MONCTON, NB, May 21, 2013 /CNW/ - New Brunswick's export story over the
next two years will be impacted by slower growth in refined petroleum
shipments that will mask solid growth in the forestry sector, according
to Export Development Canada's (EDC) Global Export Forecast.
EDC's Chief Economist, Peter Hall, was in Moncton today for a lunchtime
presentation to members of Tech South East to deliver his provincial
export forecast, where he predicted the province's exports will grow by
4 per cent in 2013 and 2 per cent in 2014.
"This year's gains come from a broad range of sources, and would be much
stronger were it not for the closing of the Brunswick Mine after 50
years of production," said Mr. Hall. "Next year, growth will be held
back by flat energy exports. Take energy exports out of the equation,
all other sectors are rising by a respectable 6 per cent in 2014 on
gains from forestry, agri-food and industrial goods."
Energy accounts for a dominant 72 per cent of New Brunswick's
international exports. Mr. Hall predicted that provincial exports in
this sector will grow by 4 per cent in 2013 before sliding towards zero
growth in 2014.
"Energy exports will get some lift from a double-digit increase in
natural gas prices this year," said Mr. Hall. "Modest increases in LNG
export volumes are included in our forecast, but with prices heading
up, volumes could be stronger. Production of refined petroleum products
should hold steady, getting a slight lift from a weaker Canadian
dollar. A full year of production at the Point Lepreau nuclear power
plant could bring a significant increase in electricity exports."
The forestry sector accounts for 10 per cent of the province's total
international sales. EDC's forecast predicts the sector to grow by 9
per cent this year and another 8 per cent in 2014.
"Wood product exports will receive a major boost from positive momentum
in U.S. housing, with starts expected to rise nearly 34 per cent this
year and another 24 cent in 2014," said Mr. Hall, who is bullish on the
U.S. economy. "Some previously closed mills have reopened, but capacity
constraints are likely to limit the province's ability to take full
advantage of stronger U.S. demand. Unfortunately, the outlook for the
rest of forestry isn't as good, with modest declines expected for both
newsprint and pulp this year and next.
Closure of the Brunswick mine will weigh on the industrial goods
forecast (6 per cent of total exports), but hidden in the numbers is
significant positive offset as production ramps up at the Sussex mine.
EDC's forecast also noted that the U.S. recovery that is taking shape
will mean solid growth for the province's machinery and equipment
producers and agri-food sales through 2014.
New Brunswick's exports to emerging markets account for 7 per cent of
the province's total, unchanged from 2008. Brazil tops the list of
emerging market destinations, followed by China, India and Turkey.
Nationally, Canadian merchandise exports are forecast to rise 8.6 per
cent in 2013 and 5 per cent in 2013, while economic growth (GDP) is
expected to rise 2.2 per cent this year and 1.9 next year. EDC is
forecasting global growth of 3.6 per cent in 2013 and 4.2 per cent in
EDC's semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global
export conditions including market- and sector-specific insights to
help Canadian exporting companies grow their international and minimize
risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be
prepared. Read EDC's Global Export Forecast.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial
solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their
international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by
more than 7,400 Canadian companies and their global customers in up
to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining
and a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis.
SOURCE: Export Development Canada
For further information:
Export Development Canada