Net Present Value of Reserves Increased by 35% (Proved) & 29% (Proved plus Probable)
CALGARY, March 14, 2012 /CNW/ - Stream Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSX-V: SKO) ("Stream" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results of its November 30, 2011, independent reserves evaluation. Evaluations were conducted by AJM Deloitte ("AJM"), Stream's independent reserve evaluators, in accordance with the provisions of National Instrument 51-101 ('NI51-101') and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook ("COGEH").
In 2011, Stream's development was impacted by funding constraints as a result of the global financial crisis. In this environment, the Company's business strategy focused primarily on cash flow generation and planning for reserves conversion, resulting in a fairly consistent reserve profile year-over-year.
2011 Total Reserves Summary (Net Share to Stream)
- Reserves remained fairly consistent with 2010 amounts:
- Total proved reserves increased slightly to 14.5 MMboe from 14.3 MMboe in 2010
- Proved plus probable reserves increased slightly to 18.8 MMboe from 18.7 MMboe in 2010
- Possible reserves declined by 2% to 16.4 MMBoe from 16.7 MMboe in 2010
- Proved reserves comprise 77% of total proved plus probable reserves
- Proved reserve life index ("RLI") is approximately 18+ years and proved plus probable RLI is 23+ years, based on gross average production of approximately 2,500 boed
- Reserve value increased 35% from year-end 2010 on a total proved basis & 29% on a total proved and probable basis, discounted at 10% after tax
All of Stream's 2011 reserves estimates are based on conventional primary recovery methods only and does not include upside potential for the following:
- Petroleum Agreements' provisions for neutralizing the 10% mineral tax of nearly US$30 million (before tax);
- Gorisht-Kocul oilfield waterflood or future enhanced oil recovery potential;
- Ballsh-Hekal and Cakran-Mollaj oilfield infill drilling or enhanced oil recovery ("EOR") potential;
- Delvina gas field horizontal well development potential;
- Contingent resource conversions.
"We're pleased with the results of our reserves evaluation," said Dr. Sotirios Kapotas, President and CEO. "With the financing challenges of 2011 behind us, we are poised to move forward with the implementation of our development plans over 2012, focused on increasing production and capturing additional reserves through primary and secondary techniques."
Summary of Estimated Reserve Volumes
2011 | ||||||||||||||||||
Oil | Natural Gas | NGL | Total | |||||||||||||||
November 30, |
Gross (MBbl) |
Net (MBbl) |
Gross (MMcf) |
Net (MMcf) |
Gross (MBbl) |
Net (MBbl) |
Gross (MBoe) |
Net (MBoe) |
||||||||||
Proved | ||||||||||||||||||
Producing | 10,781.2 | 8,185.6 | - | - | - | - | 10,781.2 | 8,185.6 | ||||||||||
Non-producing | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||
Undeveloped | 5,618.8 | 5,623.7 | 3,960.2 | 3,492.3 | 137.9 | 118.0 | 6,416.7 | 6,323.7 | ||||||||||
Total Proved | 16,400.0 | 13,809.3 | 3,960.2 | 3,492.3 | 137.9 | 118.0 | 17,197.9 | 14,509.3 | ||||||||||
Probable | 4,047.3 | 3,993.0 | 1,354.4 | 1,245.9 | 114.6 | 111.2 | 4,387.6 | 4,311.8 | ||||||||||
Total Proved + Probable |
20,447.3 | 17,802.3 | 5,314.6 | 4,738.2 | 252.5 | 229.1 | 21,585.5 | 18,821.1 | ||||||||||
Possible | 5,332.6 | 5,308.3 | 48,397.6 | 48,253.2 | 3,043.9 | 3,036.4 | 16,442.7 | 16,386.9 | ||||||||||
Total Proved + Probable + Possible |
25,779.9 | 23,110.5 | 53,712.2 | 52,991.4 | 3,296.3 | 3,265.5 | 38,028.2 | 35,207.9 |
(1) | Forecast prices and costs; numbers may not add due to rounding. |
(2) | Gross reserves are the total of the Company's working interest share before deduction of royalties and other government share. Net reserves are gross reserves net of royalty interests owned by others. |
Net Reserves by Field (MBoe) | |||||||||||
2011 | 2010 | ||||||||||
Ballsh | Cakran | Gorisht | Delvina | Total | Total | ||||||
