Canada must prepare for a 5°C hotter future and act now to avoid worst impacts: new federal report

Latest scientific assessment shows rapidly cutting global emissions could contain the damage and avoid devastating weather extremes, including 10° C of winter warming in parts of Northern Canada

TORONTO, Sept. 3, 2026 /CNW/ -- Ryan Ness, Adaptation Research Director at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the publication of Canada's Changing Climate Report, a comprehensive scientific assessment of climate change in Canada by more than 100 academics and experts:

"Canadians must prepare for decades of more severe wildfire seasons, more extreme heat days, rising seas, thawing permafrost, and diminishing water resources due to glacier loss. That's the grim takeaway from the latest edition of Canada's Changing Climate Report, a comprehensive federal scientific assessment released today.

"The report shows Canada must brace--and actively prepare--for the inevitable impacts ahead, while accelerating efforts to prevent warming that isn't yet locked in. The expert assessment finds Canada will be about 2.7° C warmer than pre-industrial levels over this decade and the next, close to twice the global average, regardless of actions taken to reduce global emissions over that time.

"Warming is amplified in Canada because northern latitudes absorb and hold onto heat as reflective snow and ice melt away. Even in a world that reaches net zero emissions by mid-century, warming in Canada is expected to climb to 3.5° C over pre-industrial levels before stabilizing near 2100. That means the best-case scenario requires planning for decades of worsening wildfires, droughts, storms and damage from extreme weather. 

"But what comes after 2040 is still a choice: this report describes physics, not fate. The most optimistic future where Canada's warming levels off around 3.5 degrees depends on the world reaching net zero in the 2070s. Current global policies do not get us there. Continuing down the path we're on, Canada will face average temperature increases of 5° C by 2100, and still be warming. In that scenario, glaciers in Western Canada would virtually disappear; winter warming would top 10 degrees across much of Nunavut and Nunavik; and the southern Prairies will face up to five times as many severe droughts compared to today. If, instead, global emissions begin declining immediately and reach net zero in the 2070s, average warming in Canada would level out at 3.5° C.  

"The gap between these two futures is enormous, and the difference will be measured in lives lost, homes destroyed, and communities and livelihoods damaged beyond recognition. In dollar figures, our research estimates the cost to Canada's economy at hundreds of billions of dollars a year by 2100.

"Adapting now can limit damage from the warming that is already locked in--and it will pay for itself many times over. Every dollar invested in preparing infrastructure, communities and businesses for floods, heat, and heavy rain returns up to $15 in avoided losses, according to our analysis. Cutting emissions in Canada and around the globe will decide the rest, including whether Canadians have to live with the consequences of more than 5° C of warming or 3.5° C.

"Current government action is not keeping pace with the speed of climate change. Ottawa's own progress report on its National Adaptation Strategy shows the country is not prepared for the risks ahead. And recent shifts in federal policy have put Canada's net-zero commitment further out of reach, while undermining our credibility to press other countries for the emissions reductions we need to stave off 5° C of heating.

"This report should concern every decision-maker in Canada. All orders of government should significantly accelerate both emissions reductions and adaptation, because the current level of effort is nowhere near enough to prepare us for what is coming."

RESOURCES

• Report | Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada
• Report | Prepare or Repair: How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off
• Report | Building Strength Through Shelter: Policy prescriptions for Indigenous Healthy Energy Homes
• Fact Sheet | Climate change and wildfires
• Fact Sheet | Climate change and flooding
• Fact Sheet | Climate change and heat waves

About the Canadian Climate Institute
The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada's leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada's net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.
climateinstitute.ca

SOURCE Canadian Climate Institute

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time), Lead, Communications & External Relations, [phone]; Krystal Northey (Mountain Time), Lead, Public Affairs, Canadian Climate Institute, [phone]