OTTAWA, Oct. 29, 2013 /CNW/ - A new forecast by Export Development
Canada (EDC), the country's leading financier and insurer of exporting
companies, predicts that the world's economy has finally found its feet
in a sustainable manner, setting the stage for the next global economic
EDC forecasts that Canada's exports will rise 5.3 per cent in 2014
following a 4.4 per cent increase this year, with the forestry,
aircraft and machinery industries faring well.
"Conditions are already ripe for decent Canadian export growth. The
loonie is weakening, our dominant export market is leading the global
growth story, key leading exports are already surging, and demand for
resources remains strong," said Peter Hall, Chief Economist at EDC.
"Global growth is being stoked by two key drivers: a groundswell of
pent-up demand and the return of a long-lost friend: confidence,"
explained Mr. Hall.
The forecast is taking its cues from key indicators that cut across a
broad swath of regions and industries in the developed world. The OECD
leading indicator now boasts twelve successive monthly increases. Japan
recently posted a six-month run of GDP growth that is stoking optimism
in their trading partners. The EU has recently broken out of its
Mr. Hall, a longtime US bull, emphasized that the US is the furthest
along the recovery road, and that government fiscal drag has been
masking strong private-sector success. He suggested that the US housing
market is an excellent, but not isolated, example of broader pent-up
demand following five lean years of working off excesses.
The forecast also suggests that the near-global surge of confidence is a
catalytic sign of sustainable recovery. "Confidence is an element that
crisis robbed from the economy for an unusually drawn-out period, but
it's now back in a big way," Mr. Hall added.
"Confidence is rising in, of all places, Japan and Europe, and in the US
after three failed post-crisis attempts. US confidence has conclusively
burst out of an extremely rare four-and-a-half-year recessionary funk.
We believe this could be the conclusive push that will give global
commercial activity the biggest lift it has seen since 2007."
EDC projects global growth to increase to 3.9 per cent in 2014, a solid
step toward a sustained new growth cycle following two years of 3.2 per
cent growth. For the first time in a long while, industrialized markets
are forecast to contribute more to world GDP growth than the emerging
world. Led by the US, industrialized markets will almost double this
year's growth in 2014, notching up an increase of 2.3 per cent.
"The path to more sustained growth will not likely be smooth, but as in
all recovery periods, growth is more than likely to surprise on the
upside," said Mr, Hall." We believe it's here and here to stay. Is
your company ready to start running?"
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange
rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
The forecast is available on EDC's website: GEF Forecast.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, providing financing and insurance
solutions locally and around the world to help Canadian companies of
any size respond to international business opportunities. As a
profitable Crown corporation that operates on commercial principles,
EDC works together with private- and public- sector financial
institutions to create greater capacity for Canadian companies to
engage in trade and investment.
For more information about how EDC can help your company, visit www.edc.ca
SOURCE: Export Development Canada
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