Canadian Housing Starts Trend Decreases in October

OTTAWA, Nov. 8, 2018 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 206,171 units in October 2018, compared to 207,809 units in September 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"The national trend in housing starts declined for a fourth consecutive month in October, which leaves the trend at its lowest level since February 2017," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "However, despite declining for several months, the trend remains slightly above its long-run average because it follows historically elevated levels of activity in 2017."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended lower in October 2018 as fewer projects in both the single-detached and multi-family sectors got underway across the region.  Construction activity for the month was concentrated in the City of Vancouver, which accounted for over half of all starts with several major projects. With the resale home market softening over the course of 2018, new home construction for the year is on track to be slightly below the total for 2017.

Victoria
Metro Victoria housing starts trended lower in October, bringing year-to-date totals six per cent below the record-setting level of 2017. The year-over-year changes in October housing starts are large, due to the timing of major apartment projects. The trend in housing starts remains elevated overall.

Calgary
The housing starts trend in Calgary decreased in October from last month. The pull back in new construction was largely driven by lower apartment starts, as inventory levels for apartment units remain elevated. However, on a year-to-date basis, total housing starts in October were three per cent above last year at this time.

Regina
The trend measure of housing starts rose in October after local homebuilders increased production of apartment units. Nonetheless, the overall pace of new home construction in Regina is significantly below last year's level, especially in the single-detached sector where elevated new inventory has slowed production. Multi-family construction through October was down by 34% compared with the same period of 2017.

Toronto
Total housing starts trended higher in October on the heels of strong multi-family dwelling starts. Strong pre-construction sales of more affordable townhomes and condominium apartments over the past two years continue to lead to housing starts in 2018.  Meanwhile, the downward trend in single-detached home starts continued through October to its lowest level this year, mirroring the slowdown in their pre-construction sales over the past 12 months. Rising cost of land and lack of serviceable land have hampered new sales centre openings in recent years, thus resulting in fewer starts.

London
The trend measure of housing starts moved lower in October by nearly 10%. This month's pullback was a result of fewer apartment projects starting and the continued slowdown in single-detached starts. The number of single-detached homes completed and unsold has trended up in 2018, which is likely resulting in fewer starts as builders can satisfy a portion of demand from existing inventories.

Belleville
The trend in total housing starts stood at a five-month high in October. The pace of new residential construction increased for both single-detached and multi-unit dwellings. One third of the total starts were rental apartments. Currently, all apartments under construction are purpose-built rentals, and represent 35% of total units under construction. Declining vacancy rates encouraged builders to build more rental units.

Montréal
Total housing starts in the Montréal area since the beginning of 2018 show a very slight increase. The aging of the population continues to fuel seniors' housing construction. The relatively low vacancy rates on the rental market also stimulated the construction of rental units in the metropolitan area.

