2026 PROSPERA BAROMETER: QUEBEC'S PROSPERITY REMAINS STRONG, BUT CUSTOMS TARIFFS AND BUSINESS SUCCESSION COULD UNDERMINE ITS ACHIEVEMENTS

Seize the moment. Define the future.

Quadrat

MONTREAL, Sept. 28, 2026 /CNW/ -- BCF Business Law and Quadrat Conseils unveil the third edition of Quebec's economic Prospera Barometer, produced by Delorme Lajoie Consultation. Since 1980, the structural determinants of prosperity have improved more in Quebec than in Ontario and across Canada as a whole, thanks primarily to investment, R&D, gains in energy efficiency, and improvements in human capital. This year, the Barometer presents the first in-depth analysis of the vulnerability of key industries to U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs, as well as their potential impact on Quebec's future prosperity. It also addresses another major challenge: Some 38,000 businesses will change hands within the next 3 years.

"To move Quebec's economy forward, we must first thoroughly understand it: Grasp the changes that are shaping it, anticipate the risks and identify the drivers of growth. It is this understanding that enables us to bridge the gap between law and business and provide leaders with strategic guidance during critical moments," asserts Julie Doré, Managing Partner at BCF Business Law.

Key Facts

• Quebec in the lead: In 2024, Quebec's index reached 134.2 (base 100 in 1980), ahead of Canada (129.0) and Ontario (126.8). Ranked first since 1991, Quebec owes this progress primarily to investment, R&D, energy efficiency and human capital.
• Persistent structural constraints: The high level of imports, household debt and the shrinking working-age population are weighing on prosperity.
• A wave of business transfers: Nearly 38,000 businesses will change hands within the next 3 years, according to Repreneuriat Québec. In 2023, the 11,755 businesses transferred supported approximately 194,300 jobs.
• Stronger acquired businesses: Seven years after their transfer, 73% of the businesses acquired in 2015 were still in operation, compared with 49% of the businesses established that same year. In 2023, they generated 13.3% more revenue per employee. Since 2015, they have increased their R&D spending by 16.3%, while spending by other companies has declined by 23.3%.

Tariffs: Trade Tensions Are Testing Quebec's Resilience

• Ten key economic subsectors analyzed: During the 12-month period from August 2025 to July 2026, these sectors generated $120.6 billion in exports worldwide, including $55.3 billion to the United States. Together, they accounted for 68% of all Quebec exports to the United States.
• Tariffs, a new economic risk: According to the analyzed scenarios, the most recent round of U.S. tariffs, combined with the ongoing measures already in place and Canadian counter-tariffs, could result in a net reduction in output of $5.3 to $6.6 billion in the sectors most exposed to these measures. Accounting for direct, indirect and induced effects, between 17,000 and nearly 23,000 jobs could be at risk.
• A measured dual exposure: The analysis measures the pressures exerted by U.S. tariffs on exports and by Canadian counter-tariffs on supply chains. It presents two successive snapshots, as certain U.S. measures can be directly associated with the products targeted, whereas those targeting metals in particular require additional assumptions and are therefore estimated with less precision.
• The first snapshot covers tariffs targeting a broad range of products. It primarily highlights electrical equipment and paper.
• The second snapshot adds tariffs targeting steel, aluminum and certain derivative products. Because their application sometimes depends on the metal content of the products, their impact must be estimated using assumptions and therefore remains less precise. This snapshot nevertheless clearly shows a shift in risk toward metal industries: fabricated metal product manufacturing exhibits the most pronounced combination of exposures, while primary metal manufacturing joins electrical equipment among the most vulnerable sectors.
• In the medium and long term, reducing dependence on the U.S. market while maintaining investment, innovation, and productivity gains will be crucial to future prosperity. Quebec's economic diversification, human capital and energy advantages could support this adaptation. Conversely, if trade tensions persist and continue to hamper investment and innovation over the long term, the Prospera index's growth could slow or even reverse.

Business Succession: What If the Challenge Weren't Just About the Buyers?

The Barometer calls for looking beyond the mere issue of numbers of buyers: Of the 38,000 businesses set to change hands, how many are truly transferable? Interventions must address both sides. For business buyers, it's important to facilitate access to financing, develop management skills and adapt tax and financial mechanisms, particularly for younger buyers. For business owners, starting preparation several years in advance helps reduce reliance on the owner-operator, streamline processes, transfer knowledge and prepare for the transition.

"A successful transfer depends on more than just legal and financial preparation; sellers and buyers must also prepare themselves on a personal level. It is this comprehensive planning that makes it possible to preserve the business's value and ensure its long-term viability," says Alain Robichaud, Senior Partner at Quadrat Conseils.

About Prospera

Launched in 2023, Prospera, Quebec's economic barometer, tracks changes in the economic performance of Quebec, Ontario and the rest of Canada since 1980 using 28 structural variables grouped into 6 categories. It aims to forecast the economic trajectory over a 5- to 10-year horizon. Link to the 2026 Prospera report (in French)

About BCF

BCF propels Quebec's economy by supporting the leaders and organizations that shape it, through an innovative and purpose-driven practice that combines business and law. With over 600 employees, including 330 legal professionals, the firm stands out for its ability to support clients at critical junctures. BCF has been named one of Canada's Best Managed Companies every year since 2007, a rare honour in the legal community that attests to its organizational excellence and business vision.

About Quadrat Conseils

For 25 years, Quadrat Conseils has been supporting officers, senior management teams and boards of directors at private and public organizations in addressing their leadership, governance and value creation challenges.

SOURCE BCF Avocats d'affaires

Inquiries and interview requests: Jean-Yves Beaudoin | 514-378-0515 - [email protected]