Housing starts trend higher again in November

OTTAWA, ON, Dec. 15, 2023 /CNW/ - The six-month trend in housing starts was higher in November at 257,777 units, up 0.7% from 255,876 units in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada.

The monthly SAAR of total housing starts for all areas in Canada decreased 22% in November (212,624 units) compared to October (272,264 units).

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC))

The monthly SAAR of total urban (centres 10,000 population and over) housing starts decreased 23%, with 195,363 units recorded. Multi-unit urban starts decreased 27% to 151,297 units, while single-detached urban starts decreased 7% to 44,066 units.

Total SAAR housing starts were down 30% in Montreal and 39% in both Toronto and Vancouver, driven by significant declines in multi-unit starts.

The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 17,261 units.

Quote:

"The notable drop in the rate of housing starts in November, particularly in the multi-unit space, should not come as a major surprise and reflects tighter economic conditions impacting construction timelines. As the more difficult borrowing conditions and labour shortages now seem to be showing in the starts numbers, we can expect to see continued slower starts rates in the coming months," said Kevin Hughes, CMHC's Deputy Chief Economist.

Key Facts:

• Actual 2023 year-to-date housing starts were 17% and 31% higher than the same period in 2022 in Toronto and Vancouver, respectively, driven by higher multi-unit starts.
• Nationally, actual year-to-date housing starts are currently down 8% in centres of 10,000 population and over, currently sitting at 204,721 as of November 2023, compared to 222,177 in November 2022. This decline is primarily explained by a 27% decline in single-detached starts.
• Monthly Housing Starts and Other Construction Data are accessible in English and French on our website and the CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
• Housing starts data is available on the eleventh business day each month. We will release the December housing starts data on January 16 at 8:15 AM ET.
• CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and to obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.
• Definitions and methodology to better understand the foundations of the Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys.

As a trusted source of housing information, CMHC provides unbiased housing-related data, research, and market information to help close knowledge gaps, and deepen understanding of complex housing issues to inform future policy decisions. Housing starts facilitate the analysis of monthly, quarterly, and year-over-year activity in the new home market. The data we collect as part of our Starts and Completions and Market Absorption surveys helps us obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply and is used as part of our various housing reports.

CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to all levels of governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Related Links:

• Spring 2023 Housing Market Outlook
• Housing Supply Report (HSR) — Fall Edition
• Housing shortages in Canada: Updating how much housing we need by 2030

Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		November 2022	November 2023	%	November 2022	November 2023	%	November 2022	November 2023	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		31	37	19	3	25	##	34	62	82
P.E.I.		24	9	-63	84	30	-64	108	39	-64
N.S.		119	124	4	207	903	336	326	1,027	215
N.B.		90	67	-26	555	365	-34	645	432	-33
Atlantic		264	237	-10	849	1,323	56	1,113	1,560	40
Qc		540	363	-33	3,329	2,082	-37	3,869	2,445	-37
Ont.		1,974	1,313	-33	6,885	4,323	-37	8,859	5,636	-36
Man.		188	150	-20	671	461	-31	859	611	-29
Sask.		93	115	24	114	316	177	207	431	108
Alta.		882	1,246	41	1,730	2,129	23	2,612	3,375	29
Prairies		1,163	1,511	30	2,515	2,906	16	3,678	4,417	20
B.C.		587	431	-27	3,149	2,602	-17	3,736	3,033	-19
Canada (10,000+)		4,528	3,855	-15	16,727	13,236	-21	21,255	17,091	-20
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		41	18	-56	22	374	##	63	392	##
Barrie		59	53	-10	490	139	-72	549	192	-65
Belleville - Quinte West		23	35	52	4	110	##	27	145	437
Brantford		73	34	-53	103	72	-30	176	106	-40
Calgary		332	594	79	1,341	1,214	-9	1,673	1,808	8
Chilliwack		21	17	-19	43	90	109	64	107	67
Drummondville		26	13	-50	58	91	57	84	104	24
Edmonton		409	510	25	294	839	185	703	1,349	92
Fredericton		30	26	-13	99	74	-25	129	100	-22
Greater/Grand Sudbury		5	2	-60	12	2	-83	17	4	-76
Guelph		11	10	-9	40	8	-80	51	18	-65
Halifax		48	54	13	142	802	465	190	856	351
Hamilton		65	21	-68	841	69	-92	906	90	-90
Kamloops		4	2	-50	134	1	-99	138	3	-98
Kelowna		40	29	-28	245	20	-92	285	49	-83
Kingston		13	15	15	6	0	-100	19	15	-21
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		98	79	-19	920	324	-65	1,018	403	-60
Lethbridge		13	14	8	7	0	-100	20	14	-30
London		93	59	-37	215	116	-46	308	175	-43
Moncton		19	13	-32	303	257	-15	322	270	-16
Montréal		136	103	-24	873	986	13	1,009	1,089	8
Nanaimo		12	41	242	3	25	##	15	66	340
Oshawa		75	2	-97	378	411	9	453	413	-9
Ottawa-Gatineau		251	126	-50	997	730	-27	1,248	856	-31
Gatineau		57	3	-95	659	27	-96	716	30	-96
Ottawa		194	123	-37	338	703	108	532	826	55
Peterborough		28	51	82	0	16	##	28	67	139
Québec		89	45	-49	925	224	-76	1,014	269	-73
Red Deer		4	11	175	10	0	-100	14	11	-21
Regina		20	24	20	29	115	297	49	139	184
Saguenay		18	8	-56	8	32	300	26	40	54
St. Catharines-Niagara		135	81	-40	106	90	-15	241	171	-29
Saint John		30	18	-40	129	5	-96	159	23	-86
St. John's		28	31	11	2	24	##	30	55	83
Saskatoon		67	85	27	66	190	188	133	275	107
Sherbrooke		26	26	-	191	81	-58	217	107	-51
Thunder Bay		12	4	-67	2	14	##	14	18	29
Toronto		686	419	-39	2,813	1,885	-33	3,499	2,304	-34
Trois-Rivières		14	17	21	43	74	72	57	91	60
Vancouver		324	195	-40	1,998	1,566	-22	2,322	1,761	-24
Victoria		41	28	-32	558	435	-22	599	463	-23
Windsor		43	23	-47	79	63	-20	122	86	-30
Winnipeg		165	127	-23	583	445	-24	748	572	-24
Total		3,627	3,063	-16	15,112	12,013	-21	18,739	15,076	-20
Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		October 2023	November 2023	%	October 2023	November 2023	%	October 2023	November 2023	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		443	488	10	370	418	13	813	906	11
P.E.I.		290	92	-68	588	360	-39	878	452	-49
N.S.		1,586	1,508	-5	7,861	10,777	37	9,447	12,285	30
N.B.		917	745	-19	3,493	4,405	26	4,410	5,150	17
Qc		4,302	3,956	-8	33,030	22,015	-33	37,332	25,971	-30
Ont.		16,294	13,962	-14	82,970	47,296	-43	99,264	61,258	-38
Man.		1,493	1,695	14	888	5,532	##	2,381	7,227	204
Sask.		1,390	1,460	5	2,412	3,792	57	3,802	5,252	38
Alta.		15,077	14,979	-1	24,313	25,414	5	39,390	40,393	3
B.C.		5,550	5,181	-7	51,776	31,288	-40	57,326	36,469	-36
Canada (10,000+)		47,342	44,066	-7	207,701	151,297	-27	255,043	195,363	-23
Canada (All Areas)		59,662	56,268	-6	212,604	156,356	-26	272,264	212,624	-22
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		278	201	-28	2,316	4,488	94	2,594	4,689	81
Barrie		721	543	-25	1,008	1,668	65	1,729	2,211	28
Belleville - Quinte West		212	343	62	192	1,320	##	404	1,663	312
Brantford		178	327	84	792	864	9	970	1,191	23
Calgary		7,109	7,121	0	17,976	14,568	-19	25,085	21,689	-14
Chilliwack		252	234	-7	252	1,080	329	1,356	1,314	-3
Drummondville		117	118	1	468	1,092	133	585	1,210	107
Edmonton		6,457	6,306	-2	5,220	10,068	93	11,677	16,374	40
Fredericton		275	248	-10	216	888	311	491	1,136	131
Greater/Grand Sudbury		7	20	186	0	24	##	7	44	##
Guelph		146	93	-36	0	96	##	146	189	29
Halifax		729	641	-12	7,212	9,624	33	7,941	10,265	29
Hamilton		416	240	-42	13,980	828	-94	14,396	1,068	-93
Kamloops		140	22	-84	0	12	##	140	34	-76
Kelowna		479	356	-26	4,512	240	-95	4,991	596	-88
Kingston		269	147	-45	4,200	0	-100	4,469	147	-97
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		771	893	16	3,348	3,888	16	4,119	4,781	16
Lethbridge		281	196	-30	324	0	-100	605	196	-68
London		628	640	2	1,812	1,392	-23	2,440	2,032	-17
Moncton		277	211	-24	3,168	3,084	-3	3,445	3,295	-4
Montréal		1,127	1,016	-10	17,049	11,744	-31	18,176	12,760	-30
Nanaimo		95	610	##	1,272	300	-76	1,367	910	-33
Oshawa		743	24	-97	240	4,932	##	983	4,956	404
Ottawa-Gatineau		2,224	1,346	-39	13,176	8,760	-34	15,400	10,106	-34
Gatineau		389	29	-93	2,244	324	-86	2,633	353	-87
Ottawa		1,835	1,317	-28	10,932	8,436	-23	12,767	9,753	-24
Peterborough		342	425	24	0	192	##	342	617	80
Québec		285	501	76	7,704	2,688	-65	7,989	3,189	-60
Red Deer		87	112	29	204	0	-100	291	112	-62
Regina		195	272	39	912	1,380	51	1,107	1,652	49
Saguenay		171	99	-42	72	384	433	243	483	99
St. Catharines-Niagara		1,471	901	-39	2,400	1,080	-55	3,871	1,981	-49
Saint John		260	172	-34	0	60	##	260	232	-11
St. John's		331	349	5	276	288	4	607	637	5
Saskatoon		1,164	1,084	-7	1,356	2,280	68	2,520	3,364	33
Sherbrooke		153	303	98	1,416	972	-31	1,569	1,275	-19
Thunder Bay		86	35	-59	84	168	100	170	203	19
Toronto		5,136	4,332	-16	39,288	22,620	-42	44,424	26,952	-39
Trois-Rivières		209	202	-3	3,408	888	-74	3,617	1,090	-70
Vancouver		2,499	2,332	-7	32,244	18,792	-42	34,743	21,124	-39
Victoria		421	368	-13	8,364	5,220	-38	8,785	5,588	-36
Windsor		408	291	-29	1,668	756	-55	2,076	1,047	-50
Winnipeg		1,264	1,478	17	612	5,340	##	1,876	6,818	263
Data for 2022 based on 2016 Census Definitions and data for 2023 based on 2021 Census Definitions.
Source: CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)

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