Trois-Rivières
Housing starts in the Trois-Rivières area trended higher in October 2018. Condominium and rental housing construction accounted for this growth, including the start of construction on a 118-unit seniors' housing project. The decrease in the inventory of unabsorbed new condominiums along with employment growth contributed to supporting the need for new units in this market segment, while the aging of the population continued to stimulate demand for seniors' housing.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 205,925 units in October, up from 189,730 units in September. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 8.6% in October to 191,964 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 16.8% to 145,442 units in October while single-detached urban starts decreased by 10.7% to 46,522 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13,961 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		October 2017	October 2018	%	October 2017	October 2018	%	October 2017	October 2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		56	50	-11	60	22	-63	116	72	-38
P.E.I.		35	24	-31	21	15	-29	56	39	-30
N.S.		99	99	-	80	75	-6	179	174	-3
N.B.		70	47	-33	171	123	-28	241	170	-29
Atlantic		260	220	-15	332	235	-29	592	455	-23
Qc		613	527	-14	3,983	3,672	-8	4,596	4,199	-9
Ont.		1,906	1,698	-11	3,109	5,815	87	5,015	7,513	50
Man.		223	171	-23	184	258	40	407	429	5
Sask.		162	101	-38	270	415	54	432	516	19
Alta.		1,083	755	-30	1,319	682	-48	2,402	1,437	-40
Prairies		1,468	1,027	-30	1,773	1,355	-24	3,241	2,382	-27
B.C.		836	652	-22	3,707	1,834	-51	4,543	2,486	-45
Canada (10,000+)		5,083	4,124	-19	12,904	12,911	0	17,987	17,035	-5
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		25	23	-8	95	123	29	120	146	22
Barrie		75	11	-85	50	9	-82	125	20	-84
Belleville		37	60	62	23	53	130	60	113	88
Brantford		12	15	25	0	74	##	12	89	##
Calgary		385	273	-29	568	413	-27	953	686	-28
Edmonton		413	306	-26	397	182	-54	810	488	-40
Greater Sudbury		9	17	89	4	0	-100	13	17	31
Guelph		17	8	-53	24	105	338	41	113	176
Halifax		76	39	-49	70	51	-27	146	90	-38
Hamilton		51	39	-24	90	293	226	141	332	135
Kelowna		70	33	-53	101	29	-71	171	62	-64
Kingston		14	17	21	14	25	79	28	42	50
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		80	103	29	103	20	-81	183	123	-33
Lethbridge		43	25	-42	79	12	-85	122	37	-70
London		144	89	-38	42	126	200	186	215	16
Moncton		30	15	-50	140	92	-34	170	107	-37
Montréal		248	211	-15	3,180	2,580	-19	3,428	2,791	-19
Oshawa		61	141	131	258	290	12	319	431	35
Ottawa-Gatineau		308	309	0	318	1,187	273	626	1,496	139
Gatineau		55	27	-51	42	57	36	97	84	-13
Ottawa		253	282	11	276	1,130	309	529	1,412	167
Peterborough		22	6	-73	4	27	##	26	33	27
Québec		56	75	34	273	303	11	329	378	15
Regina		48	26	-46	101	109	8	149	135	-9
Saguenay		25	17	-32	27	38	41	52	55	6
St. Catharines-Niagara		77	113	47	198	100	-49	275	213	-23
Saint John		14	6	-57	4	0	-100	18	6	-67
St. John's		37	35	-5	42	19	-55	79	54	-32
Saskatoon		92	60	-35	157	286	82	249	346	39
Sherbrooke		22	33	50	91	20	-78	113	53	-53
Thunder Bay		12	12	-	30	0	-100	42	12	-71
Toronto		684	403	-41	1,754	3,316	89	2,438	3,719	53
Trois-Rivières		20	14	-30	29	174	##	49	188	284
Vancouver		368	297	-19	2,534	1,186	-53	2,902	1,483	-49
Victoria		76	60	-21	705	168	-76	781	228	-71
Windsor		52	48	-8	54	28	-48	106	76	-28
Winnipeg		159	123	-23	127	177	39	286	300	5
Total		3,862	3,062	-21	11,686	11,615	-1	15,548	14,677	-6
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.   Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions.   Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC   ## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		September 2018	October 2018	%	September 2018	October 2018	%	September 2018	October 2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		569	508	-11	251	230	-8	820	738	-10
P.E.I.		202	273	35	600	180	-70	802	453	-44
N.S.		1,377	1,205	-12	4,801	936	-81	6,178	2,141	-65
N.B.		566	545	-4	1,084	1,475	36	1,650	2,020	22
Qc		6,425	5,859	-9	27,763	37,281	34	34,188	43,140	26
Ont.		21,475	18,421	-14	53,998	67,247	25	75,473	85,668	14
Man.		2,117	1,946	-8	6,540	3,096	-53	8,657	5,042	-42
Sask.		1,305	1,152	-12	1,512	4,980	229	2,817	6,132	118
Alta.		9,602	8,829	-8	11,039	7,940	-28	20,641	16,769	-19
B.C.		8,479	7,784	-8	16,985	22,077	30	25,464	29,861	17
Canada (10,000+)		52,117	46,522	-11	124,573	145,442	17	176,690	191,964	9
Canada (All Areas)		62,206	56,849	-9	127,523	149,076	17	189,730	205,925	9
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		259	258	0	156	1,476	##	415	1,734	318
Barrie		567	103	-82	204	108	-47	771	211	-73
Belleville		394	568	44	84	636	##	478	1,204	152
Brantford		134	228	70	0	888	##	134	1,116	##
Calgary		2,799	3,098	11	6,648	4,956	-25	9,447	8,054	-15
Edmonton		4,128	3,625	-12	2,724	2,184	-20	6,852	5,809	-15
Greater Sudbury		166	186	12	144	0	-100	310	186	-40
Guelph		124	117	-6	228	1,260	453	352	1,377	291
Halifax		719	499	-31	4,056	612	-85	4,775	1,111	-77
Hamilton		1,411	521	-63	3,552	3,516	-1	4,963	4,037	-19
Kelowna		375	344	-8	372	348	-6	747	692	-7
Kingston		408	306	-25	252	300	19	660	606	-8
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		714	1,038	45	3,312	240	-93	4,026	1,278	-68
Lethbridge		506	296	-42	156	144	-8	662	440	-34
London		1,887	1,072	-43	876	1,512	73	2,763	2,584	-6
Moncton		166	188	13	576	1,104	92	742	1,292	74
Montréal		2,586	2,439	-6	24,561	30,968	26	27,147	33,407	23
Oshawa		1,716	1,224	-29	396	3,480	##	2,112	4,704	123
Ottawa-Gatineau		3,080	3,057	-1	5,568	14,244	156	8,648	17,301	100
Gatineau		391	241	-38	1,536	684	-55	1,927	925	-52
Ottawa		2,689	2,816	5	4,032	13,560	236	6,721	16,376	144
Peterborough		192	88	-54	276	324	17	468	412	-12
Québec		668	933	40	6,240	3,636	-42	6,908	4,569	-34
Regina		348	290	-17	432	1,308	203	780	1,598	105
Saguenay		141	176	25	384	456	19	525	632	20
St. Catharines-Niagara		410	1,067	160	2,448	1,200	-51	2,858	2,267	-21
Saint John		140	90	-36	480	0	-100	620	90	-85
St. John's		422	362	-14	204	228	12	626	590	-6
Saskatoon		806	736	-9	876	3,432	292	1,682	4,168	148
Sherbrooke		492	314	-36	1,728	240	-86	2,220	554	-75
Thunder Bay		138	119	-14	0	0	-	138	119	-14
Toronto		5,418	4,672	-14	36,732	39,792	8	42,150	44,464	5
Trois-Rivières		248	142	-43	360	2,088	480	608	2,230	267
Vancouver		4,170	3,692	-11	10,068	14,232	41	14,238	17,924	26
Victoria		817	712	-13	2,280	2,016	-12	3,097	2,728	-12
Windsor		672	579	-14	372	336	-10	1,044	915	-12
Winnipeg		1,787	1,501	-16	6,228	2,124	-66	8,015	3,625	-55
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.   Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC   ## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

Related Links

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