-3%) to 4% (-4%) to 2.5% (-4%) to 0%
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Europe 0% to 2% 5% to 7% (-2%) to 2.5% (-2.5%) to 2% (-4%) to 0%
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Latin America - Air/Hotel Forecast and Trends
In Latin America there has been upward pressure on rates as some carriers proactively reduced the number and size of aircrafts servicing some routes and consolidated others. Increases that may have been possible through these measures are challenged, though, as capacity at alternative, less expensive airports increased, online travel agencies entered the market, and business travellers increased usage of car rental or bus. This will likely continue to have an impact in 2010, with projected airfare changes ranging from negative three per cent up to two per cent. Hotel rates are expected to continue to decline, similar to
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Latin America - 2010 Forecast
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Region Airfares Hotel Rates
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic/ International/
Short-Haul Long-Haul
(Economy (Business
Class) Class) Mid-Range Upper-Range
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Argentina 3% to 8% (0%) to 2% (-4%) to (-2%) (-7%) to (-2%)
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Brazil (-3%) to 1% (-1%) to 2% 0% to 2% (-2%) to 0%
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Chile (-1%) to 3% (-1%) to 3% (-3%) to (-1%) (-4%) to (-1%)
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Mexico (-3%) to 0% (-2%) to 1% 0% to 2% (-6%) to 0%
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Latin America (-3%) to 2% (-1%) to 2% (-2%) to 2% (-6%) to 0%
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Asia Pacific - Air/Hotel Forecast and Trends
After a seven per cent reduction in business travel in 2009 in the Asia Pacific region, growth for the major countries serviced by American Express in Asia Pacific is expected to be six per cent in 2010 overall as much of the region escapes the protracted recession in North American and
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Asia-Pacific - 2010 Forecast
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Region Airfares Hotel Rates
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic/ International/
Short-Haul Long-Haul
(Economy (Business
Class) Class) Mid-Range Upper-Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Australia 1% to 6% 2% to 7% 1% to 6% 0% to 5%
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China 3% to 8% 2% to 7% 1% to 6% 1% to 6%
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Hong Kong 2% to 7% 2% to 7% 0% to 5% 0% to 5%
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India 3% to 8% 1% to 6% 1% to 6% 1% to 6%
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Japan 3% to 8% 2% to 7% 1% to 6% 1% to 6%
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Singapore 3% to 8% 1% to 6% 1% to 6% (-1%) to 4%
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Asia Pacific 3% to 8% 1% to 6% 1% to 6% 1% to 6%
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"The 2010 Forecast clearly underscores that the complexity of managing business travel and understanding the underlying dynamics of the industry and supply base only becomes more challenging as economic conditions change and business opportunity is global," said
Adoption of Strategic Meetings Management
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The Forecast reports companies will have more formal oversight of their meeting planning and meetings spending in 2010. In addition, companies are expected to loosen purse-strings on events and conferences, with potential in-roads made by travel category managers adopting strategic meetings management programs. The strategic alliance, maxvantage, between American Express Business Travel and Maritz Travel, was created this year to help assist companies with the adoption process and to get them on track for a successful SMMP heading into 2010 through centralized sourcing, meeting planning, data analysis and business insight.
"Tapping into maxvantage can give companies a leg up in adopting a successful SMMP by providing direct access to capabilities and best practices that will drive savings while not sacrificing quality," said Hervé Sedky, vice president and general manager of Global Advisory Services, American Express Business Travel. "Looking at the larger picture, this also enhances a company's level of transparency, control and insight across the entire category of meetings, which is something everyone in the business travel industry is being called upon to do right now."
The Global Business Travel Forecast 2010 is available for purchase for
Forecast Methodology
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The 2010 Forecast is based on a number of primary data sources, including the American Express Business Travel Monitor, the American Express contracted rates database, aggregate transaction reports, Smith Travel Research (STR) Global Hotel Reviews, and for the first time this year, NBTA-IHS Global Insights business travel market sizing research. Projections were based on a combination of these primary sources and interviews with American Express category and regional experts. NBTA-IHS Global Insights and STR data is used with permission.
Although the forecasts and projections provided in the report are based on information gathered from internal and external sources that American Express Business Travel believes to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy of the forecasts or projections made herein. In addition, actual changes in business travel costs could vary significantly from forecasted data, particularly as a result of unforeseen future political, economic and/or environmental events.
All ranges represent forecasted year-over-year increases.
About American Express Business Travel
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American Express Business Travel (www.americanexpress.com/businesstravel), a division of American Express Company, is committed to helping its clients maximize the greatest return on their travel investment through increased cost savings, world-class customer service and greater spending control. With clients ranging from small businesses to multinational corporations, American Express Business Travel provides a combination of industry-leading technology, travel management consulting, strategic sourcing and supplier negotiation support, alongside global customer service available online and offline.
American Express operates one of the world's largest travel agency networks with locations in over 140 countries worldwide. Total travel sales volume in 2008 was
American Express Company (www.americanexpress.com) is a leading global payments, network and travel company founded in 1850.
For further information: Jolene Price, American Express Canada, (905) 474-8746, [email protected]
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