$170 per tonne industrial carbon tax by 2030--currently Ottawa's plan--will cost Canadian workers $1,160 in reduced income and result in 50,000 fewer jobs

TORONTO, March 26, 2026 /CNW/ - If Canada's industrial carbon price rises to $170 per tonne by 2030, as is currently mandated by the federal government, the Canadian economy will create 50,000 fewer jobs and Canadian workers will earn $1,160 less every year, according to a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

"The federal government still plans to increase the industrial carbon tax to $170 per tonne by 2030, but Canadians are in the dark about the substantial costs that will impose," said Ross McKitrick, a senior fellow with the Fraser Institute and co-author of Estimated Impacts of a $170 Industrial Carbon Price in Alberta and Canada.

The study, the first to be published in collaboration with the Fraser Institute's new macro modelling centre, finds that increasing the national industrial carbon price to $170 per tonne by 2030--in line with the federal mandate--would cause the Canadian economy to shrink by 1.3 per cent, relative to a scenario in which the industrial carbon price does not increase after 2025.

This would translate to $1,160 less per worker, and 50,000 fewer jobs would be created nationwide.

The impact of increasing the industrial carbon tax in energy-intensive jurisdictions, like Alberta, would be more severe. Specifically, since Alberta's carbon price (currently frozen at $95 per tonne) will have to increase to match the federal benchmark, Albertan workers would lose out on $1,730 annually, and 10,000 fewer jobs would be created in that province alone.

Crucially, the study finds capital earnings (interest, dividends, capital gains, etc.) decline much more than labour earnings (wages and salaries). The large drop in returns to capital can be expected to result in reduced or cancelled investment plans, which will translate into further long-run declines in Canadian living standards.

"Policymakers--and all Canadians--need to understand the significant costs further carbon price increases would impose," said Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource studies at the Fraser Institute and study co-author.

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The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax and ties to a global network of think-tanks in 87 countries. Its mission is to improve the quality of life for Canadians, their families and future generations by studying, measuring and broadly communicating the effects of government policies, entrepreneurship and choice on their well-being. To protect the Institute's independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit www.fraserinstitute.org

SOURCE The Fraser Institute

MEDIA CONTACT: Ross McKitrick, Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute; To arrange media interviews or for more information, please contact: Drue MacPherson, [phone] ext. 721, [email protected]