Canadian Housing Starts Trend decreased in September

OTTAWA, Oct. 10, 2017 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 214,821 units in September 2017, compared to 220,573 units in August 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts Canada - All Areas, September 2017 (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Logo: Government of Canada (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"Housing starts are trending lower in September after increasing for eight consecutive months," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Nevertheless, new home construction remains very strong as the seasonally adjusted number of starts was above 200,000 units for four straight months."

Monthly Highlights

St. John's
Drivers such as population, income and employment have put downward pressure on new home construction activity. Total housing starts fell 34% in September compared to the prior year. Single-detached starts declined 33%, while multiple starts declined 42%.

Prince Edward Island (PEI)
Tightness in PEI's resale sector continues to cause demand to spill over into the Island's new home market. Starts of single-detached homes were up 93% year-to-date in September, with most of the activity concentrated in the Charlottetown area. Record high levels of international migration continue to support starts of multi-family dwellings, which were up 16% year-to-date.

Quebec
In the third quarter of 2017, the annual rate of housing starts for the province overall reached 43,736 units, up from the level registered for the previous quarter (40,564 units). This last result, as were the relatively high totals for the previous quarters, was attributable to the strong momentum observed in the multi-unit housing segment, particularly in the case of rental apartments, for which starts remained significant in the Montréal and Québec areas. Given the strong activity observed so far, Quebec starts will likely post a gain in 2017.

Toronto
Homebuilders broke ground on fewer homes in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) during September 2017. Total housing starts trended lower by 7 % in September from the previous month led by lower apartment starts. Monthly variations in high-rise starts are typical given delays in getting large scale projects off the ground. Low-rise starts remained strong. The overall pace of new home construction remains stable as strong demand for new homes in the Toronto CMA continues to persist.

Brantford
Single-detached starts were high in Brantford in September. New single-detached homes in Brantford were selling for $550,000 to $700,000 early this year, attracting the growing number of households from Hamilton and the GTA who could no longer afford detached homes in their markets.

London
Both single-detached and multiple housing starts in London CMA posted the highest levels for the month of September since 2006. Strong population growth and recent income gains have strengthened demand for new single-detached homes – encouraging builders to continue to keep single-detached starts elevated over recent months.

Saskatoon
Total housing starts trended lower in September after production of both single-detached and multi-family units slowed. While the pace of construction in the singles sector has been on par with last year, multi-family construction was down 30% after nine months this year. Elevated inventory of completed and unsold condo apartments have remained a drag on this sector. All told, total year-to-date housing starts in September were down 13%, compared to the same period a year ago.

Vancouver
Housing starts in the Vancouver CMA trended downwards in September as fewer multi-family home projects got underway. The high level of housing starts over the past year has led to a record number of units being under construction in the region, leaving little spare capacity to start additional projects. New home construction in the Vancouver CMA is being supported by population growth, a strong local economy, and low financing costs.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 217,118 units in September, down from 225,918 units in August. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 5.1 per cent in September to 198,910 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 10.7 per cent to 131,388 units in September. Single-detached urban starts increased by 8.2 per cent, to 67,522 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,208 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Additional data is available upon request. 

Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		September 2016	September 2017	%	September 2016	September 2017	%	September 2016	September 2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		87	63	-28	15	16	7	102	79	-23
P.E.I.		26	42	62	32	51	59	58	93	60
N.S.		128	141	10	331	306	-8	459	447	-3
N.B.		71	97	37	209	218	4	280	315	13
Atlantic		312	343	10	587	591	1	899	934	4
Qc		771	751	-3	3,950	4,212	7	4,721	4,963	5
Ont.		2,423	2,594	7	3,291	3,854	17	5,714	6,448	13
Man.		181	267	48	215	210	-2	396	477	20
Sask.		206	176	-15	166	113	-32	372	289	-22
Alta.		1,075	1,209	12	1,264	1,184	-6	2,339	2,393	2
Prairies		1,462	1,652	13	1,645	1,507	-8	3,107	3,159	2
B.C.		1,003	1,003	-	2,979	2,263	-24	3,982	3,266	-18
Canada (10,000+)		5,971	6,343	6	12,452	12,427	0	18,423	18,770	2
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		31	40	29	31	134	332	62	174	181
Barrie		55	39	-29	237	16	-93	292	55	-81
Belleville		**	60	##	**	10	##	**	70	##
Brantford		12	36	200	39	0	-100	51	36	-29
Calgary		391	465	19	814	449	-45	1,205	914	-24
Edmonton		469	453	-3	353	631	79	822	1,084	32
Greater Sudbury		19	17	-11	12	6	-50	31	23	-26
Guelph		26	19	-27	47	38	-19	73	57	-22
Halifax		66	76	15	318	280	-12	384	356	-7
Hamilton		33	70	112	106	78	-26	139	148	6
Kelowna		76	91	20	49	338	##	125	429	243
Kingston		19	32	68	0	47	##	19	79	316
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		175	101	-42	256	385	50	431	486	13
Lethbridge		**	44	##	**	20	##	**	64	##
London		136	175	29	42	182	333	178	357	101
Moncton		26	34	31	170	118	-31	196	152	-22
Montréal		266	310	17	2,684	2,713	1	2,950	3,023	2
Oshawa		44	90	105	136	411	202	180	501	178
Ottawa-Gatineau		328	318	-3	591	489	-17	919	807	-12
	Gatineau	97	73	-25	109	56	-49	206	129	-37
	Ottawa	231	245	6	482	433	-10	713	678	-5
Peterborough		63	26	-59	6	8	33	69	34	-51
Québec		93	64	-31	641	869	36	734	933	27
Regina		55	56	2	70	96	37	125	152	22
Saguenay		17	17	-	29	8	-72	46	25	-46
St. Catharines-Niagara		112	86	-23	47	85	81	159	171	8
Saint John		12	18	50	5	63	##	17	81	376
St. John's		73	49	-33	12	7	-42	85	56	-34
Saskatoon		128	95	-26	80	6	-93	208	101	-51
Sherbrooke		38	22	-42	34	41	21	72	63	-13
Thunder Bay		15	17	13	6	24	300	21	41	95
Toronto		1,001	1,080	8	1,568	1,900	21	2,569	2,980	16
Trois-Rivières		28	22	-21	70	15	-79	98	37	-62
Vancouver		512	501	-2	2,578	1,072	-58	3,090	1,573	-49
Victoria		89	62	-30	175	538	207	264	600	127
Windsor		81	66	-19	35	24	-31	116	90	-22
Winnipeg		158	225	42	190	189	-1	348	414	19
Total		4,647	4,876	5	11,431	11,290	-1	16,078	16,166	1
Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
** Belleville and Lethbridge were not metropolitan areas in 2016.
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		August 2017	September 2017	%	August 2017	September 2017	%	August 2017	September 2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		571	611	7	540	210	-61	1,111	821	-26
P.E.I.		321	328	2	204	612	200	525	940	79
N.S.		1,463	1,300	-11	1,767	3,515	99	3,230	4,815	49
N.B.		681	748	10	345	2,492	##	1,026	3,240	216
Qc		6,431	7,363	14	31,894	32,870	3	38,325	40,233	5
Ont.		25,653	28,193	10	66,952	46,699	-30	92,605	74,892	-19
Man.		2,221	3,066	38	4,428	2,520	-43	6,649	5,586	-16
Sask.		2,167	1,874	-14	4,224	1,356	-68	6,391	3,230	-49
Alta.		13,091	13,502	3	11,363	14,181	25	24,454	27,683	13
B.C.		9,834	10,537	7	25,408	26,933	6	35,242	37,470	6
Canada (10,000+)		62,433	67,522	8	147,125	131,388	-11	209,558	198,910	-5
Canada (All Areas)		74,713	81,224	9	151,204	135,895	-10	225,918	217,118	-4
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		452	379	-16	720	1,608	123	1,172	1,987	70
Barrie		432	496	15	0	192	##	432	688	59
Belleville		568	714	26	120	120	-	688	834	21
Brantford		167	346	107	348	0	-100	515	346	-33
Calgary		4,337	5,118	18	5,052	5,388	7	9,389	10,506	12
Edmonton		6,085	5,083	-16	4,668	7,572	62	10,753	12,655	18
Greater Sudbury		102	134	31	228	72	-68	330	206	-38
Guelph		171	180	5	120	456	280	291	636	119
Halifax		789	667	-15	1,584	3,360	112	2,373	4,027	70
Hamilton		1,133	831	-27	3,504	936	-73	4,637	1,767	-62
Kelowna		579	930	61	5,328	4,056	-24	5,907	4,986	-16
Kingston		348	372	7	228	564	147	576	936	63
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		924	981	6	6,516	4,620	-29	7,440	5,601	-25
Lethbridge		505	459	-9	792	240	-70	1,297	699	-46
London		2,095	1,984	-5	2,244	2,184	-3	4,339	4,168	-4
Moncton		226	338	50	144	1,416	##	370	1,754	374
Montréal		2,634	3,126	19	11,633	32,774	182	14,267	35,900	152
Oshawa		1,153	1,087	-6	2,112	4,932	134	3,265	6,019	84
Ottawa-Gatineau		2,180	2,967	36	7,452	5,868	-21	9,632	8,835	-8
	Gatineau	375	541	44	2,160	672	-69	2,535	1,213	-52
	Ottawa	1,805	2,426	34	5,292	5,196	-2	7,097	7,622	7
Peterborough		236	336	42	324	96	-70	560	432	-23
Québec		823	690	-16	6,948	10,428	50	7,771	11,118	43
Regina		715	675	-6	2,376	1,152	-52	3,091	1,827	-41
Saguenay		217	184	-15	144	96	-33	361	280	-22
St. Catharines-Niagara		1,155	975	-16	708	1,020	44	1,863	1,995	7
Saint John		176	168	-5	0	756	##	176	924	425
St. John's		439	463	5	336	84	-75	775	547	-29
Saskatoon		1,192	973	-18	1,716	72	-96	2,908	1,045	-64
Sherbrooke		183	189	3	144	492	242	327	681	108
Thunder Bay		140	142	1	288	288	-	428	430	0
Toronto		9,194	12,325	34	44,700	22,800	-49	53,894	35,125	-35
Trois-Rivières		165	254	54	2,148	180	-92	2,313	434	-81
Vancouver		4,780	5,344	12	16,212	12,864	-21	20,992	18,208	-13
Victoria		770	662	-14	1,440	6,456	348	2,210	7,118	222
Windsor		798	724	-9	612	288	-53	1,410	1,012	-28
Winnipeg		1,709	2,656	55	4,296	2,268	-47	6,005	4,924	-18
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value.

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

For English inquires: Angelina Ritacco, CMHC Media Relations, 416-218-3320, [email protected]; For French inquires: Audrey-Anne Coulombe, CMHC Media Relations, 613-748-2573, [email protected]