MONTREAL, May 8, 2013 /CNW/ - The ongoing recovery in the U.S. that is
forecast to pick up steam in 2013 will drive Quebec's exports to grow
by 8 per cent in 2013 and a further 6 per cent in 2014, according to
Export Development Canada's (EDC) Global Export Forecast.
EDC's Chief Economist, Peter Hall, was in Montreal today to deliver his
provincial export forecast to a breakfast audience at the World Trade
"The U.S. buys two-thirds of all Quebec exports, and with their recovery
gaining momentum through 2013, we're looking at a solid export increase
after a few years of low export growth," Mr. Hall said. "Also on the
plus side are production increases in the mining industry and higher
aerospace sales. All told, Quebec's export sales are heading north,
with help from our southern neighbors."
Mr. Hall's forecast for the U.S. economy is predicated upon the view
that there is significant private sector momentum despite the fiscal
drag. The housing market has finally returned to balance as the
excesses of the last cycle have been soaked up over the past few years
and now prices have firmed and housing starts are soaring.
"U.S. consumers are also spending, particularly on larger goods, and
businesses, who are now running out of productive capacity, are
beginning to spend the mountain of cash that has built up," said Mr.
The industrial goods sector, which includes ores, minerals and metals
exports, accounts for approximately 38 per cent of the province's
exports. EDC's forecast for this sector calls for export growth of 7
and 2 per cent in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
"Despite regulatory headwinds in the form of changes to the Quebec
mining regime, the metals and mining industry remains a key contributor
to Quebec's overall export performance. Exports are poised to rebound
following a disappointing 2012 that was caused, in part, by sluggish
prices. Looking forward, both demand and prices will be up in 2013."
The transportation sector is another important contributor to Quebec's
export picture, contributing approximately 12 per cent of the
province's total. EDC's forecast predicts the sector will grow by 13
per cent this year and 16 per cent in 2014.
"Aerospace exports will be the main driver in Quebec's transportation
story," said Mr. Hall. "The ongoing global recovery and rapid growth in
air travel in emerging markets is particularly well suited to
Bombardier's product mix. The environment for business jets is also
beginning to stabilize, as are commercial aircraft orders. The CSeries
will be coming online to boost the sector's exports sales even further
Quebec's exports to emerging markets accounted for 13 per cent of the
province's total in 2012, up from 9 per cent in 2008. China is the
second largest export destination (after the US), accounting for 4% of
Quebec's exports. Industrial goods represent make up a large share of
exports to emerging markets.
Nationally, Canadian merchandise exports are forecast to rise 8.6 per
cent in 2013 and 5 per cent in 2013, while economic growth (GDP) is
expected to rise 2.2 per cent this year and 1.9 next year. EDC is
forecasting global growth of 3.6 per cent in 2013 and 4.2 per cent in
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including market- and sector-specific insights to
help Canadian exporting companies grow their international and minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. Read EDC's Global Export Forecast.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 7,400 Canadian companies and their global customers in up
to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining
and a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE: Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada