Market Manuscript by Fortress Real Developments reports less than a five per cent chance of a major housing correction in Canada

Robust 50-page analysis covers national trends and Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Winnipeg real estate markets.

TORONTO, March 9, 2015 /CNW/ - Fortress Real Developments today released their semi-annual Market Manuscript. Now issued for the third time, the Market Manuscript – a reasoned, in-depth analysis of available third-party real estate data and projections, delineated by market, and grounded in solid research – has become a go-to source for real estate brokers, investors and lenders across the country.

Written by Ben Myers – an analyst with 15 years of experience researching real estate markets across North America – the Market Manuscript takes a regional look at Canadian real estate. The report carefully assesses both local and national trends, by pulling together the opinions and predictions from notable real estate economists and seasoned market-watchers, supplemented by Fortress' own forecasts and survey results.

"There are a lot of conflicting reports on the real estate market. These studies rely on oversimplified calculations, which lead to misleading results. It is important for both buyers and sellers to know who to trust," says Myers. "That's why we put this Manuscript together: to promote the best analysts, and dispel common misconceptions."

The present Manuscript assesses both the state of Canada's national market, as well as regional markets including: Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Winnipeg – all centres of potential growth in the coming years.

Among the Manuscript highlights:

  • No one thinks there will be a national crash: Despite the predictions of doomsayers, nearly two-thirds of analysts now believe that there is less than a five per cent chance of a housing correction over the next five years. Indeed, RBC Global Asset Management even believes that Canadian house prices are undervalued by four per cent.
  • Analysts disagree on the definition of a housing bubble: Survey results indicate no consensus on the level of price growth that suggests a bubble, with a need for speculative buyers to be included in that definition. Foreign condominium buyers are not bad for Canada, and analysts concur that they will not immediately flee the market should house prices decline drastically.
  • Toronto house prices boom due to lack of supply: The 29,000 housing starts in the Toronto CMA in 2014 represented the second lowest level since 1998. Some analysts calculate the need for 40,000 to 46,000 new housing units per year in the Toronto area to satisfy demographic demand. Future undersupply will continue to drive up residential real estate values.
  • Record setting Calgary market to return to balanced market conditions with oil uncertainty: Completed and unsold housing units fell to their lowest level in more than 25 years in the Calgary CMA in 2014, with just one unsold condominium. The oil price decline has put the brakes on the hot market, but during the last five major oil price declines, new home prices only fell in just two of those instances.
  • Edmonton employment to remain strong: With $5.2 billion worth of construction projects underway downtown, the building industry will stay busy in 2015. Fewer jobs will likely be lost than expected following the oil price weakness. A recent survey indicated that just 16 per cent of oil and gas industry organizations in North American are considering lay-offs.
  • Ottawa is expected to rebalance in 2015:  Although data providers have reported divergent results of year-over-year price growth, the fundamentals – employment growth – are still positive. Condominium apartment prices and absorption should improve, following a rare period of overbuilding and over exuberance in the typically staid market in the nation's capital.
  • Winnipeg was ranked the top housing market in North America: A report called 'Home Price Indices: A Fifty City Comparison – The Best and Worst Housing Markets over the Past Decade' examined 50 major markets in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, and Winnipeg was ranked as the second best housing market overall and the best in North America.

The Market Manuscript is beneficial for anyone looking to invest, buy, sell, or learn more about the market. The full 50-page manuscript, and market-by-market highlights, are available at Fortress - Market Manuscript.


Fortress Real Developments Inc. is a Canadian real estate development company that seeks out and analyzes investment opportunities in major Canadian markets. The company is focused on quality projects with recognizable alpha in residential low-rise, high-rise, commercial and industrial market segments.

For more information on Fortress Real Developments or previous Market Manuscript reports, please visit – Twitter: @FortressRDI @benmyers29

SOURCE Fortress Real Developments

For further information: Media Contact: Michael O'Shaughnessy, Citizen Relations,, P. 416-306-6790


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