TORONTO, June 11, 2014 /CNW/ - Despite swings in growth among individual
sectors, Manitoba's economy is expected to remain little changed from
last year, according to the latest RBC Economics Provincial Outlook released today. RBC forecasts 2014 real GDP growth for Manitoba of 2.1
per cent, down marginally from the 2.2 per cent expected in 2013.
RBC notes that the 2013 harvest boosted agricultural output 20.0 per
cent, a much larger output than previously expected. This was, however,
offset by an unexpected 11.0 per cent drop in mining output.
"Manitoba's agriculture and mining sectors will once again offset each
other in 2014 though with areas of strength and weakness reversing. We
expect an 8.0 per cent drop in agriculture and a recovery in the mining
sector as new mining projects begin production," said Craig Wright,
senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC.
The Provincial Outlook indicates that year-over-year growth in
Manitoba's manufacturing sales were up 3.0 per cent in Q1 following
relatively flat activity in 2013. This strengthening largely reflects
improvement in transportation equipment - mainly, bus and aircraft
production along with underlying strength in machinery. RBC anticipates
that a pick-up in growth south of the border and a depreciating
Canadian dollar will provide a further boost to the province's
manufacturing exports for the remainder of this year and through next.
"An area we're closely watching in the Manitoba economy is employment -
we saw some deeper declines in Q1 of this year," said Wright. "We're
attributing some of the slowdown in hiring on adverse weather. So, as
temperatures return to seasonal values, we expect this weakness to
However, RBC forecasts employment will increase only 0.2 per cent this
year. Greater strength will emerge next year with hiring levels
expected to pick up to 1.3 per cent, RBC says.
Manitoba should see accelerated growth of 2.8 per cent in 2015, says
RBC, as the drag from the agriculture sector dissipates and the mining
and manufacturing sectors continue to strengthen.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to
economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales,
housing starts and consumer price indices. The full report and details
are available as of 8 a.m. ET today at rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/provincial-economic-forecasts.html.
For further information:
Craig Wright, RBC Economics Research, 416-974-7457
Paul Ferley, RBC Economics Research, 416-974-7231
Elyse Lalonde, Communications, RBC Capital Markets, 416-842-5635