- The rate of inflation is expected to hit 7% by 2013
- Gold expected to reach $2,232 by 2013, an increase of 27.1%
MOSCOW, Sept. 26, 2012 /CNW/ - Speaking at a recent conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan, Anatoly Hegai, Analyst of FOREX CLUB, said he expects Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 6% in 2013, while also predicting that the volatility in the economy would continue until the end of the year. This is understood to be mainly due to the continued uncertainty in the Eurozone and a general slowdown in the world economy, putting further pressure on domestic demand, as well as growth in Kazakhstan's loan portfolio.
The current climate indicates that the pace of Kazakhstan's GDP growth in 2012 is unlikely to achieve the previously identified targets of 6.0% - 6.5% and is more likely that the increase in GDP in the current year will be instead around 5.5% - 5.7%.
Anatoly Hegai, Analyst of FOREX CLUB, said: "The current fragile state of the global economy continues to put pressure on the balance of Kazakhstan's payments. Current account surpluses in the second half of 2012 are expected to reach 1.47 to 1.97 billion US dollars against 2.53 billion dollars in the first half. This will see the Tenge potentially reach 149 to 150 against the US dollar. However, the expected reduction of the debt crisis in the Eurozone by 2013 will moderately improve the balance of payments - we expect a surplus of 6 billion US dollars by 2013, from 4.0 to 4.5 billion in 2012."
Hegai went on to suggest that the debt crisis in the Eurozone is likely to ease in early 2013, providing additional support to both the commodity markets and Kazakhstan's economy. He predicted that by the end of 2013 the country's GDP could grow by 6.1% - 6.4% and that the acceleration of inflation is expected to be 6.5% - 7.0% versus 6.0% - 6.2% this year.
Nikolay Ivchenko, Deputy Head of Research of FOREX CLUB, also speaking at the conference, said: "One of the most interesting investments right now is gold. The introduction of new stimulus measures by the US central bank could very well increase the price of gold to $1,800 by the end of 2012, up 2.5% from its current level.
"Our experience has shown that following individual rounds of quantitative easing in the U.S., the price of gold continues to rise with an appreciation potential of around 25%. We would therefore expect to see gold reach $2,232 by the beginning of 2013, an increase of 27.1%. With no VAT on cash transactions of gold in Kazakhstan, this makes it an attractive investment opportunity to the public."
The views expressed in this release are for information purposes only and do not constitute the provision of investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation or an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or services.
About the Speakers
Nikolay Ivchenko has been working in FOREX CLUB Group of Companies since 2004 and has been Deputy Head of Research since 2010. >From 2003 to 2004, Nikolay was a senior lecturer at the Department of Finance of the Crimean Institute of Business. Prior to 2003, he worked as an economist in Russian investment companies. Mr Ivchenko specialises in fundamental analysis, analysis of the situation in the world economy and Ukraine's economy, as well as the dynamics of the exchange rates of major currency pairs. In addition, Nikolay analyses the metals market and the U.S. stock market.
In 2003-2004 Nikolay completed courses for securities brokers. Between 2001 and 2003 he was a postgraduate student of Orenburg State University. He graduated from Orenburg State University with a Bachelor Degree in Banking.
Anatoly Hegai has been working in FOREX CLUB Group of Companies since 2007, and since 2011 has been working as an Analyst. Anatoly specialises in analysing the situation in the world economy and the economy of Kazakhstan, dynamics of the major currency pairs and the grain market. He also analyses the dynamics of quotations on the Asian stock markets.
In 2007 he passed a number of additional training courses on the financial markets, achieving an Analyst qualification. Prior to that, he studied at the Department of Management at the Tashkent Road Institute.
About FOREX CLUB Group of Companies
FOREX CLUB Group of Companies was founded in 1997 and is one of the leading global online trading and forex brokers. FOREX CLUB provides efficient access to trading in the financial markets to hundreds of thousands of clients in more than 120 countries in the world, as well as providing specialised education in online trading and regular financial analytics through its partner, the International Academy of Investment and Trading.
The structure of the group of companies includes, among other businesses, our broker in the Russian Federation, LLC FOREX CLUB (FFMS licence number 004857) and our international broker, FOREX CLUB INTERNATIONAL LIMITED.
FOREX CLUB is one of the principal founders and participants of CRFIN, a self-regulatory organisation established to develop an effective model of forex market regulation in the Russian Federation.
SOURCE: Forex Club
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