Important and younger demographic influencing housing and consumer
TORONTO, April 29, 2015 /CNW/ - Today, nearly three-quarters of a
million non-permanent residents (NPRs) call Canada home, dramatically
influencing Canada's demographic and economic landscape, finds a new
report from CIBC World Markets.
"In Canada, it is common knowledge that immigration accounts for more
than three quarters of our population growth, but what is less known,
is the dramatic impact of the meteoric ascent in the number of
non-permanent residents (NPRs) on the nation's demographic landscape -
mainly among young Canadians," says Benjamin Tal, CIBC's Deputy Chief
Economist, who authored the report.
The report notes that the number of non-permanent residents in Canada
has climbed by more than 450,000 over the past decade to a record
770,000 - with 95 per cent being under the age of 45. Most
significantly, says Mr. Tal, is that the number between the ages of 25
and 44 has doubled since 2006 accounting for all of the growth in the
age group in Canada during this time.
"If not for the rapid growth of non-permanent residents, the number of
that economically important age group in the Canadian population would
have fallen. From both an economic and policy perspective,
non-permanent residents, in general, and temporary workers, in
particular, should no longer be viewed as a marginal and reversible
factor aimed at solving temporary mismatch issues in local job markets.
"Rather, they should be viewed as an important demographic force capable
of influencing and potentially altering the trajectories of
macro-economic variables such as housing activity and consumer
Their contribution, though, is far from uniform across the country, with
the most significant impact being felt in Ontario and British Columbia.
"If it were not for the rise in NPRs, Ontario would have experienced a
decline of 120,000 in the 25-to-44 age group," says Mr. Tal. "The
impact on British Columbia is also significant, with NPRs, accounting
for all of the growth in that age group."
Consequently, he says this demographic is helping reshape the country's
"It is not a coincidence that those two provinces are also the ones to
experience long-lasting strong housing market activity," he says. "In
fact, given the above demographic picture, it is fair to assume that
NPRs play an important role in demand for rental units in both
provinces - a factor that is largely behind the recent boom in the
condo market in cities like Toronto and Vancouver."
The impact on Alberta is relatively muted, he says, despite the fact
that the skill shortage in the province was one of the catalysts behind
the past changes to the temporary workers program.
As strong as the reported growth in NPRs in Canada, Mr. Tal believes
these numbers may actually understate the real tally.
The figures in the report are based on Statistics Canada's projections
that use 2012 actuals rather than data subsequently released by
Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC). The total non-permanent
resident estimate by Statistics Canada is about 2.4 percentage points
shy of CIC growth in 2013 and Mr. Tal believes that Statistics Canada's
projection of only 4.4 per cent growth for 2014 is "way too low."
"Based on preliminary CIC data, it is reasonable to expect an overall
2014 annual increase in NPRs of no less than eight per cent," says Mr.
He notes that recent changes to the temporary foreign workers program
will likely result in only a modest reduction in the stock of valid
With the NPR population sitting at a number that, collectively, is
enough to be Canada's seventh-largest city, slightly bigger than Quebec
City or Winnipeg, the "numbers are simply too large to ignore," says
Mr. Tal. "NPRs are a demographic force with significant macro-economic
implications. Any future policy aimed at limiting their growth should
be supplemented by an offsetting boost to immigration policies."
The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/feature2.pdf
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SOURCE CIBC World Markets
For further information:
Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets Inc. at (416) 956-3698, firstname.lastname@example.org or Kevin Dove, Head of External Communications at (416) 980-8835, email@example.com.