November 30, | Net (MBoe) |
Net (MBoe) |
Net (MBoe) |
Net (MBoe) |
Net (MBoe) |
Net (MBoe) |
% | ||||
Proved | |||||||||||
Producing | 1,369.7 | 2,194.6 | 4,621.3 | - | 8,185.6 | 8,240.1 | (1%) | ||||
Non-producing | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
Undeveloped | 3,199.5 | 961.4 | 1,699.9 | 462.9 | 6,323.7 | 6,085.0 | 4% | ||||
Total Proved | 4,569.2 | 3,156.0 | 6,321.2 | 462.9 | 14,509.3 | 14,325.1 | 1% | ||||
Probable | 1,775.9 | 1,416.8 | 890.8 | 228.3 | 4,311.8 | 4,405.8 | (2%) | ||||
Total Proved + Probable |
6,345.1 | 4,572.9 | 7,212.1 | 691.1 | 18,821.1 | 18,730.9 | - | ||||
Possible | 2,333.2 | 2,139.4 | 986.4 | 10,927.8 | 16,386.8 | 16,711.5 | (2%) | ||||
Total Proved + Probable + Possible |
8,678.3 | 6,712.2 | 8,198.5 | 11,618.9 | 35,207.9 | 35,442.4 | (1%) |
(1) | Forecast prices and costs; numbers may not add due to rounding. |
(2) | Net reserves are gross reserves net of royalty interests owned by others. |
The total proved reserve base is comprised of 96% oil and 4% natural gas. Stream's gross reserves for 2011 decreased slightly due to technical revisions related to Stream's natural gas reserves, but net reserves remained fairly consistent with 2010 amounts. Additions based on economic factors replaced production on a proved and proved plus probable basis by approximately 139% and 129% respectively.
Net Present Value of Reserves
At November 30, 2011, future net revenue from Stream's reserves increased 36% from year-end 2010 on a total proved basis and 30% on a total proved and probable basis, discounted at 10% after tax. The increase in valuations is primarily due to the change in forecast oil prices with AJM's price deck.
2011 | 2010 | % Change | |||||||||||||||
Before Tax | Discount Rate | Discount Rate | |||||||||||||||
December 31 (US$000s) | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% | |||||||||||
Proved | |||||||||||||||||
Producing | $ | 390,593 | $ | 160,804 | $ | 381,730 | $ | 111,370 | 2% | 44% | |||||||
Non-producing | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Undeveloped | 230,842 | 98,318 | 124,440 | 79,190 | 86% | 24% | |||||||||||
Total Proved |
$ | 621,435 | $ | 259,122 | $ | 506,170 | $ | 190,560 | 23% | 36% | |||||||
Probable | 279,633 | 71,876 | 259,330 | 63,640 | 8% | 13% | |||||||||||
Total Proved + Probable |
$ | 901,068 | $ | 330,998 | $ | 765,500 | $ | 254,200 | 18% | 30% | |||||||
Possible | 898,674 | 346,743 | 885,600 | 335,700 | 2% | 3% | |||||||||||
Total Proved + Probable + Possible |
$ | 1,799,742 | $ | 677,741 | $ | 1,651,100 | $ | 589,900 | 9% | 15% |
(1) | Forecast prices and costs; before income taxes; numbers may not add due to rounding. |
2011 | 2010 | % Change | |||||||||||||||
After Tax | Discount Rate | Discount Rate | |||||||||||||||
December 31 (US$000s) | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% | |||||||||||
Proved | |||||||||||||||||
Producing | $ | 199,075 | $ | 88,976 | $ | 196,000 | $ | 67,400 | 2% | 32% | |||||||
Non-producing | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||||
Undeveloped | 121,253 | 54,403 | 63,200 | 38,700 | 92% | 41% | |||||||||||
Total Proved |
$ | 320,328 | $ | 143,379 | $ | 259,200 | $ | 106,100 | 24% | 35% | |||||||
Probable | 138,059 | 35,531 | 127,200 | 32,200 | 9% | 10% | |||||||||||
Total Proved + Probable |
$ | 458,837 | $ | 178,910 | $ | 386,400 | $ | 138,300 | 19% | 29% | |||||||
Possible | 448,580 | 172,614 | 445,800 | 165,500 | (1%) | 4% | |||||||||||
Total Proved + Probable + Possible |
$ | 906,967 | $ | 351,524 | $ | 832,200 | $ | 303,800 | 9% | 16% |
(1) | Forecast prices and costs; after income taxes; numbers may not add due to rounding. |
Future net revenues are calculated based upon estimated revenues less royalties and operating costs. The net present value should not be considered the current market value of Stream's reserves or the costs that would be incurred to obtain equivalent reserves.
