St. John's Housing Market Growth to Continue

ST. JOHN'S , Nov. 2 /CNW/ - Resilient consumer spending, large capital projects and improved employment will continue to support the St. John's region housing market throughout the remainder of 2009 and in 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC'S) Housing Market Outlook - St. John's report released today.

Housing starts are expected to end 2009 at 1,675 units, with 1,800 starts forecast for 2010. The resale or MLS(R)(1) market will post 3,450 sales by the end of this year and reach the 3,575 level in 2010. The average MLS(R) house price is expected to end 2009 at $215,500 compared to $187,571 in 2008 and increase to $225,500 in 2010.

"Despite the recent global economic uncertainty, strong fundamentals will continue to support demand for housing throughout the remainder of 2009 and in 2010," said Chris Janes , senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. "Overall, the positive outlook for the St. John's area housing market will be reinforced by favourable trends in demographic and economic fundamentals, as well as on-going economic momentum fuelled by a lengthy list of major capital projects," added Janes.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

    
    (1) MLS(R) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate
        Association.


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                               Forecast Summary
                               St. John's CMA
                                  Fall 2009
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                      2006     2007     2008    2009f  % chg    2010f  % chg
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    Resale Market
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    MLS(R) Sales        NA       NA    3,835    3,450  -10.0    3,575    3.6
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    MLS(R) Active
     Listings        7,292    7,416    7,520    7,000   -6.9    6,850   -2.1
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    MLS(R) Average
     Price ($)     139,542  149,258  187,571  215,500   14.9  225,500    4.6
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    New Home Market
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    Starts:
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      Single-
       Detached        985    1,174    1,485    1,375   -7.4    1,450    5.5
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      Multiples        290      306      378      300  -20.6      350   16.7
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      Starts -
       Total         1,275    1,480    1,863    1,675  -10.1    1,800    7.5
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    Average Price ($):
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      Single-
       Detached    202,698  211,123  230,473  275,000   19.3  290,000    5.5
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    Median Price ($):
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      Single-
       Detached    175,812  189,900  200,000  238,500   19.3  251,500    5.5
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    New Housing
     Price Index
     (% chg.)          3.7      5.0     19.6     15.0    n/a      4.0    n/a
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    Rental Market
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    October Vacancy
     Rate (%)          5.1      2.6      0.8      1.0    0.2      1.5    0.5
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    Two-bedroom
     Average Rent
     (October) ($)     635      614      630      700    6.0      725   11.0
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    Economic
     Overview
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     Mortgage Rate
     (1 year) (%)     6.28     6.90     6.70     4.16  -2.54     4.45   0.29
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    Mortgage Rate
     (5 year) (%)     6.66     7.07     7.06     5.72  -1.34     6.24   0.52
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    Annual
     Employment
     Level          93,200   94,400   98,000   99,500    1.5  102,000    2.5
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    Employment
     Growth (%)        2.9      1.4      3.8      1.5    n/a      2.5    n/a
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    Unemployment
     rate (%)          8.2      6.9      7.8      8.0    n/a      7.5    n/a
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    Net
     Migration (1)     121    1,978    2,000    1,750  -12.5    2,000   14.3
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    MLS(R) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
    (CREA).

    Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey),
    adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), CREA, Statistics Canada
    (CANSIM)
    NOTE: Rental universe = Privately initiated rental apartment
    structures of three units and over
    (1) 2008 migration data is for ecasted


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For further information: on this release: Chris Janes, Senior Market Analyst - NL, [phone], [email protected]; visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642