Unprecedented 'mortgage sale' and consumer confidence fuel real estate prices in first quarter 2012

Early spring-like weather jump starts housing market activity

TORONTO, April 5, 2012 /CNW/ - The Royal LePage House Price Survey released today showed the average price of a home in Canada increased between 2.2 and 5.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2012, compared to the previous year.

Market activity in the first quarter of 2012 was unusually high resulting in tight inventories and strong price appreciation in most major cities. Buyers were attracted into the market by historically low mortgage rates and sellers brought listing inventory to market earlier than normal, encouraged by unseasonably warm weather.

In the first quarter, standard two-storey homes rose 5.0 per cent year-over-year to $398,282, while detached bungalows increased 4.4 per cent to $356,306. Average prices for standard condominiums increased 2.2 per cent to $243,153.

"Our housing market is being pulled in opposite directions by opposing economic forces," said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. "On one hand, there is the rapidly strengthening U.S. economy, increasing Canadian consumer confidence and what can only be called a national mortgage sale encouraging activity and bidding up home prices. On the other, we have signs of over-shooting values and strained affordability in our largest cities. We are likely to see much more modest price appreciation as the year unfolds."

Price appreciation and strong unit sales reflect Canadians taking advantage of borrowing rates that for the first time fell below 3.0 per cent for a five year fixed mortgage and a banking environment that the Royal Bank of Canada has referred to as "hyper-competitive."

Soper commented that the effect of low mortgage rates is more pronounced in cities that are affordable such as Winnipeg, Ottawa and St. John's.

"In Vancouver, the average price of a standard two-storey home is now $1,182,250. Although the city posted strong year-over-year price gains in the first quarter, we expect to see Vancouver's housing market to reach a level of price resistance. Although desirability is high, many potential buyers have simply been pushed out of the market and cannot take advantage of low mortgage rates, which will ease demand and should bring price relief," said Soper.

In comparison, Soper commented that he did not expect price resistance to affect Toronto's housing market where a standard two-storey home would sell for $645,467.

Another notable exception was Calgary whose flat year-over-year house price appreciation masked a very active housing market that witnessed double digit growth in unit sales compared to the same period in 2011.

Across the country, consumers sought to buy into what they believe is a good investment market. The Conference Board of Canada's consumer confidence index continued to rise in March, gaining 4.3 points to stand at 79.5, its third consecutive month of gains, and attitudes towards major purchases, such as real estate, were particularly strong.

Soper concluded, "Generally when the market witnesses a surge in unit sales activity in the first half of the year, it borrows from the second half as potential buyers jump in early to take advantage of a favourable environment."

Regional Market Summaries

Cities in Atlantic Canada all witnessed price appreciation with the exception of Moncton where house prices remained flat year-over-year. The strongest year-over-year price appreciation was found in St. John's, Newfoundland where the average house price increased between 7.0 and 9.9 per cent.

Montreal witnessed an increase in average year-over-year price gains across the housing types surveyed. The largest gains were seen in standard two-storey homes, which rose 4.9 per cent year-over-year.

Ottawa's stable local economy continued to produce healthy gains as the average house price appreciated between 6.0 and 6.2 per cent year-over-year across the three house types surveyed. The average price of a standard two-storey home is $387,833.

Toronto's lack of inventory in a low mortgage rate environment produced strong year-over-year price appreciation in the first quarter of 2012. Detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes increased by 5.5 and 7.5 per cent respectively. On average, standard condominiums appreciated a healthy 3.5 per cent year-over-year demonstrating continued demand despite concerns of ample supply.

Considered Canada's most affordable city with a diversified economy, Winnipeg's housing market benefitted from low mortgage rates as all three housing types posted substantial price gains. Standard condominiums, generally the most affordable housing type, witnessed a considerable year-over-year price gain rising 11.2 per cent - the largest price gain of any housing type across Canada.

Regina saw strong price appreciation across all housing types surveyed confirming that it is still in a seller's market. Detached bungalows made the largest gains, increasing 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $316,500.

