New Report Shows Canadian Energy Exports Can Cut Global Emissions by Displacing U.S LNG, Coal, and Dirtier Oil Alternatives

OTTAWA, ON, Dec. 9, 2025 /CNW/ - A new report from the Public Policy Forum (PPF), produced in partnership with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce Future of Business Centre, finds that expanding Canada's liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil exports could significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

Refuel: What Canadian LNG and oil exports could mean for global emissions draws on an exclusive new analysis by Navius Research. The study shows that Canadian LNG and oil are highly likely to substitute higher-emitting global alternatives and deliver significant climate benefits. Were Canadian LNG to be used for electricity generation in Japan, South Korea, China or India, it would deliver a 50 percent emissions reduction in replacing domestic coal and a 40 percent reduction were it to displace LNG from the U.S. 

"This analysis represents a win for the economy, Indigenous reconciliation and the environment," said Inez Jabalpurwala, President and CEO of the Public Policy Forum. "The report's conclusions counter the simplistic narrative that more oil and gas equals more emissions. It's more nuanced than that; it matters what they replace, and emissions are counted globally. We need to leverage the economic, strategic, and environmental advantages our products have to offer to ourselves, our allies and the world."

To capture this emissions-reduction opportunity, Refuel authors Mark Cameron and Arash Golshan call for a coordinated national energy-export strategy centred on displacing high-emission fuels abroad, specifically replacing coal use or more emission-intensive LNG in Asia with Canadian LNG and substituting dirtier heavy crudes, such as Venezuelan heavy oil, with cleaner Canadian alternatives. It must also be considered that many export projects in the sector contribute to the Indigenous economic participation cause, unlocking a more equitable and sustainable future. The report recommends deepening Indo-Pacific partnerships to accelerate coal-to-LNG transitions; fast-tracking essential infrastructure; and championing international product-level carbon accounting and production-based intensity standards that acknowledge Canada's environmental advantage. It also calls for pragmatism when it comes to leveraging Canada's oil and gas export potential and not to forfeit crucial economic, strategic, and environmental advantages of those products by prioritizing recognition over actual emissions reduction.

"This report reinforces what we've been saying for years: cleaner energy is Canadian energy," said Candace Laing, President and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. "When our LNG and oil displace higher-emitting alternatives abroad, global emissions go down, not up. Canada has a strategic advantage here, from cleaner production to Indigenous partnerships, but we need a policy environment that allows us to actually compete in global markets."

The report notes that Canadian LNG, particularly from British Columbia, has among the lowest life-cycle emissions in the world, with unprecedented Indigenous participation and support. Thanks to clean hydropower for liquefaction, low formation CO₂, new resources and upstream technologies, tight methane controls and shorter shipping distances to Asia, Canadian LNG carries life-cycle emissions roughly 40 percent lower than U.S. LNG and well below the global average.

If Canada were to build all LNG projects currently in development, reaching 47.6 million tonnes per year of export capacity by 2035, Navius's "most likely" case projects a net global reduction of 40–70 million tonnes of CO₂e annually. That is equivalent to eliminating 6–10 percent of Canada's total annual emissions, or more than the emissions of the entire province of British Columbia. Of course, achieving increased export volumes to unlock this potential is far from guaranteed and needs a new policy framework developed by PPF's Build Big Things Playbook, based on co-ordinated financing, efficient and effective regulatory approvals, enabling critical infrastructure, and increasing Indigenous economic participation.

The report also examines the emissions profile of Canadian oil. Canada's heavy oil, including oil sands and conventional heavy, has seen emissions intensity improve by approximately 30 percent since 2005. When compared to other heavy crudes globally, Canadian heavy oil is already cleaner than major competitors such as Venezuelan heavy crude. Today, Canadian barrels hold an 18–51 kg CO₂e per-barrel advantage, which could grow to 35–68 kg with planned carbon-capture infrastructure. As a result, expanding Canadian heavy oil exports can displace higher-emission imports and drive down global emissions.

"Fossil fuels, including LNG, oil sands and conventional oil, will continue to be part of the world's energy system in the near- to mid-term," the report notes. "As long as that remains true, sourcing those fuels from cleaner suppliers is not only a valid mitigation strategy, our data demonstrates it's also good for the planet."

To download the full report, visit: https://ppforum.ca/publications/refuel-lng-oil-exports/ 

About PPF

The Public Policy Forum works with all levels of government and the public service, the private sector, labour, post-secondary institutions, NGOs and Indigenous groups to improve policy outcomes for Canadians. As a non-partisan, member-based organization, we convene discussions on fundamental policy issues and identify fresh policy thinking. For more than 30 years, PPF has broken down barriers among sectors, contributing to meaningful change that builds a better Canada.

About the Canadian Chamber of Commerce:

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is Canada's largest and most activated business network -- representing over 400 chambers of commerce and boards of trade and more than 200,000 businesses of all sizes, from all sectors of the economy and from every part of the country -- working to create the conditions for our collective success. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is the undisputed champion and catalyst for the future of business success. From working with government on economy-friendly policy to providing services that inform commerce and enable trade, we give each of our members more of what they need to succeed: insight into markets, competitors and trends, influence over the decisions and policies that drive business success, and impact on business and economic performance. 

SOURCE Public Policy Forum

For more information please contact: Rewa Mourad, Strategic Communications and Content Specialist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, 613-614-2970, [email protected]; Alison Uncles, VP of PPF Media + Communications, Public Policy Forum, [email protected]