Much Tougher Targets Needed for a Safe Climate are Economically Affordable,
Even Profitable say Leading Scientists

COPENHAGEN, Dec. 16 /CNW/ - Today Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) launch A Copenhagen Prognosis: towards a safe climate future, a synthesis of the latest science on climate change, environment and development.

The Prognosis will be launched at a press conference at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 15) on Wednesday 16 December at 19:30. Copies will be available in Copenhagen at COP 15 (Bella Centre) and online at

The Prognosis presents a concise diagnosis of the state of the bioshpere and observed trends and offers a treatment plan that is consistent with a 2degreesC warming threshold, equity and economic development. Among it's key conclusions are that:

    -   Emerging scientific results suggest that greenhouse gas (GHG)
        emission reductions targets currently being tabled are not consistent
        with the expressed political will to protect humanity against high
        risks of devastating climate impacts and significant risks of self-
        amplifying global warming.

    -   Based on the available carbon budget, and if we are to have a good
        (75 per cent) chance for warming to stay below 2degreesC, global GHG
        emissions would almost certainly need to decline extremely rapidly
        after 2015, and reach essentially zero by midcentury.

    -   There is no evidence suggesting it is impossible to rise to this
        challenge. To the contrary, the growing body of analytical work
        examining such scenarios at the global and regional level suggest it
        is not only technically feasible but also economically affordable,
        even profitable.

"The Prognosis addresses head on the issue of an equitable deal, and goes on to describe some of the ways in which deep emission cuts are practically and economically feasible, in developed and developing countries," said Professor Johan Rockstrom, executive director, Stockholm Environment Institute.

The Prognosis was developed by a group of the world's leading scientists and researchers on global change, including Professor John Schellnhuber (PIK), Professor Johan Rockstrom (SEI), Professor Nebojsa Nakicenovic (IIASA), Dr Leena Srivastava (TERI) and Professor V. Ramanathan (Scripps Institution of Oceanography). In addition, it has been endorsed by the German Development Institute and leading climate scholars such as Professor Matt England (University of New South Wales) and Professor Jim McCarthy (Harvard).


For further information: For further information: Media contact: Robert Watt, Head of Communications, SEI, +46-73-707-85-89

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