OTTAWA, ON, Sept. 10, 2026 /CNW/ -- Economic conditions are expected to improve across Canadian provinces in the latter half of the year as hiring activity has increased and there are growing signs that businesses are becoming more confident in investment plans, according to new analysis from Signal49 Research.
"While the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East, demographic pressures and ongoing tariff uncertainty have had reverberating impacts across the country, they have been felt unevenly," stated Richard Forbes, Lead Economist at Signal49 Research. "The increased energy prices have had benefits for some provinces, while the tariffs have been hardest on Ontario and Quebec due to the exposure in the manufacturing sector."
Newfoundland and Labrador is once again anticipated to lead the country in growth for a second consecutive year, driven by higher oil prices, but the region is expected to face headwinds from a relatively senior population and weak migration trends. GDP is anticipated to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2026.
Tourism remains a major driver of Prince Edward Island's economy, while investment in that industry will also support economic activity in 2026. In the coming years, growth will be supported by the region's growing aerospace, advanced manufacturing and bioscience industries. Prince Edward Island's GDP is forecast to increase 1.6 per cent in 2026.
The resource sector as well as a growing artificial intelligence industry will support Alberta's economy in 2026 and 2027, as the province is expected to realize strong job creation and robust business investment. The province's GDP is expected to increase 1.5 per cent in 2026 and be one of Canada's strongest performers over the remainder of the decade.
Saskatchewan's economy is poised to outperform the national average this year, as potash, energy, uranium and agriculture will all play important roles in the province. Along with Alberta, it is also one of two provinces that isn't expected to see population losses in 2026. GDP is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent this year.
The outlook for British Columbia's economy in the coming years is mixed. Population growth will be constrained by tight housing supply and high cost of living. However, the province has been relatively insulated from the trade dispute with the U.S., while LNG developments and strong trade prospects with Asia will provide important support in the coming years. The province's economy is forecast to grow 1.4 per cent in 2026.
Manitoba's economy will be buoyed by private sector investment, with new mining developments entering critical construction phases over the next two years. Record levels of public spending, particularly in healthcare, will be a strong contributor to job growth. GDP is anticipated to grow 1.2 per cent in 2026.
High energy costs in Nova Scotia will weigh on household spending, but the province will see strong infrastructure spending and an optimistic outlook for seafood exports will support stronger growth in 2027. The province's GDP is forecast to increase 1.2 per cent in 2026.
Employment growth will remain moderate in New Brunswick, while overall growth will be supported by public infrastructure projects and the province's tourism sector. However, modest private sector investment will weigh down growth this year and beyond. The province's GDP is forecast to grow 1.0 per cent in 2026.
Exports, employment and investment are expected to rebound in Quebec as trade conditions improve beyond this year. It is forecast to be one of the few provinces to see employment declines, as demographic challenges are among the most pressing in the region. Quebec's GDP is projected to grow 0.7 per cent in 2026.
Ontario was one of the province's hardest hit by the U.S. tariffs, but it is well positioned for a recovery as a strengthening housing market and a more predictable trade landscape should support renewed hiring in the coming years. The stagnant economic backdrop has also caused households to spend cautiously. Ontario is forecast to realize GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent in 2026.
About Signal49 Research
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SOURCE Signal49 Research
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