Alberta's economy remains resilient amid geopolitical turmoil

EDMONTON, AB, March 26, 2026 /CNW/ - Ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty continues to create a  challenging backdrop for Alberta businesses and consumers. At the same time, Alberta's economy has remained resilient, and is expected to continue to grow faster than the national economy.  

According to ATB Financial's Economic Outlook released today, Alberta's real GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised to 2.7 per cent, up from the 2.1 per cent projected in December. The upgrade reflects a combination of higher oil prices and stronger-than-expected economic performance in late 2025 and into early 2026. The report highlights uneven impacts across the country from the recent surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran. Alberta, the country's largest oil producing province, is expected to outpace national GDP growth of 1.3 per cent. 

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global energy markets, prompting an upgrade to the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to average US$75 per barrel this year (up from US$61 in the December forecast). While this price spike will drive a robust 6.0 per cent increase in Alberta's nominal GDP--resulting in a significant revenue increase for governments and corporations--it is not expected to translate into a traditional energy boom. Energy producers are maintaining capital discipline, holding real capital spending steady in the absence of clarity on new pipeline capacity or the duration of the price increase.

"While higher oil prices will drive a surge in revenues, we anticipate that producers will be cautious with their capital expenditures," said Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial. "However, there is upside to our forecast if new pipeline projects proceed, creating a runway to invest in new growth projects."

Key highlights:

• Record Oil Exports to Asia: Despite cautious capital spending, Alberta's oil production remains at an all-time high. The Trans Mountain Expansion has successfully scaled oil shipments to Asia to over $9 billion in 2025.
• Rising Costs for Producers and Consumers: Global energy market disruptions are creating a "Hormuz premium" on energy and fertilizer, increasing operating costs for agricultural producers. Alberta's inflation is projected to average 2.5 per cent in 2026, with the Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates in 2026 at 2.25 per cent.
• Trade and Export Pressures: The province's manufacturing and export sectors face persistent headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty, including softwood lumber duties and the upcoming  Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review.
• Shifting Labour Landscape: Alberta's population growth is expected to slow to 1.1 per cent as federal policies reduce non-permanent residents. Job creation will remain strong in 2026 at 3.1 per cent before slowing in 2027, bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.4 per cent.
• Diversified growth: Alberta is benefiting from activity across a wide range of sectors including tourism, tech, aviation, petrochemicals and agri-food processing.

"Despite better headline economic numbers in Alberta, we know the reality on the ground for many Albertans is far more complex," said Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial. "Higher prices for fuel and groceries are squeezing household budgets. A resilient job market, aided by both resource sectors and growth in new sectors, is helping cushion some of those impacts."

For the full analysis, read the complete Alberta Economic Outlook.

About ATB Financial

Powering possibilities for our clients, communities, and beyond is what drives us at ATB Financial. As a leading Alberta-based financial institution with over $100 billion in total assets and assets under management, our success comes from more than 5,000 team members who deliver exceptional experiences to over 843,000 clients across our Personal and Business Banking, ATB Wealth Management, and ATB Capital Markets businesses. ATB Financial provides expert advice and services through our extensive branch network and agencies, our dedicated Client Care Centre and our digital banking options. ATB Financial is bronze certified as part of the Partnership Accreditation in Indigenous Relations commissioned by the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business.

General Disclosure
ATB Financial's Economic Outlook is intended for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered specific legal, financial, tax or other professional advice or recommendations. Information presented is believed to be reliable and up-to-date but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The actual outcome may be materially different. ATB Financial and any of its affiliates are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by ATB Financial or any of its affiliates and related entities.

For more information or interview requests, please contact:
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SOURCE ATB Financial