**Trade forecasts to 2030 confirm Canada will achieve its goal of
diversifying its export base away from North America
** Emerging markets' demand for high value-added goods will boost
Canadian export growth of industrial machinery and transportation
VANCOUVER, March 11, 2013 /CNW/ - The latest HSBC Global Connections
Trade Forecast details a shift towards the production of higher
value-added goods around the world, presenting opportunities for
forward thinking companies looking to expand.
Rapid industrialisation and increasing wages, coupled with maturing
consumer demand in many of the countries along the South-South corridor
are driving different types of global trade growth. This report
highlights how these trends are changing the types of goods imported,
manufactured and subsequently exported.
The top three markets for Canadian exports are currently the US, China
and the UK. However, the fastest growing corridors of Canada's export
growth by 2030 will be Asia and the Middle East, and exports to
Vietnam, China and India are expected to increase by 12% annually from
2021 to 2030.
Linda Seymour, Executive Vice President and Head of Commercial Banking,
HSBC Bank Canada said: "A highly educated and productive Canadian
workforce will continue to underpin growth of capital goods exports
from Canada. In fact, outside of natural resources, we expect that as
emerging markets mature and grow in size they will demand more
value-added goods from Canada, in particular transportation equipment
and industrial machinery."
As countries shift towards value-added sectors there are significant
opportunities for companies to evolve and grow. The reports for
countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh show a shift from basic
commodities trading in sectors such as Cereals or Sugar, to become a
refiner or producer of branded goods based on those raw materials. In
many of the developed markets there is a shift towards increasingly
specialised sectors such as Chemicals and Pharmaceutical products as
companies seek opportunities for higher returns.
This shift towards the production of higher value-added goods is
particularly evident in Asia, with a clear pattern emerging as Chinese
export growth in Information & Communications Technology and Industrial
Machinery gathers pace. This balances a declining rate of growth in
sectors such as Textiles, giving rise to opportunities for companies in
the smaller, faster growing countries around the region to win
contracts to produce these more basic goods.
James Emmett, HSBC's Global Head of Trade and Receivables Finance, said:
"Emerging markets are developing at a phenomenal pace and are set to
reshape world trade patterns over the next 20 years. By expanding
their operations in to new, higher value sectors, they are driving more
developed nations to specialise and diversify to compete. Understanding
which sectors are growing in which markets, delivers huge opportunities
for businesses as they plan for the future and aim to capitalise on
Emerging markets add ever increasing value to the supply chain
Countries making the move up the supply chain most notably are Malaysia
and Argentina. Malaysia's top exportable goods will shift from
lower-value sectors such as Animals and Vegetable Oils to higher-end
industrial machinery, which will make the largest contribution to
Malaysia's export growth by 2030. Argentina's top export sectors will
change from Animal Products to Transport Equipment and Industrial
Industrial machinery opportunity
Industrial Machinery, ranging from large power generating machinery to
small parts for domestic electrical items, will extend its dominance as
the world's top export sector. It will encompass around 25% of goods
exported among the top 25 trading nations by 2030, and contribute over
a third of the growth in total merchandise exports from 2013 according
to the Forecast.
Intra-regional trade and reliance on hub cities continues to play a
strong role in facilitating global trade flows, as companies look to
capitalise on new opportunities while managing their exposure in
rapidly developing markets.
Notes to Editors:
For a copy of the Global Connections Trade Forecast report and for
further information, log onto www.globalconnections.hsbc.com. An info graphic which portrays key findings from the latest trade
forecast is also available upon request.
HSBC's Trade forecast encompasses trade data for the 25 countries key to
About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modelled by Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts
bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC's own
analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full
bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods,
and balances between 180 pairs of countries.
Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional
reports and country specific reports on the following 25 countries:
Hong Kong, China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore,
Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK,
France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Korea,
Japan and Egypt.
Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full
consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages.
The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand
growth in the destination market and the exporter's competitiveness.
Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both
historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2013-15, 2016-20 and
Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - was founded in
1981 to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the
needs of economists and planners in government and business. It is now
one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, advice and
models, with over 500 clients. Oxford Economics commands a high degree
of professional and technical expertise, both in its own staff of over
70 professionals based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE,
Singapore, Philadelphia and New York, and through its close links with
Oxford University and a range of partner institutions in Europe and the
HSBC Holdings plc, the parent company of the HSBC Group, is
headquartered in London. The Group serves customers worldwide from
around 6,600 offices in 81 countries and territories in Europe, the
Asia-Pacific region, North and Latin America, and the Middle East and
North Africa. HSBC Bank Canada, a subsidiary of HSBC Holdings plc, is
the leading international bank in Canada. With assets of US$2,693 bn
at 31 December 2012, the HSBC Group is one of the world's largest
banking and financial services organizations.
SOURCE: HSBC Bank Canada
For further information:
Assistant Vice President, Public Affairs
HSBC Bank Canada
Senior Manager, Public Affairs
HSBC Bank Canada