130 species in Southern Ontario at risk of local extinction by 2050 if no new actions taken

New study shows 98% of species in decline in the Lake Simcoe-Rideau ecoregion could disappear by 2050 without action, but targeted strategies offer a clear path forward

TORONTO, Nov. 3, 2025 /CNW/ - Southern Ontario is home to 133 at-risk species, 98 per cent of which could be locally extinct in the next 25 years if the provincial government takes no action to protect them. But a new study from the University of British Columbia (UBC) and World Wildlife Fund Canada (WWF-Canada) has found that an investment of just $7 per Ontarian in eight conservation strategies would help 75 per cent of these species recover, including the black bear, the short-eared owl and the Blanding's turtle.

Published today in the journal Ecological Solutions and Evidence, the study looked at the state of biodiversity in the Lake Simcoe-Rideau ecoregion, a hotspot for species at risk. It found that if Ontario does not address risks to these species, 130 of the 133 species that are in decline, at risk or of cultural significance to Indigenous Peoples could disappear by 2050.

Researchers also found that an investment of $113 million a year in eight conservation strategies -- from habitat protection to creating safe crossings for wildlife and better managing invasive species -- would help recover 100 of these species. That's less than one-tenth of one per cent of Ontario's 2024 provincial budget.

"If Ontario continues with a 'business as usual' approach, 130 species -- 98 per cent of those at risk -- could disappear from the region by 2050," Abbey Camaclang, study author and researcher at UBC's faculty of forestry, said. "But our analysis shows recovery is possible and identifies the most cost-efficient ways to achieve it."

Identifying high-impact conservation strategies

Researchers used Priority Threat Management (PTM), a decision-making tool developed by Dr. Tara Martin and her team. PTM draws on local expert knowledge to quantify costs, benefits and feasibility, and rapidly identify conservation actions that deliver the greatest biodiversity gains for the least cost.

The eight strategies identified include wildlife management, landowner stewardship, legislation and policy, habitat protection, wildlife-safe crossings, invasive species and disease management, restoration and regeneration, and industry-targeted practices.

"In Canada, we have 864 species at risk of extinction and no costed plan to save them. PTM identifies how to make the most out of the resources we have and identifies the shortfall – that is, how much more funding do we need to give these plants and animals the best chance of recovery and thriving in the future," Dr. Tara Martin, senior author and UBC professor in the faculty of forestry, said.

In addition to benefits for wildlife, the strategies identified through PTM could also improve water quality, protect culturally important species for Indigenous Peoples, create jobs, and store and sequester carbon. Conserving and restoring habitats in the region could also avoid at least 11.2 Mt CO₂ equivalent in greenhouse gas emissions and sequester 137.6 Mt CO₂ equivalent, contributing to reducing Ontario's greenhouse gas emissions over time, and offsetting costs to implementing conservation actions.

"PTM highlights the urgent need for action in Ontario, at a time when environmental protections like the Endangered Species Act are under threat," James Snider, vice-president, Science, Knowledge and Innovation at WWF-Canada, said. "Without new investments and strong legislation, we risk losing species like the American bumble bee, barn owl, Eastern wolf and piping plover, and weaken ecosystems that are also essential to communities' well-being and livelihoods."

Call for action in Ontario

UBC and WWF-Canada have also applied the Priority Threat Management framework to the Wolastoq watershed in New Brunswick, immediately putting the findings into action. WWF-Canada, working with on-the-ground partners, has restored more than 5,300 hectares of habitat and planted more than 31,000 trees and plants.

"By applying PTM to the Lake Simcoe-Rideau ecoregion, we've identified the most effective conservation actions and can now quantify their broader benefits -- improved water quality, job creation, carbon storage. This gives decision-makers a clear roadmap to recover species at risk while delivering real environmental and societal value," Dr. Martin said.

Supporting materials:
Link to the paper
Link to the PTM Southern Ontario fact sheet 

About World Wildlife Fund Canada
WWF-Canada is committed to equitable and effective conservation actions that restore nature, reverse wildlife loss and fight climate change. We draw on scientific analysis and Indigenous guidance to ensure all our efforts connect to a single goal: a future where wildlife, nature and people thrive. For more information visit wwf.ca.

About Conservation Decision Lab, University of British Columbia, Faculty of Forestry
The Conservation Decision Lab is led by Dr Tara Martin and comprises a team of research fellows and graduate students pioneering the development of methods to predict impacts of cumulative effects on biodiversity and transform these predictions into decisions to inform what actions to take, when and where to recover and conserve biodiversity.

SOURCE World Wildlife Fund Canada

For further information and interview requests for WWF-Canada, please contact: Laurence C. Desrosiers, Senior Communications Manager, WWF-Canada, [email protected]; For further information and interview requests for the University of British Columbia please contact: Charlotte Fisher, UBC Faculty of Forestry, Cel: 236-989-9828, [email protected]