The reserve values are based on the table of prices below. Oil prices are the equivalent price of Brent Oil discounted for quality based on local market conditions. Gas prices are based on the contract applicable. Currently, Stream's average sales price for domestic and export sales are approximately 70% of Brent on a consolidated basis.
Price Forecast as at November 30, 2011
Brent Oil | 60% of | Natural Gas(1) | ||||
UK | Brent UK | |||||
($US/bbl) | ($US/bbl) | ($US/mcf) | ||||
2012 | 98.00 | 58.80 | 9.70 | |||
2013 | 107.10 | 64.26 | 9.89 | |||
2014 | 109.25 | 65.55 | 10.09 | |||
2015 | 111.45 | 66.87 | 10.29 | |||
2016 | 113.65 | 68.19 | 10.50 | |||
2017 | 115.95 | 69.57 | 10.71 | |||
2018 | 118.25 | 70.95 | 10.92 | |||
2019 | 120.60 | 72.36 | 11.14 | |||
2020 | 123.00 | 73.80 | 11.37 | |||
2021 | 125.50 | 75.30 | 11.59 | |||
Remaining | + 2.0% | +2.0% | +2.0% |
(1) | Gas pricing based on historical trends and contracted prices provided by Stream. |
(2) | AJM condensate price forecast at 100% of Brent Oil. |
Incremental Contingent Resources
In the previous reserve assessment, AJM assigned contingent resource estimates to the Ballsh-Hekal, Cakran-Mollaj and Gorisht-Kocul oilfields, as well as to the Delvina gas field as of November 30, 2010:
Low | Best | High | |||||||
Oil (Mstb) | |||||||||
Ballsh-Hekal | 1,850 | 7,734 | 29,388 | ||||||
Cakran-Mollaj | 1,899 | 7,554 | 30,055 | ||||||
Gorisht-Kocul | 2,630 | 10,267 | 40,076 | ||||||
Total Oil(1) |
6,379 | 25,555 | 99,519 | ||||||
Gas (MMcf) |
|||||||||
Delvina | 10,596 | 31,238 | 92,092 | ||||||
Total Gas(1) |
10,596 | 31,238 | 92,092 |
(1) | Volumes are an arithmetic sum of multiple estimates of contingent resources, which statistical principles indicate may be misleading as to volumes that may actually be recovered. Readers should give attention to the estimates of individual classes of contingent resources and appreciate the differing probabilities of recovery associated with each. The probability associated with the High estimate would be considered far less likely than P10, and conversely, the Low estimate would be expected to be much higher than the presented arithmetic sum. Probabilistic aggregation could have been performed, but given the lack of general acceptance in these procedures, COGEH (section 5.5.3) prefers that these values not be presented. |
Stream is entitled to 100% interest in these resources, subject to a cost recovery royalty, profit petroleum royalty and mineral taxes of 10%. Contingent resources on the oilfields have been attributed based on the fact that Stream is actively developing a waterflood pilot project in Gorisht-Kocul, and is investigating the effects of waterflood, and further enhanced recovery methods on all three oil fields as demonstrated in recent Project Charters presented. Economic viability has not been demonstrated, and thus, these Contingent Resources are considered sub-commercial, but it is expected that within the next five years these methods may be available for commercial application.
Contingent resources were able to be assigned to the Delvina gas field. This particular reservoir has been penetrated and produced by two long term producing vertical wells, however further resources are contingent on the ability for horizontal well development to access the entire pool. Possible reserves were assigned based on horizontal well development but contingent resources assigned here are indicative of further extension of current development plans beyond the level of certainty seen in reserve assignments. As future development occurs, it is expected that many of these contingent resources will move into the reserve categories based on development results.