Despite double digit unit sales growth, Calgary's housing market remained generally flat in the first quarter due to ample housing supply. Average prices for detached bungalows increased a modest 1.9 per cent year-over-year due to a lack of inventory. However, Calgary's standard two-storey homes and standard condominiums witnessed modest price declines of 1.2 and 2.6 per cent, respectively, as demand was met with a sufficient amount of listings. Edmonton, posted healthy gains for both detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes, which rose 4.6 and 3.4 per cent year-over-year. Prices for standard condominiums remained flat compared to the same period last year.

Vancouver posted strong price appreciation for detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes, while condominiums remained flat compared to the first quarter of 2011.

Royal LePage's quarterly House Price Survey shows the annual change of prices for key housing segments in select national markets. 

	Detached Bungalows				Standard Two Storey				Standard Condominium
Market	Q1 2012 Average	Last Quarter Avg	Q1 2011 Average	Bungalow % Change	Q1 2012 Average	Last Quarter Avg	Q1 2011 Average	2 Storey % Change	Q1 2012 Average	Last Quarter Avg	Q1 2011 Average	Condo % Change
Halifax	273,333	273,000	264,833	3.2%	306,667	304,000	298,000	2.9%	201,000	201,000	191,500	5.0%
Charlottetown	170,000	168,000	163,000	4.3%	200,000	200,000	195,000	2.6%	125,000	125,000	123,000	1.6%
Moncton	145,700	156,100	150,000	-2.9%	134,800	137,800	131,000	2.9%
Fredericton	205,000	201,000	192,000	6.8%	208,000	208,000	206,500	0.7%	157,000	157,000	157,000	0.0%
Saint John	191,000	179,946	178,000	7.3%	293,250	298,076	295,000	-0.6%	161,500	159,370	162,082	-0.4%
St. John's	262,500	257,333	238,793	9.9%	350,500	343,500	327,627	7.0%	274,000	268,667	256,023	7.0%
Montreal	286,000	276,929	276,343	3.5%	387,429	360,464	369,250	4.9%	239,000	229,528	233,789	2.2%
Ottawa	385,667	373,500	363,167	6.2%	387,833	377,750	365,500	6.1%	257,667	252,083	243,083	6.0%
Toronto	544,450	532,137	516,050	5.5%	645,467	629,188	600,310	7.5%	353,355	347,659	341,550	3.5%
Winnipeg	283,375	276,750	269,250	5.2%	309,250	305,875	297,125	4.1%	186,143	177,286	167,429	11.2%
Regina	316,500	316,500	286,000	10.7%	299,000	327,500	273,000	9.5%	199,000	199,000	191,000	4.2%
Saskatoon	338,750	334,250	331,250	2.3%	371,000	368,750	360,000	3.1%	237,000	232,333	239,333	-1.0%
Calgary	422,989	416,622	415,167	1.9%	418,233	414,778	423,122	-1.2%	248,111	248,567	254,856	-2.6%
Edmonton	324,143	314,857	309,857	4.6%	354,714	343,393	343,143	3.4%	203,143	202,367	203,429	-0.1%
Vancouver	1,068,500	1,017,500	980,000	9.0%	1,182,250	1,117,250	1,083,750	9.1%	510,000	499,000	507,250	0.5%
Victoria	470,000	486,000	490,000	-4.1%	459,000	480,000	480,000	-4.4%	287,000	282,000	299,000	-4.0%
National	356,306	344,392	341,355	4.4%	398,282	375,427	379,388	5.0%	243,153	234,680	237,919	2.2%

About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey is the largest, most comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast.  This release references an abbreviated version of the survey which highlights house price trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 90 communities across the country.  A complete database of past and present surveys is available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca. Current figures will be updated following the complete tabulation of the data for the first quarter 2012. A printable version of the first quarter 2012 survey will be available online on May 2, 2012.

Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are Royal LePage opinions of fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. 

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country's leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of 14,000 real estate professionals in over 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women's & children's shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbolTSX:BRE.

For more information, visit www.royallepage.ca.

 

Michael Gotzamanis
Fleishman-Hillard Canada
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michael.gotzama[email protected]

Tammy Gilmer
Director, Global Communications & Public Relations
Royal LePage Real Estate Services
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