LONDON & BOSTON, June 24, 2013 /CNW/ - The industry is poised for a
healthier turn after sales declined in 2012, says Evaluate's "World
Preview 2013, Outlook to 2018" report
According to the newly-released World Preview report from market
intelligence firm Evaluate Ltd, the worst of the patent cliff is behind
us. While the pharmaceutical industry is feeling the effects of last
year's decline in performance - with worldwide prescription drug sales
down 1.6%- sales are forecast to start growing slowly in 2013 and then
steadily increase, reaching $895 billion by 2018, according to
Evaluate's report, "World Preview 2013, Outlook to 2018: Returning to Growth."
The sixth-edition World Preview report examines life after the patent
cliff, providing top-level insight from the world's financial markets
into the expected performance of the industry between now and 2018. The
report was released today at the 2013 Drug Information Association
(DIA) Annual Meeting in Boston, USA, and is available as a free
download at http://www.evaluategroup.com/wp2013.
According to the World Preview 2013, the industry will benefit from
improved investor confidence and R&D productivity. Of the $227bn of
global drug sales that will be at risk from generic erosion following
patent expirations, only $110bn is forecast to be lost over the next
five years. The main reason for this is the growing contribution of
biological products to global sales. By 2018, 50% of sales of the top
100 products are predicted to come from biological products which are
expected to experience less sales erosion from biosimilar competition
than traditional small molecules have from generic products.
"The fall in worldwide prescription drug sales in 2012 confirms our
forecast from last year," said Anthony Raeside, Head of Research for
Evaluate. "While patent expirations still threaten to stifle growth,
the market is expected to grow sluggishly in 2013 with a sustained
recovery occurring in 2014."
In addition to assessing trends in prescription drug sales, the World
Preview 2013 report also examines key topics including R&D spending,
therapy category growth, the performance of marketed and pipeline
products, and overall 2012 performance. Among this year's key findings:
Pfizer reigned as the top pharmaceutical company in terms of worldwide
prescription drug sales in 2012, with Novartis directly behind. By
2018, Novartis will take over as the biggest pharmaceutical company for
worldwide prescription drug sales.
Worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend is forecast at $149bn in 2018 growing
at an average annual rate of 1.4% between 2012 and 2018.
Teva Pharmaceuticals remained the leading generic drug maker in 2012.
The anti-coagulant market will grow 11.5% between 2012 and 2018,
achieving the highest worldwide sales growth of major therapy
categories. Meanwhile, within the top 100 prescription products,
biological products are expected to account for more than 50% of sales
Orphan drugs are expected to account for $127bn of sales in 2018, representing 16%
of the entire worldwide prescription market.
AbbeVie's Humira is forecast to be the world's biggest selling product
Gilead's hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, Sofosbuvir, remains the most
valuable R&D product.
For more information on the 2013 Edition of the World Preview report,
visit Evaluate booth #630 at the DIA meeting. The executive summary and
full report are available for download at http://www.evaluategroup.com/wp2013.
About Evaluate Ltd.
Established in 1996, Evaluate Ltd. is the leader in high quality life
science sector analysis. EvaluatePharma delivers exclusive consensus forecasts and trusted commercial insight
into biotech and pharmaceutical performance. EvaluateMedTech sets a new standard in integrated analysis and consensus forecasts of
the global medical device and diagnostic industry. EvaluateClinicalTrials delivers unique intelligence to efficiently and accurately analyze the
global clinical trial landscape. A team of more than 85 dedicated
healthcare analysts employ rigorous methodologies to collate, organize
and deliver the most-up-to-date commercial performance data available.
An award-winning editorial team of journalists writing under the EP
Vantage name support EvaluatePharma's analysis. The Evaluate services
enable the life science community to make sound business decisions
about value and opportunity. For more information please visit http://www.evaluategroup.com. On Twitter: @evaluatepharma, @evaluatemedtech, @epclinicaltrial, @epvantage.
SOURCE: Evaluate Ltd.
For further information:
Evaluate and EP Vantage
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College Hill (for non-US media)
Melanie Toyne Sewell