Resources Initially-In-Place
In the previous reserve assessment, AJM evaluated resources initially-in-place as of November 30, 2010:
Low | Best | High | |||||
Discovered Oil Initially-in-Place (Mstb) | |||||||
Ballsh-Hekal | 185,035 | 329,783 | 587,765 | ||||
Cakran-Mollaj | 189,864 | 337,824 | 601,090 | ||||
Gorisht-Kocul | 163,014 | 459,144 | 801,528 | ||||
Discovered Gas Initially-in-Place (MMcf) |
|||||||
Delvina(1) | 35,319 | 80,655 | 184,183 | ||||
Undiscovered Gas Initially-in-Place (MMcf) |
|||||||
North Delvina | 22,337 | 51,073 | 116,779 | ||||
South Delvina | 36,656 | 84,925 | 196,754 | ||||
East Delvina | 22,795 | 51,891 | 118,126 | ||||
Total Gas(1) |
81,788 | 187,889 | 431,659 |
(1) | Volumes are an arithmetic sum of multiple estimates of contingent resources, which statistical principles indicate may be misleading as to volumes that may actually be recovered. Readers should give attention to the estimates of individual classes of contingent resources and appreciate the differing probabilities of recovery associated with each. The probability associated with the High estimate would be considered far less likely than P10, and conversely, the Low estimate would be expected to be much higher than the presented arithmetic sum. Probabilistic aggregation could have been performed, but given the lack of general acceptance in these procedures, COGEH (section 5.5.3) prefers that these values not be presented. |
Regarding the oilfields, the assessment does not take into consideration the extent or effect of any gas cap originally or currently in the reservoirs. The Ballsh-Hekal field is composed of two separate structural closures, however it is expected that there is reservoir communication between them. Very limited data is available on this pool but a substantial volume of oil has been produced, and therefore it is reasonable to assume that the in-place volume of oil may be quite large. The geology between the two structures in the Cakran-Mollaj field is yet to be understood due to a lack of information regarding the rock properties and distribution. In addition, there is limited knowledge on the oil water contact and differences in rock properties of the Gorisht-Kocul field, which will be critical to understanding the geometry and potential drainage of the field. Consequently, the range of estimates for the three oilfields is very wide.
AJM reviewed three prospective pools at Delvina for Undiscovered Gas Initially-in-Place. As none of these prospects have been penetrated or tested by a well it is not considered a known accumulation and is therefore undiscovered.
With increased certainty of information in Stream's reservoirs, the production characteristics and opportunity for enhanced recovery techniques could be more thoroughly investigated allowing for a more accurate assessment.
The Company is not aware of any information pending from the date of this release to the effective date that would materially affect the valuation results. Stream's Reserve Committee and Board of Directors have approved the Reserve Report.
Stream's reserve data is subject to and should be read in conjunction with the entire Form 51-101F1 - Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and Gas Information. The Form 51-101F1, Form 51-101F2 - Report of Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluator and Form 51-101F3 - Report of Management and Directors on Oil and Gas Disclosure are expected to be filed with Canadian securities regulators and can be accessed electronically on Stream's website or on the SEDAR website at www.sedar.com.
_______________
Forward-Looking Statements
Information in this news release respecting matters such as plans of development or exploration, reserves estimates, production estimates and targets, development costs, work programs and budgets constitute forward-looking information (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under the meaning of applicable securities laws, including Canadian Securities Administrators' National Instrument 51-102 Continuous Disclosure Obligations. Such forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions, including the availability of funds for capital expenditures necessary to construct the infrastructure required for future development, a favorable political and economic operating environment, a consistent rate of well re-completions and costs, success rates, production performance and build-up periods for well re-completions that are consistent with or an improvement over historical levels.
The forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this release solely for the purpose of generally disclosing Stream's status of its reserve volumes and net present value of its reserves as at November 30, 2011. Investors are cautioned that these forward-looking statements are neither promises nor guarantees, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause future results to differ materially from those expected. Such forward-looking information reflects management's current beliefs and are based on assumptions made by and information currently available to the Company, and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual costs and results of the Company and its operations to be materially different from estimated costs or results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others political and economic risks associated with foreign operations, general risks inherent in petroleum operations, risks associated with equipment procurement and equipment failure, availability of qualified personnel, risks associated with transportation, currency and exchange rate fluctuations and other general risks inherent in oil and gas operations.
Contingent resources disclosed herein represent those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
Although the Company has attempted to take into account important factors that could cause actual costs or results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause costs and timing of the Company's program or results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date hereof and the Company does not assume any obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances except as required under applicable securities legislation.
Use of Boe Equivalents
The oil and gas industry commonly expresses production and reserve volumes on a barrel of oil equivalent (Boe) basis whereby natural gas volumes are converted at the ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil. Boe may be misleading particularly if used in isolation. A Boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
About Stream Oil & Gas Ltd.
Stream Oil & Gas Ltd. is a Canadian-based emerging oil and gas production, development and exploration company focused on the re-activation and re-development of three oilfields and a gas/condensate field in Albania. The Company's strategy is to use proven technology, incremental and enhanced oil recovery techniques to significantly increase production and reserves.
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
For further information:
Dr. Sotirios Kapotas President & Chief Executive Officer
P: (403) 531-2358
James Hodgson, Chief Financial Officer
P: (403) 531-2358
Email [email protected]
Website: www.streamoilandgas.com
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