SURVEY - AMERICAN INVASION IMMINENT? OVER HALF OF CANADIANS THINK A CANADIAN INVASION LIKELY AFTER VENEZUELA OCCUPATION

TORONTO, Jan. 19, 2026 /CNW/ - With the recent invasion of Venezuela, ongoing threats against Greenland, and high tariff/takeover tensions between Canada and the United States, Canadians are increasingly concerned about a real military conflict with the USA. Just completed polling by GEF Consulting Inc. shows that over half of Canadians (57.9%) feel that an invasion of Canada is more likely after the invasion of Venezuela. Specifically, 39.5% think it's 'more' likely, 10.6% say it's 'much more likely,' and 7.8% say it's 'likely' after the US invaded Venezuela.

Could the new Defence Investment Agency drop the ball on arming up?
With Canada's newly opened Defence Investment Agency planning quick and major increases in military spending, one procurement expert is looking at a hypothetical US invasion to flag potential problems BEFORE they happen as Canada's military scales up.

GEF Consulting Inc. (pronounced "GEFF"), North America's go-to public sector procurement consultancy, asked 1000 random Canadians how they think Canada would fare against a US Invasion while looking for potential red flags in the procurement process as Canada arms up.

Key Findings of the Survey:
Please reference this as a survey by GEF Consulting in all media coverage

1. Invasion Insecurities Indicated:
Canadians are actually quite concerned about the possibility of a US invasion: in January polling, a combined 72.4% of Canadians think an invasion may be possible, with 40% saying 'it seems possible,' 19.6% saying it 'may be' possible and 12.8% going as far as saying it's very likely.'

Notably, this is a 6.1% increase from October polling when a combined 66.3% said an invasion may be possible with 29.40% saying 'it seems possible,' 26.2% saying it 'may be' possible and 10.7% saying its 'very likely.'

2. Canadians lack confidence in our combat capabilities
Asked if they think the current military could actually defend against a US invasion, a combined 79.3% responded 'no' (54.7%) or 'Maybe' (24.6%).

3. Canadians tense about Trump's term
Polled in January and asked, 'when they think a USA invasion would happen if they did invade,' 66.1% of Canadians said 'before the end of the Trump presidency' (notably, this is a 13.3% increase in the stat from polling in October).  9.90% were even less optimistic, saying 'within the next year,' and 7.30% think it would happen 'within 5 years.'

4. Questionable Intelligence?
Canadians do NOT trust Canadian intelligence services to spot US invasion plans early. 33.1% 'kinda' trust Canadian intelligence services, nearly a quarter of Canadians (23.2%) say they don't, and 17.5% say they 'don't know.'

5. Defence agency doubts are definitive:
Asked if they have confidence that Canada's new "Defence Investment Agency" for defence procurement could scale up the Canadian military quickly enough to fend off a US invasion, a combined 80% of Canadians said 'no' (44.5%) or 'maybe' (35.5%).

Procurement expert Graeme Foster is cautiously optimistic of the new department and its ability to scale up, but says there are at least three red flags to look out for:

I. "It's a great idea in concept but now they must create a fully functioning, brand-new organization … there's always a gap between idea to operational. We need to ask how long that is realistically going to take," said Foster.

II. "An ex-banking 'mover and shaker' of great pedigree in his world has been put in charge – but someone who doesn't have the public sector procurement background could be a big problem."

III. "The Liberal government already has a history of setting up new departments … then nothing happens for years. For example, the Infrastructure Bank Agency was set up to fund capital projects across the country, and it took many, many years to disperse actual money, added Foster.

6. Penny pinching and procurement paralysis?

Asked what Canadians think would be the biggest obstacles to mounting an effective defence against the USA, 41.3% said 'procurement paralysis' in January 2026 polling - not being able to buy the required hardware quickly and efficiently enough (this represents a 5.6% increase in Canadians' concerns over 'procurement paralysis' since October polling, when it was only 35.7%). 29.4% of Canadians cited 'not wanting to spend the money on military hardware,' and 29.3% said 'not being able to procure the hardware needed from countries other than the USA.'

"If 6-9 months after inception the new Defence Investment Agency still isn't talking about what they are going out to market with (buying), that's a major indicator to the negative. Radio silence would be a bad harbinger," added Foster.

7. "Sorry" trumps spending:
Asked how much they would personally be willing to pay in additional taxes for a "proper national defence against the USA," Canadians responded with 'thrift over threats' and showed a clear preference for spending nothing and 'just apologizing':

$0 (we'll just apologize)	40.10 %
$100/year	29.20 %
$500/year	12.40 %
$1,000+/year (proud patriot)	11.70 %

8. Damage dollars defined:
Asked how much economic damage could befall Canada after 6 months of an American invasion, 36.3% of Canadians said $1Trillion +, 24.5% said $500 Billion, 24.2% said 100 billion and 15.0% said $10 Billion.

9. Border Blind Spots:

Asked which borders Canadians think are "MOST at risk of a USA Incursion," Canadians were divided, answering:

1. Ontario–New York	49.20 %
2. Ontario/Michigan	33.70 %
3. British Columbia–Washington	33.20 %
4. Quebec /New York	26.30 %
5. Alberta–Montana	23.10 %
6. Yukon/Alaska	18.10 %
7. Quebec–Vermont	16.50 %
8.Saskatchewan/North Dakota	15.10 %
9) Quebec/Maine	14.90 %
10) Manitoba/North Dakota	13.30 %
11) British Columbia - Idaho	13.00 %
12) Manitoba/Minnesota	12.70 %
13) New Brunswick/Maine	12.10 %

10. Energy, Food and Financial Services top Industrial Impact insights:

Asked which industries would be most impacted by a USA invasion, Canadians replied:

1. Energy (oil, gas, power)	13.79 %
2. Food & agriculture	11.67 %
3. Financial services (banking, payments, insurance)	10.14 %
4. Transportation & logistics (rail, trucking, ports, air)	9.83 %
5. Utilities & water	9.00 %
6. Mining & critical minerals	8.22 %
7. Forestry, pulp & paper	7.41 %
8. Automotive & advanced manufacturing	6.99 %
9. Telecom & digital infrastructure	6.53 %
10. Aerospace & defence manufacturing	6.25 %

About GEF Consulting Inc.:
GEF Consulting Inc. is North America's go-to public sector procurement consultancy unlocking exceptional outcomes through procurement consulting services in supply chain management, business transformation, and IT advisory, GEF has been trusted by government agencies for 28 years, boasts 100+ public sector clients worldwide and has completed 200+ procurement projects.

Contact:
Patrick McCaully
Pointman News Creation
[email protected]

SOURCE GEF Consulting Inc.