Natural gas and electricity emerge as pivotal forces shaping Canada's energy future in new energy outlook
CALGARY, AB, March 17, 2026 /CNW/ - Rising electricity demand and the rapid growth of renewables are reshaping Canada's energy system at home, while expanding natural gas production and potential production gains for oil, could strengthen the country's footprint in global markets, according to a new report from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER).
Canada's Energy Future 2026: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050, presents four long‑term scenarios for the country's energy system: Current Measures, Higher, Lower, and Canada Net‑Zero. The Higher and Lower scenarios provide a range around the baseline Current Measures scenario, while the Net‑Zero scenario explores what a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050 might look like.
Electricity becomes increasingly central to how Canadians power their lives, with demand climbing in every scenario as homes, industries and technologies like AI rely more on the grid. Generation grows between 30 per cent and more than double today's levels by 2050, with more than 96 per cent from non or low emitting sources. Electricity trade between provinces also plays a growing role in balancing electricity supply and demand, with interprovincial electricity flows more than doubling in all scenarios.
Natural gas production is set to accelerate in all scenarios over the next 25 years, reaching between 21 and 32 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2050 compared to around 19 Bcf/d in 2025. The scale of production growth, and whether Canada reaches markets beyond the United States, depends heavily on future LNG export capacity. By 2050, about a quarter of total Canadian gas production is tied to LNG exports, making LNG one of the viable pathways for expanding Canada's energy trade outside North America.
Crude oil presents more of a mixed outlook over the long term, with production ranging from a 12 per cent decline to an 18 per cent increase by 2050, depending on several factors, notably global prices. In the higher production‑ scenarios, Canada continues to send most of its oil exports to the U.S. if existing pipeline infrastructure is used much like it is today, as production changes alone do not significantly shift long‑standing export patterns.
In most scenarios, Ontario and Quebec remain reliant on crude oil and natural gas sourced from or transported through the U.S. under current pipeline configurations. Regional energy self-sufficiency in Central Canada could improve in the Canada Net-Zero scenario, with lower fossil fuel consumption and higher use of domestically produced resources like electricity and hydrogen.
As Canada's energy system continues to evolve, national GHG emissions fall across all scenarios. This is driven by a cleaner electricity grid and emissions reductions in most economic sectors. However, emissions plateau around 2035 under current policies. Reaching net zero by 2050 would require an economy-wide transformation towards low carbon technologies, driven by additional climate action.
The CER produces timely, fact-based, and relevant energy analysis to inform the energy conversation in Canada. This long-term Canadian energy outlook covers all energy commodities and every region in Canada, using economic and energy models to explore how different assumptions shape supply and demand to 2050. The results in EF2026 are not predictions about the future, nor are they policy recommendations. Rather, they are the product of scenarios based on a specific premise and set of assumptions. The CER released its first outlook in 1967, and it has continued to explore energy challenges and trends that remain central to Canada's energy conversation more than five decades later.
Report highlights
Quotes
"The results remind us that Canada's energy future isn't fixed. Electricity is poised to play a much larger role, natural gas outcomes are shaped by LNG, and crude oil trade remains closely tied to the U.S. if pipeline usage is much like today's. Meanwhile, we see the prospect of Central Canada continuing to need crude oil and natural gas produced by or transported through the U.S."
Darren Christie
Chief Economist
Canada Energy Regulator
Associated Links
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) works to keep energy moving safely across the country. We review energy development projects and share energy information while enforcing some of the world's strictest safety and environmental standards. To find out how the CER is working for you, visit us online or connect on social media.
SOURCE Canada Energy Regulator
Contacts: Karen Ryhorchuk, Communications Officer, Canada Energy Regulator, Email: [email protected], Telephone: 403-671-9756
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