OTTAWA, Dec. 17, 2012 /CNW/ - The Canadian Real Estate Association
(CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2012 and
When CREA's resale housing forecast was published in September, activity
showed the first signs of slowing in the wake of new mortgage lending
regulations. Demand has remained at lower levels, and this trend is
expected to persist through the end of the year. Lower than projected
third quarter sales have downgraded the prospects for activity this
year in almost every province.
National resale housing activity is now projected to reach 456,300 units
in 2012. This represents a 0.5 per cent decline from 458,412 sales in
2011, and stands 0.9 per cent below the 10-year average (2002 - 2011).
Alberta is still expected to post the biggest annual increase this year
(+13.1%), offsetting most of the projected decline in British Columbia
Sales activity is expected to be less volatile next year than it was in
2012. In 2013, CREA forecasts that national sales activity will recede
by two per cent to 447,400 units. This is a slightly lower level of
activity than previously forecast, reflecting the ongoing impact of new
mortgage rules into next year. The continuation of moderate economic,
job, and income growth will temper the impact of recent mortgage rule
changes, which are not expected to dampen activity much more than has
already been felt until interest rates are expected to begin rising in
"All real estate is local, so housing market prospects can and do differ
among regions and communities," said Wayne Moen, CREA President. "For
that reason, buyers and sellers should talk to their REALTOR® about the
housing market outlook where they live or would like to live."
"Annual sales in 2012 reflect a stronger profile prior to recent
mortgage rule changes followed by weaker activity following their
implementation," said Gregory Klump, CREA's Chief Economist. "By
contrast, forecast sales in 2013 reflect an improvement from levels
this summer in the immediate wake of mortgage rule changes. Even so,
sales in most provinces next year are expected to remain down from
levels posted prior to the most recent changes to mortgage
regulations," said Klump.
Despite the small downward revisions to the forecast for national sales
in 2012 and 2013, activity is still expected to remain within short
reach of the 10-year average (2002 - 2011).
National sales activity over the first five years of the past decade
compared to the most recent five years represent two very different
periods. Most of the national average price growth in the 2002-2007
period was realized amid sustained sellers' market conditions in most
large urban housing markets. Most provincial housing markets are
currently balanced, and are expected to remain or return to balanced
market territory for 2013.
The national average home price is projected to rise by 0.3 per cent to
$363,900 in 2012, with gains in excess of that in most provinces. The
smaller gain in average price nationally as compared to most provinces
largely reflects a decline in sales activity among more expensive
housing markets compared to 2011, particularly in British Columbia and
more recently in Ontario.
The national average price is forecast to edge up another three tenths
of one per cent to $365,100 in 2013, with British Columbia, Ontario,
and New Brunswick registering small price declines and modest average
price gains in line with or below inflation in other provinces.
SOURCE: Canadian Real Estate Association
For further information:
Pierre Leduc, Media relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
613-237-7111 or 613 884-1460